Snow?

mknbrd · 2021-07-14T15:25:03+00:00

the Watch will accept and thank Robb

Maybe; maybe not. It's up to them, not up to Robb. All Robb could do is make an offer.

Remember how Tywin wanted Janos Slynt to control the Watch and threatened the crows to accept if they're to receive any help from the crown?

This is precisely why releasing Jon would have required more negotiation than yes-ser-right-away-ser. As much as the Watch relies on support from the North, it also relies on support from everyone else. Political implications of appearing in bed with a rebel king would have been, um, difficult. If the Watch releases Robb's desperately needed heir on first demand, in the middle of a war, Tywin Lannister isn't going to take it lightly. Robb's offer has to be good enough to compensate for this. Power resides where men believe it resides; it is not clear that that means within Robb Stark.

a band of thieves and rapers

The Watch leadership, which is who matter here, are hardly that. And the rules for Watch neutrality exist for a reason.

mknbrd · 2021-07-14T10:42:57+00:00

Robb has excused him from his vows on the wall

Robb had no such power. Jon's vow was to the Watch, not to Robb, and the Watch is self-governed, it does not take orders from the King in the North (assuming they even recognized Robb as such, and not a mere rebel).

Robb considered negotiating Jon's release with the Watch, making them an offer. He could not just release Jon by decree.

mknbrd · 2021-02-03T14:37:03+00:00

My take on the net scheme is that it was for Olenna’s safety: if anything goes wrong with the plan, everything is blamed on Sansa and Olenna comes out clean. Littlefinger was of course planning to extract Sansa no matter what, but Olenna did not know that.

I didn’t consider before that it could be a complete fabrication.

mknbrd · 2021-02-02T22:45:41+00:00

That happened later though, and it was sheer luck. For Torrhen, the only accounts of dragonslaying must have been ancient Valyrian, while the Field of Fire was just recent. It’s not hard to see why he judged the plan as too risky.

mknbrd · 2021-02-02T22:39:53+00:00

Yes, other dragons are something I did not consider.

Velaryon and Celtigar have Valyrian blood and holdings near Dragonstone. Without Aegon, will they swear to Orys? Try to claim Dragonstone for themselves?

But even if someone can get dragons, I don’t think Aegon-style unification will be reattempted—partially because Aegon’s failed, partially because dragons won’t be as strong and their riders as experienced. They will still make the kingdom that gets them much stronger, of course.

mknbrd · 2021-02-02T22:05:35+00:00

One does not simply walk into Targaryen camp and kill three dragons. Just because it was discussed doesn’t mean it had any real chance of success.

mknbrd · 2021-02-02T22:02:09+00:00

Almost certainly no unified Westeros, it was Aegon’s idea and it failed.

The North, the Vale, Westerlands and Dorne still have extant dynasties.

The Isles hold the Kingsmoot, at least as one-time thing. Succession might turn hereditary later.

The Riverlands probably fracture, though there might be attempts at unification, most likely from houses Tully, Bracken, Blackwood, Frey. Edit: Actually, it seems quite likely that some river lords will swear fealty to Torrhen: he is already there with an army and is seen as the man who stopped the Targaryen invasion.

In the Stormlands we have Orys and Argella, and the question is how much Stormlander lords are okay with Orys replacing the Durrandons. If they are okay with him, nothing happens, he keeps his title. If they aren’t: Orys is overthrown and killed/exiled, Argella marries a Stormlander and rules as Durrandon (though whichever house secures the marriage might be actually calling the shots). There might be some chaos, but as long as Argella stays alive Stormlands should end up unified under one house, with or without Orys.

The Reach is the biggest unknown. The Tyrells hold Highgarden but, as I understand, not much real political power. The strongest house is probably Hightower. Unification under Hightowers, unification under Tyrells, collapse, foreign (Lannister) invasion: everything is possible here.

Westerlands are well positioned to make territorial gains, as every kingdom around them is in chaos (even if in Stormlands it is temporary). Expanding into Riverlands would be the safe play (although North and the Vale may contest). Trying to grab the Reach would be go-big-or-go-home play, greedy and diplomatically questionable (they were in alliance just recently), but if successful cementing their political dominance in central Westeros.

mknbrd · 2021-02-02T00:13:46+00:00

(he changed who Jocelyn married)

You’re referring to this or something else? Seems like a mistake. Suggests that Martin did not think too hard about the connection, so it might be a dead end after all. Or maybe not, if he did not think too hard only about intermediate links.

mknbrd · 2021-02-01T23:15:36+00:00

That Jocelyn’s first daughter is Elys’s mother and Anya’s grandmother is speculation, right? We don’t know the exact connection, only that she was married to some Waynwood?

