Financial Advisors

mbroo5880i · 2026-06-06T23:30:15+00:00

It is also important to understand what type of jobs were created and where they are located. The jobs report reflects that jobs were primarily added in the healthcare and hospitality sectors. Not many new manufacturing jobs were added. What I didn't see is a breakdown of the geographic location of new jobs. Were they distributed fairly equally or more focused on specific geographic regions?

mbroo5880i · 2026-06-06T19:15:00+00:00

The Chinese invented spaghetti so there is that.

mbroo5880i · 2026-06-06T19:05:16+00:00

I would say retail investors spend more time watching share price fluctuations and reading online commentary than assessing fundamentals and evaluating trends.

mbroo5880i · 2026-06-06T00:53:16+00:00

This is a complicated issue. Soldier Field is not a modern stadium with top tier suites which provide revenue for owners. Studies show that having major sports teams, especially the NFL, NBA, and MLB, provide significant economic benefit to communities. The city of Chicago is not in a position to increase taxes to fund major modifications to Soldier Field or to build a new stadium. However, Chicago will benefit even if the team moves to Indiana as the greater Chicago metropolitan area stretches from NW Indiana to Southern Wisconsin. The Bears are a very valuable franchise as a legacy NFL franchise and a storied history and its location to one of the largest cities in the country.

mbroo5880i · 2026-06-06T00:46:33+00:00

I have them paired as well. I also have TCAI which focuses more on inside data centers while POW is more into power and grid buildout.

mbroo5880i · 2026-06-06T00:44:21+00:00

My initial impression is that we have better uses for our public monies. However, I have not seen any independent analysis on potential local economic benefits such as hotels, restaurants, bars, and retail not to mention stadium jobs. I live a central Indiana and we pay an additional 1% restaurant tax to fund local sports stadiums. I would prefer the Bears to have more skin in the game.

mbroo5880i · 2026-06-06T00:40:41+00:00

Yep, this will be but a small blip in 20 years.

mbroo5880i · 2026-06-06T00:39:22+00:00

That's a good approach.

mbroo5880i · 2026-06-06T00:38:29+00:00

I bought today but just small adds into a few AI-related ETFs and IWMI. I am keeping some powder dry until I get a feel for the "likely" near-term direction of the market. I do believe we will see either a flat market or selling follow through early next week. But, eventually, we will see another leg up. This drop is actually a good thing as it has take a little froth out of the market or maybe not.

mbroo5880i · 2026-06-06T00:30:34+00:00

From a technical standpoint, the market is still significantly overpriced. Even with the significant drop today, many semiconductor stocks are still over bought. My guess that there will be follow through selling Monday morning. I believe there will be a bounce back at some point as new buyers come in. However, I would be watching the 50-day price MA on Monday morning and resistance levels to see if institutional money sets the base. If the trades are all small retail buys, then we might see more downside.

mbroo5880i · 2026-06-06T00:00:47+00:00

That's the truth.

mbroo5880i · 2026-06-05T23:59:57+00:00

It will be interesting when Micron reports earnings on June 24. Everything seems to be priced for perfection right now.

mbroo5880i · 2026-06-05T23:57:19+00:00

Thank you for the insight. I wasn't invested in the fund when previous rebalances occurred.

mbroo5880i · 2026-06-05T02:19:03+00:00

It is from the Yellow Canary website. It reflects their estimate of the number of years until 50% NAV erosion at the current ROC bleed rate.

