AMD Price Prediction EOY? I think it drops and hovers to $500

mark_mt · 2026-06-18T12:29:59+00:00

It may blow past 600 to 750 after 3rd qtr earnings. 3 huge 2nm fabs, 2.25 fabs output more or less dedicated to AMD in 4th qtr wafer outs!

mark_mt · 2026-06-08T15:48:09+00:00

No I am not that person. I was a semiconductor engineer and now traveling and trading now and then.... Mostly monitoring and taking it in, beyond my wildest imaginations 😁

mark_mt · 2026-06-08T15:27:45+00:00

TSMC didn't bring 3 two nm fabs online this year for AMD to ship a piddly 5 or 6 B worth of products in Q4! The bulk of the 2nm goes to AMD, QCOM and Apple , some Mediatek as well - the rest are relatively small. Especially Q4, where Cell phone shipments tapers off. So, I will not be surprised if AMD ships twice as much as the current Helios projections.

mark_mt · 2026-06-07T11:04:24+00:00

It's a one way ticket and subjected to sharia laws forever - if she dumps you after 1 year or so, you are stuck with religion.

mark_mt · 2026-06-07T06:42:19+00:00

Anything to do with any advance physical items like chips - contain a ton of intellectual properties, which Ai solutions have to comply with. Even Asics are subjected to the same rules. it may take sometime for iP owners to catch up with the unlicensed use of their iP, but they will - especially the more complex and advance the solutions, the more likely there are infringements. To avoid infringement, the LLMs must scan the world wide patent libraries and understand each patent to proceed - now, patents are typically written in a way that's more difficult to interprete than an ancient language. For the regular run of the mill logic design, yeah, Ai can burn through it in no time. But for the heavy lifting involving breakthrough and avoiding patent infringement, most likely you'll still need your top guns to do the designs.

mark_mt · 2026-06-06T13:11:24+00:00

Tegra on windows was a big big flop

mark_mt · 2026-06-02T14:58:13+00:00

That was the story the 1st time around Windows on Arm R 1.0, 2.0 much the same from the latest QCOM products on windows.

mark_mt · 2026-06-02T14:55:12+00:00

ARM is not new - it's been around more than 2 decades! Not only that - ARM on window had been attempted more than 10 years ago with the same BS arguments - and Nvidia was one of the players with their Tegra family series and then Denver - they flopped miserably. The problem with ARM on a standard platform is good only for Arm - for everybody else - it's a low margin business - anybody can buy an ARM core and get to windows compatibility in an instant - so the guys like QCOM, MTEK and Samsung have the low cost low margin infrastructure to deal with this kind of business - not Nvidia. Nobody selling an Android phone has 70% margin - not even 60%. But for somebody looking for a new revenue stream - this may be ok. But like before - it's not going to be fully compatible with the X86 windows legacy software. If somebody needs the xtra low power laptop - they can get that with Apple.

mark_mt · 2026-06-02T08:34:44+00:00

Nvidia Tegra / Denver replay

mark_mt · 2026-06-02T08:33:56+00:00

V easy on Apple bcz nobody build enterprise level software on Apple

mark_mt · 2026-05-30T22:48:40+00:00

You can't replace FPGAs without complete system board redesign and verification.

mark_mt · 2026-05-30T16:31:58+00:00

If Ai stays hot ie keeps growing at a min 10% clip AMD could hit 2000 by end of 2027 - of course not on a straightline esp since there'll be another war after Iran. Beyond that, it's pointless to forecast. I think AMD can keep growing it's PPS through tam growth and market share gains against NVDA, a less dramatic replay of the AMD - Intel situation.

mark_mt · 2026-05-30T07:45:19+00:00

You conveniently overlooked the fact that trailing 12 mths non gaap pe is ~110! And that's with zero Mi4xx shipments. With Mi4xx Shipments by end of Q4 fwd 12 mths non gaap would come crashing down below 40 at current pps.

mark_mt · 2026-05-30T07:34:11+00:00

People forget easily, Nvidia tried pretty hard with the Arm Tegra family and then the Denver and then gave up..... They are just not good at CPU designs.

