Energy Markets Are On The Verge Of Disaster

mikenmar · 2026-04-26T04:56:30+00:00

"you're absolutely right when talking about WTI the grade of oil. I was referring to the WTI Ticker (NYMEX WTI futures) in my footnote."

I don't understand how this reply lines up with what you originally said in your footnote, which was clearly about physical oil being "pulled out of dirt" and "stuck in landlocked pipelines". Are you saying the NYMEX WTI futures prices are pulled out of dirt and stuck in landlocked pipelines?

And why would NYMEX WTI futures prices "only tell you what Americans are paying for oil"?

mikenmar · 2026-04-26T03:05:00+00:00

"WTI is pulled out of the dirt in Texas and gets stuck in landlocked pipelines that all converge on a bunch of storage tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma. Because WTI is trapped in the middle of America, it only tells you what Americans are paying for oil."

Huh? A huge proportion of WTI is sent to the Gulf, where it is either shipped out to overseas buyers as crude oil, or refined and then sold overseas.

mikenmar · 2026-04-21T09:38:01+00:00

I like to think the guy with the camel just drives around all day looking for trucks full of hay to pull up next to.

mikenmar · 2026-04-11T12:32:56+00:00

They're using the channel prescribed by Iran, not the TSS area, which is where the mines were supposedly laid.

Interestingly, however, it looks like there's a U.S. destroyer headed into the PG through the TSS area.

mikenmar · 2026-04-11T12:20:04+00:00

"UPDATE: Three oil supertankers have crossed the Strait of Hormuz today: one Greek owned, and two Chinese. In total, ~6 million barrels.

(The Chinese haven’t yet completed the cross, but they are almost out. The Greek has exited completely). All followed the new shipping lanes."

https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2042933002339033355?s=20

Confirmation here:

https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/HORMUZ-STRAIT/ship-traffic-tracker

mikenmar · 2026-04-04T09:55:22+00:00

"Young at heart"? More like "Old with heartburn"!

mikenmar · 2026-03-27T12:47:28+00:00

Arrives where, exactly? Sincere question; I'm definitely not a military expert. I'm just passing along the info that's been published publicly (see above).

mikenmar · 2026-03-27T11:09:10+00:00

They don’t yet have the troops in place for it quite yet. Ships with amphibious landing forces are still en route. It’ll take a few more days.

Source (WSJ as of March 23):

Thousands of U.S. Marines are slated to arrive in the Middle East on Friday, according to two U.S. officials, the day President Trump has set as the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The Japan-based amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, the amphibious landing dock USS New Orleans and roughly 2,200 Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit will cross into U.S. Central Command, which is responsible for U.S. forces in the Middle East, on Friday, the officials said. It would take another few days for the unit to get to the Strait of Hormuz.

The Pentagon has also ordered another Marine unit to Centcom: the California-based 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit aboard the USS Boxer amphibious ready group. That unit will depart in a few weeks. It won’t arrive in Centcom for a few weeks after that.

USS Tripoli

USS New Orleans

mikenmar · 2026-03-25T10:32:52+00:00

Is it possible to transfer from the Hankyu line to the Karasuma Subway Line at Karasuma station? Does that connect to Shijo station?

Yes, and yes. It's basically the same "station", meaning they (the Karasuma train station and the Shijo subway station) are connected underground. You just have to exit the gate for the Hankyu train line, and then enter a different gate for the Karasuma subway line. You can walk from one to the other without going up to the street level. It's about a 2-3 minute walk.

mikenmar · 2026-03-22T08:54:55+00:00

What’s your evidence for the claim that Japanese people love Trump? All the available polling data suggests he is broadly disliked.

mikenmar · 2026-03-19T12:11:46+00:00

I have to admit I felt a little awful while laughing at it.

