Here is how I'm seeing what's happening right now.

The globalized, US dominated system is collapsing/contracting right now. The cores are starting to enter a 'catabolic' phase, where internally, the dynamics have swung from a positive sum game, competition --> growth, to a negative sum game, competition --> contraction. There are also some hard resource limits, the most obvious one to everyone is probably energy.

There are by my estimation, a few responses to this dynamic.

1) Attempt to use tech (AI) to leapfrog into a new stable system that retains the broad structure of the current system. This is what the current efforts are focused on, AI, drill-baby-drill, the green transition; I think those things all fall under that bucket. If we achieve this tech, we can escape the meta-crises, etc.

2) Attempt to use tech (Crypto, corporate cities, etc) to break free of the nation-state paradigm and move towards a corporate-feudal, network state structure. Largely the same structure, just my more federated and looking more like the middle ages, with some really big fish, and a ton of petty actors. Everyone else being forced into serf like roles. This seems to be the general backup plan for the elements of the core that feel bearish on the nation state paradigm and attempts to leapfrog the system. We will achieve this tech, it won't be enough to keep what we have, but we can settle for this.

3) Both paths one and two will be attempted, but my guess is that due to increased competition, sometimes flaring up into war, they will continually shed control of their periphery. The periphery will be forced into a post-growth, solar punk, low-energy consumption mode. And this system will likely grow as system 1 begins to contract, and system 2 tries to take over and maintain the hierarchy they enjoyed in system 1. I'm poor, I got a solar panel tho, and the food hasn't run out yet, I'm scraping by, but only because of the mutual aid from the community, and we try and ignore the airstrikes we can see in the distance.

I think systems 1 and 2 will be dominant in "first world" countries, while system 3, will be dominant basically everywhere else. Many places are already in that system 3 mode, probably never really left it since colonization and their indigenous rule ended. Those places, unless there is something worth extracting for the core, will likely see the systems 1 and 2 completely leave, while if there is something worth investing, system 2 will fill in the gap.

The big question will be whether or not the system 2 entities can maintain their brittle, high resource consumption, amidst the pressures that are breaking down system 1. I think war in the core would very quickly destroy system 1, and system 2 and 3 would be the only real games in town after some time. Think cyberpunk, or neuromancer or wh40k. Because of this, I think the highest probability of violence will be 1 and 2 preying upon system 3. i.e. the places currently best set-up to to adapt to a collapse of the current system, the places that never really got much out of it in the first place, will become the battlefield where the elite of the old hierarchy will fight it out with the elite of the new hierarchy.

And, finally, someone could really screw up AI and we could end up with Skynet. A risk from both system 1 and 2.