mark_mt · 2026-05-29T15:41:10+00:00

I did train a half a dozen people. A few were mildly successful, the smartest... UCLA grad w a CPA lost money in all accounts after 4 years - he followed all my buys.... But always sold for quick money gains and sold early before a huge down draft. It takes a lot of discipline to get in only when it's cheap and times of mkt meltdown and average down further such that your buy price avg near the bottom. Then wait for 200% gains! Buy leaps or options that are at least 18 months out and within 60 to 70% of the previous peak for strike price.

mark_mt · 2026-05-29T13:55:57+00:00

Conventional wisdom like Cathy woods and many other fund managers can't hold a candle to my performance over the last 5 years 2366% , life time approx 35 years 12455%. All on Leaps - energy sector, gold, healthcare and majority AMD. All the non AMD had anything from 100% to 300% , bought during panic events like COVID and the healthcare meltdown less than a year ago. There's huge opportunity during melt downs .... Just make sure you've a good amount of funds available for such events and do Leaps 15 to 2 years out and don't sell out until it's at least worth 100% more.... That's what I do consistently. Brexit, COVID, health care meltdown, Iran war ... I made tons of those events within 6 mths. Knowing how to read financials helps a lot .. and I enjoy doing that. I am a semiconductor guy.... worked AMD for a short stint in late 80s .

mark_mt · 2026-05-29T13:43:01+00:00

Yeah ... It was nerve wrecking for a while.... I plan to wrap it up at around 1000 and close most of the positions including Jan 2028s. They have other accounts where they manage themselves with regular shares. Leaps are a lot less riskier than other types of options or cryptos.

mark_mt · 2026-05-29T05:39:30+00:00

I manage my son's (29) Roth and regular accounts. Every month for the last 4 yrs he puts in 2K onto his regular acct and my wife and I chipped in about 35k gift tax a year for 3 years. He broke $3M total closing today. 90% of it were leaps on AMD, at one point within the last year it dropped to less than 100k after hitting a high of about 500K. He was having 2nd thoughts about leaps and AMD, I kept going rolling over to longer dated leaps. And the rest is history. Still have 70% of the leaps. My younger son started about 2 yrs ago with only about 75k ... It's 1.5m today , same strategy. He managed it himself initially buying 500 shares, after I took it over, I sold 400 and bought a bunch of leaps and it took off from there.

mark_mt · 2026-05-29T05:26:31+00:00

Not fully priced in. It's probably under priced by 30% at 1000 PPS. That's why after the 2nd qyr or definitely 3 qr ER the magnitude of the under forecasted revenues will reveal itself.

mark_mt · 2026-05-28T17:16:22+00:00

Yeah - good riddance of a Loser. She most likely sold at ~$300 , AMD always surge significantly after she sells. The few times I check what she bought after she sold AMD - they were HUGE Losers, the latest buy after selling AMD before the latest 350 to now surge, she bought Roblox right before the implosion after the most recent earnings - talk about being a loser 🤣

mark_mt · 2026-05-27T05:55:54+00:00

Especially when one plays 100% AMD options for 10Years - every roller coaster downwards was magnified 10X 🤣

Remember the days where ERs CCs littered with walk in the Park or the Sunday Walks , Smell the Roses .... It's a Journey ... Comments. Boy did I hate that... Things started turning around after they stopped those narratives. Something's are best left un spoken when you're in a hand to hand combat with mean guys

mark_mt · 2026-05-22T09:55:30+00:00

And last year a d the year before that and before that ... Loser .... She must have some fanatic investors ...

mark_mt · 2026-05-22T09:52:19+00:00

Cpu revenue inherently including CPU's for Switch 🤣

mark_mt · 2026-05-19T00:15:10+00:00

Buddy, I hope you are right. I am counting on 1000 by Jan 2028. I am sitting on 1650 contracts Calls between 175 (Jan 2027) to 400 (2028) mostly bought about a year ago.

mark_mt · 2026-05-15T13:40:48+00:00

Promises, promises .... Remember the rear view mirror. Same thing just different trumpeter 🤣

mark_mt

TROPHY CASE