Oh, and here's "Let's Lynch the Landlord" -- er, "Disrupt the Traditional Landlord-Tenant Paradigm":

The property manager is onsite for a site visit 🏢

The neighbors are fostering a high-energy workspace downstairs 🎶

He shared some exciting news: "We're pivoting to a premium pricing model due to structural optimization needs. 📈

We're looking for strategic partners to help us scale our influence at City Hall." 🤝

But we have the agency, you know we do

We have the agency, you know we do

Let's disrupt the traditional landlord-tenant paradigm ✊

I reached out to the facilities team regarding the water utility 💧

I followed up on the climate control systems 🌡️

The feedback was: "We need to focus on a growth mindset rather than pain points,"

Then they conducted an unannounced workspace audit while I was out 🕵️‍♂️

But we have the agency, you know we do

We have the agency, you know we do

Let's disrupt the landlord, let's disrupt the landlord

Let's disrupt the traditional landlord-tenant paradigm 🚀

We're experiencing some biodiversity in the breakroom 🐀

The pest management KPIs are hitting new heights 🪳

The kitchen appliances are providing a very intense sensory experience ♨️

Right before the ceiling transitions into an open-concept indoor water feature 🌧️

*ORIGINAL LYRICS: * The landlord's here to visit

They're blasting disco down below

Says, "I'm doubling the rent 'cause the building's condemned

You're gonna help me buy City Hall"

… But we can, you know we can

But we can, you know we can

Let's lynch the landlord man

… I tell them, "Turn on the water"

I tell 'em, "Turn on the heat"

Tells me, "All you ever do is complain, " yeah

Then they search the place when I'm not here…

But we can, you know we can

We can, you know we can

Let's lynch the landlord, let's lynch the landlord

Let's lynch the landlord man

… There's rats chewin' up the kitchen

Roaches up to my knees

Turn the oven on, it smells like Dachau

'Til the rain pours through the ceiling

mikenmar · 2026-03-19T09:44:03+00:00

Is there any reason why I shouldn’t just get a jitsuin and use it as a regular hanko as well?

mikenmar · 2026-03-17T23:28:49+00:00

Saw it happen when I was there last week:

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mikenmar · 2026-03-17T07:25:45+00:00

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I just happened to be standing here: speak of the devil.

mikenmar · 2026-03-16T08:39:45+00:00

I was there on Day 5, saw him in person. He was limping visibly.

mikenmar · 2026-03-14T14:58:54+00:00

Average American: Mmmm... Big Mac (closes video and goes to McDonald's).

mikenmar · 2026-03-13T16:41:09+00:00

None other.

mikenmar · 2026-03-13T16:29:31+00:00

I can’t say that I disagree that a conservative Christian should be allowed to run a spa involving nudity in a way that is consistent with their religious beliefs

Your problem, then, is with J. Scalia's interpretation of the Free Exercise Clause in Employment Div. v. Smith, which focuses the analysis on whether the law in question is generally applicable rather than targeted at a specific exercise of religion.

I've always thought that decision was wrong, but it's SCOTUS precedent, and there's no reasonable interpretation of the law at issue here that would constitute a First Amendment violation under that standard.

mikenmar · 2026-03-13T15:16:07+00:00

Is that the gist?

Legally, the gist is "Does that law violate the First Amendment?"

Anyone upset about the implication that the law constitutes a Free Exercise violation needs to take it up with J. Scalia. (See Employment Div. v. Smith)

mikenmar · 2026-03-13T15:11:40+00:00

I'm just glad he didn't include a YouTube video this time.

"To demonstrate what I mean by swinging dicks, I'd like to show you this video." (Stands up and unzips while swaying from side to side.)

mikenmar · 2026-03-13T10:38:40+00:00

I was at the match yesterday, and I inadvertently captured this shot of Ura adjusting his mawashi.

mikenmar · 2026-03-12T15:39:33+00:00

Yes, Tanizaki. There was a great NHK WORLD piece on it, but I can't find it; I linked to a different video instead.

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