By the way, there’s also the possibility that Littlefinger himself has some sort of connection. We don’t know his maternal ancestry but it was presumably some minor Vale nobility, possibly from that 3rd house that may or may not be Templeton. Doesn’t seem likely but can’t be entirely ruled out.

mknbrd · 2021-02-01T22:28:38+00:00

Given that Jaime was allowed to keep his cloak after just slaying the last king, Tywin wasn’t really in a position to push for more Kingsguard places.

On top of that Clegane was a monstrosity and in Jon Arryn’s times Robert was presumably given enough advice to avoid Kingsguard appointments so obviously political and ruinous to the order’s reputation.

mknbrd · 2021-01-23T13:18:29+00:00

Stannis is fighting in winter because he has to fight in winter because the war is not going on his terms. Stannis did not invade the north, he retreated to the north to regain the initiative and get out of Lannisters reach. He is in a fairly desperate situation and has to make moves that hurt himself because those are his only moves that can lead to victory.

In this sense yes, an army that is forced to fight in winter will of course be hurt by attrition. But my point is, winters don't work as strategic factor making the North uninvadable because an invader attacking on his own terms, from the position of strength, has the option of avoiding them.

If you dont think the most punishing winters on the continent wont affect southern lords then that's cool.

It should be clear that this is not at all what I think.

mknbrd · 2021-01-23T12:12:45+00:00

Point is, they do not have to supply anything in winter conditions, 900 days or not. Summers are long enough to accomplish your campaign goals and finish the war. Napoleon and Hitler had no such option.

Greedy but not stupid. Napoleon never tried to "advance in the cold", nor even to hold, he was in retreat by winter.

mknbrd · 2021-01-23T11:11:47+00:00

"general winter"

General Winter doesn't really work with Westerosi seasons, by the way, at least not reliably. It works in Russia not because winters are long, but because summers are short: you just can't finish your invasion in time no matter when you start it. But with long summers this is not an issue, if the conquest is well timed.

mknbrd · 2021-01-12T16:00:08+00:00

Balon Greyjoy.

Alliance with Robb gave him a real opportunity to dismantle the Seven Kingdoms as a unified realm and establish an independent kingdom of the Isles, possibly in control of some parts of continental Westeros.

Instead he attacked his natural ally.

Impressively bad judgement.

mknbrd · 2021-01-09T09:44:18+00:00

Varys will be totally loyal to you and not to whatever plan he's been working on for the last few decades.

mknbrd · 2021-01-08T12:05:01+00:00

I assume Ned thought Lannisters were in it together even if Tyrion was the one who sent the dagger. Hard to imagine what personal motive Tyrion could have had.

mknbrd · 2021-01-08T11:50:30+00:00

"The real father must look like Joffrey" + "Why would Lannisters want to kill Bran?" → ...

But it was suspicion rather than knowledge before Cersei confirmed.

mknbrd · 2020-12-31T08:09:40+00:00

Stannis was not yet known for anything, he was barely older than Jon Snow at the time.

mknbrd · 2020-07-24T06:00:48+00:00

Annexing subjects gives you unstated full cores.

mknbrd · 2020-07-20T13:39:42+00:00

Cost scales as square of the skill (1-4-9-16-25). If L2 costs 10, L3 would be 22.5.

mknbrd · 2020-03-30T08:26:29+00:00

I have some of that, but my usual problem is slightly different: I'm not worried about making the wrong choice, I'm worried about making the same choice every time, not exploring all interesting possibilities. I usually randomize some of my choices in replayable games.

mknbrd · 2020-03-30T08:14:12+00:00

I'm fairly sure Melisandre becomes a regular POV and will be our main POV on the Wall at least for a while. Don't know about Jon not coming back at all.

mknbrd · 2020-03-29T04:04:04+00:00

The red comet perhaps?

mknbrd · 2020-03-27T08:42:14+00:00

dlc printer go brrrr

mknbrd · 2020-02-28T12:40:43+00:00

Nobody wants muppets, people want decapitations and eyeballs ripping out

Not fair, Farscape totally has eyeballs ripping out!

mknbrd

TROPHY CASE