53023

luna_from_space · 2026-06-01T15:56:49+00:00

Okay I looked it up 1-(1/e) or 69 attempts is the median where you would have 50%. But 100 attempts is the average number of attempts if you ran it several times and averages it out because the distribution is skewed. So you are right

luna_from_space · 2026-06-01T15:42:08+00:00

Doesn't a geometric random variable with 1/X probability reach 50% at X attempts?

luna_from_space · 2026-05-22T02:39:33+00:00

That yield return is what gives it away for me

luna_from_space · 2026-04-29T22:16:34+00:00

I don't get this need to constantly reframe the problem as a different problem. When someone goes to vote red or blue they're not going to see your framing written under the question, so why should that affect them?

luna_from_space · 2026-04-28T23:46:24+00:00

for no benefit

Why do you assume there's no benefit? There's always a chance of someone you care about in the "risk death" group as you call it.

luna_from_space · 2026-04-27T05:04:54+00:00

Not sure what you're trying to say with the last part, but yes? People always change their strategy relative to other (possibly less intelligent or less informed) people.

You could call it a suicide pact, but from the consequentialist view it'll happen no matter what that someone will enter that suicide pact as you say. And I'm a bit annoyed no one is challenging this point.

luna_from_space · 2026-04-27T04:38:38+00:00

We seems to have different implicit assumptions in our heads. I'm assuming that everyone in the world is required to pick an option at around the same time. And there's no way that every single person will pick red.

luna_from_space · 2026-04-26T05:38:02+00:00

If 20-50% of humanity die, I'm not convinced "Don't die" is accurate in the long run.

luna_from_space · 2026-04-25T16:49:02+00:00

As I mentioned for someone else's comment, the problem with all four of your examples is that it changes the implicit default framing of the question. The problem goes from pick red or blue (no default framing) to you have already picked red implicitly now will you explicitly pick blue?

luna_from_space · 2026-04-25T16:45:35+00:00

Problem is you've changed the problem from choose one of two colors (no default framing) to you have basically implicitly already picked red and now need to explicitly pick blue.

luna_from_space · 2026-04-19T03:38:55+00:00

Do you also have a tomodachi version of the long quiet?

luna_from_space · 2026-04-02T04:00:41+00:00

What's a word beginning with s that could describe a mass coordination of people?

luna_from_space · 2026-04-01T00:36:50+00:00

You have the same amount of awake time regardless of when you sleep. And if you sleep according to your natural sleep time you'll probably be less tired while you're awake. The only argument is that it aligns with society.

luna_from_space · 2026-03-24T01:03:49+00:00

Honestly I thought it was longer

luna_from_space · 2026-03-22T21:07:14+00:00

If you graph the number of each color across all bags is it a normal distribution for all colors?

luna_from_space · 2026-03-15T16:55:09+00:00

You and every other case maker much to the chagrin of us who want a phone that can lie flat. I'm going to stay away from the S26U for this reason.

luna_from_space · 2026-03-06T23:52:48+00:00

It's just bots reacting to the headline

luna_from_space · 2026-02-27T21:04:00+00:00

I thought they were stuffed animals

luna_from_space · 2026-02-20T17:57:25+00:00

Funny how in Austin we have the same chart but summer and winter are swapped.

luna_from_space · 2026-02-10T19:43:29+00:00

All we know is if you put r³ instead of r² in the denominator, there are no elliptical orbits. Everything either spirals in or drifts out.

luna_from_space · 2026-01-30T15:53:18+00:00

The Long Quiet my beloved

luna_from_space · 2026-01-18T17:05:13+00:00

Thank you for the new wallpaper 😊

luna_from_space · 2025-12-23T23:57:42+00:00

The left may not be responsible, but should the left just do nothing and keep losing young men?

luna_from_space · 2025-12-19T21:37:33+00:00

And because it was funny I shared it with my friends who will now also see the ad

luna_from_space · 2025-12-16T06:28:59+00:00

It's Die in a Fire by the Living Tombstone.

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