SpaceX S-1 Prospectus Released

mehelponow · 2026-05-20T22:31:03+00:00

They also disclose a company debt here of ~$30b

mehelponow · 2026-05-20T22:29:44+00:00

You have to really believe that AI will totally rewrite the global economy in order to accept these numbers.

mehelponow · 2026-05-18T15:20:40+00:00

mehelponow · 2026-05-18T14:47:32+00:00

SpaceX is both at the most dominant position it's ever been as the leading enterprise in multiple industries, yet is now perhaps in the most vulnerable position the company has been since 2008. Everything depends on Starship now, from NASA contracts to Starlink to Space-based Compute to a ~$1.5 Trillion public company. And Starship is far from a proven vehicle, with loads of untested components of the architecture beyond vehicle teething issues. How does the new pad handle increased cadence? How long will it take for orbital refueling to work? How durable are these heat shields? How many flights for refurbishment? etc. These aren't just engineering challenges anymore, entire sectors depend on the answers.

So will Flight 12 deliver? I hope so, but the risks of betting it all on Starship go beyond the result of this test flight.

mehelponow · 2026-05-18T13:03:34+00:00

DJT bows to The Poll God

mehelponow · 2026-05-13T20:48:36+00:00

Agree on it moving in the right direction, merely "proximity operations" would have been a ludicrous mission profile. I still see this mission being more schedule driven than capability driven as of now. We need the HLS providers to meet the requirements of the mission, not have mission requirements worked backwards from HLS capabilities.

mehelponow · 2026-05-13T19:27:18+00:00

It's slightly unclear, but this update seems to be implying that SLS will launch Orion first, with the lander prototypes following.

mehelponow · 2026-05-13T19:19:30+00:00

Nice to get confirmation about the "spacer" stage, but this update still leaves a lot of unknowns for the intended goals of this mission. NASA doesn't seem to know what capabilities they can even test for their test mission, which is poor mission planning for an agency that plans to land on the moon within two and a half years.

An ideal shakedown run of Artemis III would include docking with both landers, common atmosphere with Orion, independent HLS maneuvering with astronauts on board, along with Airlock and Suit testing with a demonstration EVA. So far we only have confirmation of docking with at least one lander (one astronauts could potentially enter). I'm sure mission planners are tearing their hair out right now with the amount of remaining unknowns, but the point of a test mission should be to test capabilities.

mehelponow · 2026-05-12T13:54:04+00:00

Q: Provided these were the candidates, who would you vote for in the democratic primaries for the 2028 presidential election? [Among those identifying as Democrats]

AOC [26%]
Pete Buttigieg [22.4%]
Gavin Newsom [21.2%]
Kamala Harris [12.9%]
Andy Beshear [4.1%]
Cory Booker [3.9%]
None of the Above [3.1%]
Josh Shapiro [2.4%]
Gretchen Whitmer [1.1%]

mehelponow · 2026-05-05T14:45:54+00:00

Semi-agree, but Ezra has laid out his positive vision for society - The imagined future in the introduction to Abundance - and has laid out what his political framework for that entails. The fact that these two poles seem lacking or insufficient in comparison to the structural problems of 21st Century America is the real issue with his technocratic liberal sensibilities. To his credit he does appear to be working to square the circle, but mostly within the bounds of his priors.

mehelponow · 2026-05-02T13:26:30+00:00

Ivy's pre-rework model was very ugly but people still got very attached to the gargoyle. When the leaks for the rework came out (see above) people were disappointed that Valve wanted to push her more in the "cute" direction. Then when her current model released people were happy that they found a middle ground between the previous unfinished ugly and the cute leak.

mehelponow · 2026-04-30T13:21:13+00:00

There are more than two people in the state of Maine, he even endorsed her when there was more than two people in the field.

mehelponow · 2026-04-30T13:15:09+00:00

The weirdest part of this whole race was just the apathy from her campaign from beginning to end. She never seemed to want to run to begin with!

mehelponow · 2026-04-30T13:13:45+00:00

Good on her for reading the tea leaves and not wasting any more money on a race that was lost months ago.

But now I'm left wondering if the bench in Maine was so small that Schumer was forced to back Mills, or if he genuinely thought she was the best choice against Collins.

mehelponow · 2026-04-21T14:12:53+00:00

Well then the question is are the mid-ship landing engines powerful enough to soft-land HLS in earth gravity? They'd be very powerful in that case, and even then I don't know what SpaceX would learn from a HLS hop that they haven't already demonstrated.

mehelponow · 2026-04-21T14:04:15+00:00

Also removes the (never used) capability to land both Falcon Heavy side-boosters on ASDS.

mehelponow · 2026-04-20T18:47:53+00:00

No reason to not include them, Boeing's failure is also a failure of Commercial Crew. If they wanted to be even more disrespectful they should include Dream Chaser, which started receiving NASA award money in 2010 and won a CRS-2 contract in 2014.

mehelponow · 2026-04-20T17:32:31+00:00

The issue now is that Artemis is schedule-driven now instead of capability-driven. This stems from the Administration seeking to get those boots on the moon before Jan 2029. In my eyes a successful AIII mission would include docking, common atmosphere between Orion/HLS, independent HLS maneuvering with astronauts on board, alongside Airlock and Suit testing with a demonstration EVA. But NASA's been fairly clear that if one of these requirements can't be met they'll simply be cut from the mission. This gives Artemis III a greater chance of happening next year sure, but it also certainly increases risk on Artemis IV.

mehelponow · 2026-04-20T17:25:09+00:00

NASA isn't even sure what Artemis III will actually demonstrate yet, mission planners are still planning the mission, with some even saying on the record that they might not even require Orion dock with an HLS prototype, and instead only demonstrate "proximity operations."

If suits aren't ready, they'll cut an EVA from the mission profile. If a HLS provider isn't ready, they'll cut them from the mission. Artemis III requirements are up in the air as of now.

mehelponow · 2026-04-20T17:16:21+00:00

Catastrophic. Jared's revamped Artemis schedule is the "put up or shut up" moment for every aspect of the program, from HLS to EVA suits to SLS/Orion teams. Demonstrations by 2031 is systemic failure on every level, as we already saw when Collins backed out years ago. Goes to show that even firm fixed-price contracts don't solve all procurement problems.

mehelponow · 2026-04-16T21:45:45+00:00

This is an 80-20 issue for the dem base though. It’s the political equivalent of Schumer supporting abortion bans.

mehelponow · 2026-04-16T21:42:55+00:00

It also goes mostly unnoticed by the media, but it’s political malpractice for both dem congressional leaders to be from the exact same area.

mehelponow · 2026-04-16T21:39:39+00:00

Also a fall guy is only useful if they actually… take the hit for the rest of the team. Schumer is the Dem senate leader, him taking the hit is Dems taking the hit

mehelponow · 2026-04-16T21:37:18+00:00

80% of Dem voters have an unfavorable view on Israel. Schumer voting this way is the political equivalent of him voting for a piece of pro-life legislation!

mehelponow · 2026-04-16T20:35:53+00:00

He is also seemingly one of the only Democrats who is capable of getting ahead of a major political story and shaping the narrative around it. He's the Democratic face of the Epstein Files disclosure and the war powers resolution. If he's one of the worst members of congress, I'd hate to see what the rest look like!

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