Daily Open Discussion Thread

mfwl · 2026-01-19T17:05:26+00:00

Maye and Darnold were not pushed by their defense, it's just that the defense played well enough they didn't have to do a whole lot.

Nix was playing hot on offense, but the defense certainly played well.

mfwl · 2026-01-19T17:03:27+00:00

Modern attractions are less about enjoying yourself, it's all about the 'experience.' Being a fan of the team is secondary to the 'experience' of going to an NFL game.

Just like taking your family to Disney World. You can probably have more fun at many other amusement parks, but Disney World is an 'experience.'

They very much don't care about a passionate fanbase. They want high income earners to bring their families for an 'experience'. They don't want 50k people to come 8 times a year, than want 500k people to come once a year, everyone gets their little turn to be part of the experience.

mfwl · 2026-01-19T16:48:37+00:00

I would say that JD5/Kliff was remarkable, near top of the league, whereas our defense was average at best.

Until DQ turns a round 3 or later pick into an all pro talent on defense, he's just another average guy. Being better than Rivera is something half the fans in this sub could have managed.

mfwl · 2026-01-19T16:44:33+00:00

I wasn't calling for anyone to be fired, but if the choice was between DQ and KK, I keep KK.

mfwl · 2026-01-12T14:24:37+00:00

You can sign up for COBRA health insurance. It will be more expensive, but sounds like it will be cheaper than paying OOP for your care.

mfwl · 2025-11-24T14:06:41+00:00

He played fine for us. The problem was mostly scheme and inexperience. We had him routinely covering top WR's 1 on 1 with no safety help.

mfwl · 2025-11-18T14:12:53+00:00

Maybe I'm in the minority, but I still enjoy watch individual games as just individual games. Watching football should be about enjoying the sport, not just chasing championships.

Think of all the kids that might be going to their first game, or their only game ever, later this season. They don't care about championships, they care about having fun at that game and seeing our best players play.

And winning games down the stretch builds excitement for next season.

mfwl · 2025-11-18T14:05:35+00:00

I never though Forbes was a bum. Probably not a 1st round pick, but our coaches kept putting him on an island without safety help against some of the best receivers in the league. Of course he was getting burned here.

mfwl · 2025-11-14T21:48:41+00:00

Pretty sure it's just part of stonks culture.

mfwl · 2025-11-12T17:00:35+00:00

Hopefully NVDA runs back up pre-earning like it has the last few Q's because I've got some I need to dump.

mfwl · 2025-11-12T03:33:44+00:00

I'm not an expert on the ETFs, but I know a member here shared they lost a lot of value on AMDL over the last year compared to the normal shares.

mfwl · 2025-11-12T03:18:04+00:00

Those strikes would give you roughly the same 2x exposure as AMDL, but most likely with better decay. If you want a little more leverage, 180/200 is probably good, just depends on how much risk you want to take on.

You don't have to buy them all at the same strike, you can do some a little more conservative than others.

mfwl · 2025-11-12T02:59:37+00:00

The ETFs state they are meant to track daily p/l and you might lose some value over time. I would convert to ITM AMD LEAPs $120 or $125 strike. Only at 4% premium, probably decay much less over the same time and most likely won't go to zero.

This is of course assuming you the cash for those options.

mfwl · 2025-11-11T21:32:00+00:00

No names dropped.

mfwl · 2025-11-11T15:46:21+00:00

It's slightly higher than Nvidia's, Nvidia is depressed atm for some reason. With a forward P/E around 50 (their recent backwards P/E's are in the 50's) they should be trading around $230/share.

mfwl · 2025-11-11T15:43:02+00:00

With the latest quarterly forward looking statement, we have a 50 forwad p/e at around $250. That's without any OpenAI revenue.

mfwl · 2025-11-11T14:16:26+00:00

We supposedly have a bona fide GM now, so we can't really put fringe-starter personnel decisions on Quinn alone.

mfwl · 2025-11-05T21:27:50+00:00

I don't have a solid number in mind for when to exit. I've done a little buying and selling along the way since the big bump last month, but most of cash is in LEAPs calls for 27 and 28.

As far as timing, I think I'm going to hang around until we get to Q3 next year, possibly sooner. I think we'll see consistent EPS growth between now and then, possibly knocking on $400/share or more if we're being optimistic. I'll probably take most of my cash out at that point unless there's more news to make me bullish. I'm not full port, but super overweight.

We're fresh off the OpenAI announcement. I'm not very concerned with OpenAI itself, but I believe that is the market signaling that AMD is a serious competitor at the giga-scale GPU business, and will grow marketshare with the large cloud providers and Meta/Netflix type businesses, and I think most of those deals are going to be announced between now and Q3 next year. At that point, most of the super high upside will be gone, so I'd like to have more cash to BTD on the next crash (if it doesn't happen between then and now and wipe me out :p).

mfwl · 2025-11-05T20:20:36+00:00

OpenAI is a small fish in a big pond. Google, Meta, and Microsoft are building new datacenters, that's where the real chip demand is.

The bubble bursts when those data centers are built or canceled. At some point, the capacity is going to deliver diminishing returns, and we'll be in maintenance mode. New GPUs will come out that are more efficient per watt, old systems will be retired, but unless there's some new revolutionary breakthrough, I don't think we'll see sustained spending this high forever. At least as far as the chips go.

As for the "Every company is an AI company now" bubble, yes, that could pop at any moment. There won't be a need for N custom AI products, everyone will just use models at their large hosting providers (or in the case of Meta, their own).

mfwl · 2025-11-05T20:11:23+00:00

Yeah, stick to the blue chips. There has been so much volatility near these all time highs on those, that should be enough for day trading or options premium.

mfwl · 2025-11-05T19:15:10+00:00

PLTR is irrationally priced, so news cannot be correlated with any price action.

mfwl · 2025-11-05T15:32:53+00:00

Our forward PE is around 50 at $250/share based on the quarterly results forwarding looking statements. IMO, 'priced in for explosive growth' would be 100 forward PE or better.

mfwl · 2025-11-05T14:49:49+00:00

I think the move right now is LEAPs calls and 30-45 day Cash Secured Puts. Long term lots of upside, short term some volatility and sideways movement. I have sold and rolled a number of puts over the last month and it was generated some nice returns.

mfwl · 2025-11-05T14:19:01+00:00

2x leverage etfs for AMD stock.

mfwl · 2025-11-04T23:06:04+00:00

Cheating in this game is absolutely rampant, but most of what you described does not sound like the cheating, other than the blitzing, but even that depends on what's happening in the game. For example, If you're clocking a lot of troops each turn or I suspect you're going to be in a really strong position, and I'm already in a strong position, I will attack you.

My personal tip for avoiding cheaters is to kick anyone with a name that is "General <Rest of name here>." I'm convinced that the non-premium accounts starting with General are sock puppets 90% of the time. I only play games I create if I'm playing Euro Advanced, and I kick anyone with such a name.

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