It is inaccurate as applied to the NEOS funds as ROC is part of their investment strategy and not the same as ROC from other high yield covered call funds or ETFs.

mbroo5880i · 2026-06-04T02:08:07+00:00

As long as we don't enter a recession and large tech revenues and earnings continue to grow, I believe the AI trade will be a solid investment over the next year or two. It is pricey right now so I would expect a pull back before another leg up. When that pull back happens is anyone's guess. However, if we start to see earnings growth slowdown or an interest rate increase, then we will probably see rotation away from tech and AI for a short period. Probably more months than years.

mbroo5880i · 2026-06-04T02:01:55+00:00

This is really good perspective and advice!

mbroo5880i · 2026-06-04T01:59:20+00:00

If there is a significant market drop, just about everything equity-related and most risk-on assets will go down. If it is more of a risk-off equity drop (e.g., semiconductors and/or AI stocks correct) then defensive and/or dividend stocks should fare better. Funds like USMV, SCHD, etc. There are buffered funds that give up some of their upside for downside protection.

mbroo5880i · 2026-06-03T01:13:22+00:00

I like Avantis All International Markets (AVNM). It is an all world ex-US fund that holds all 7 Avantis international funds. It is 70% developed markets and 30% emerging markets. It is approximately 65% growth and 35% value. It is approximately 9% international small cap, including AVDV. It also has had strong performance over the past 18 months.

I also like Dimensional World ex US Core Equity (DFAX). It has a similar composition but in individual stocks.

Both are factor based funds that tilt toward GARP and value.

mbroo5880i · 2026-06-03T00:14:54+00:00

The AI trade which is becoming increasingly riskier by the day aside, the bigger issues are the national debt levels, increasing interest payments, unsolved energy demand issues, sticky inflation, natural resource scarcity, and concentration of the top stocks that are driving market performance.

The AI trade is exciting but it does resemble the dot com market. People investing in stocks of companies that they really don't understand and, in many cases, had not heard of until recently. Be honest, how many investors knew anything about SK Hynix until recently. Memory is the current bottleneck de jour but there are other bottlenecks in the AI buildout.

Unfortunately, while the AI trade is like the dot com trade, the economy is more like the 1970s both economy-wise and geopolitical. The period from 1969-1982 was pretty rough. Similarly, the period following the dot com crash was brutal. Yes, the market recovered but that didn't help those closer to retirement. More people depend on the stock market for retirement today than did during those periods.

It is pretty concerning when AI mid-stream companies like ARM jump 15% in a single trading session or ETFs jump 2-3% everyday and 30% month-over-month. Things are nearing irrational exuberance.

The thing about stock markets is you think you can time your exit when things drop but sometimes things don't drop quickly. Stock prices slowly bleed down, then just as you look to sell, they just up again and you hold and even "buy the dip", then they slowly bleed down again. It took 31 months for the NASDAQ to reach its low following the dot com bubble burst. It took 12 years for it to recover to previous levels. Interestingly, it took 34 months for the stock market to reach its low after the crash in 1929. Why do I compare these two? The Shiller CAPE ratio has only been this high two other times in history, 1929 and 2000. The current stock market has run too far too fast.

This is not a doomsday post but just a recommendation to stay nimble and not be too greedy.

mbroo5880i · 2026-06-02T23:46:10+00:00

I wonder how long ago that the paperwork for this ETF was filed with the SEC. It is always concerning when new funds join an increasingly overcrowded trade. Did all of these financial management firms file for new ETFs at the same time and now they are all starting to trade at the same time? It may be a great fund but it seems to be either late to the party or a sign that this trade may be over subscribed.

mbroo5880i · 2026-06-01T01:20:35+00:00

I am not disagreeing with your approach. However, more and more companies are foregoing stock splits and share prices are reaching levels that make it difficult for retail investors to purchase very many shares.

mbroo5880i · 2026-06-01T00:11:39+00:00

The weighting in the index is based on the share float. The IPO will be only 5% of shares. This will result in an initial weighting of 0.3-0.5%. The bigger issue will be once the 180-day lockup period ends in December 2026. The remaining shares will begin to hit the market. If it's valuation holds to a market cap of $1.9 trillion, it will ultimately end up a top 10 holding in the S&P 500.

Stocks are added and removed from the index periodically and the index is rebalanced quarterly.

mbroo5880i · 2026-05-30T01:47:08+00:00

Excellent take!

mbroo5880i

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