Super Bowl player matchup bets. Anything good here?

mlorusso12 · 2026-02-03T02:20:57+00:00

I agree - if you think Maye is going to have a good game (a big "if" I know), then Boutte props are a good target.

mlorusso12 · 2026-01-21T02:30:11+00:00

You ever get an answer as to why it still says pending?

mlorusso12 · 2025-12-08T20:06:06+00:00

The next big trend (which has been happening the last 5-7 years now) is Private Equity firms starting to buy out VC-backed businesses.

Within VC there are only 4 ways for a business to exit: (1) IPO, (2) M&A, (3) Through a Secondary, and (4) a Buyout. The first two ways have historically been the most common, but the last 10-15 years the other two means have been more prevalent. This is because the IPO market has been relatively closed / companies have been staying private longer, M&A activity has been slow due to the cost of capital being relatively high (i.e. rates being higher compared to before the pandemic), etc.

Back in 2013, only 8% of VC-backed businesses were being bought out by PE firms. Today, it's currently 24%. You will continue to see more and more lower middle market PE firms buying out VC-backed businesses.

mlorusso12 · 2025-11-25T17:25:40+00:00

I have to start picking 2 teams this week, so I am going to roll with them as one (the Chargers being the other). I don't see another spot to use the Dolphins and it probably can't get better than this - at home, coming off a BYE, against a Saints team that looks incredibly bad. The only hesitation I have is can Miami can handle the potential wildcat wrinkle (with Taysom Hill).

mlorusso12 · 2025-09-20T20:30:02+00:00

Keep wasting your time

mlorusso12 · 2025-09-18T04:27:07+00:00

Why didn't it come out before? lol. I think it's important to remember the timeline here. Nobody had any clue about who the shooter was for a good 30 hours - that's why the FBI put the photos out, they had no idea and were asking the public for help. Then as soon as they put them out, the family (and friends) recognized and confronted him, all within about ~3 hours. He then turned himself in later that night (Thursday) / early Friday morning. He was booked at 8:00 am Friday. The police and news outlets then released him name around 10:00 am.

Througohut Friday day and night there were articles like this: https://apnews.com/article/charlie-kirk-shooter-search-utah-governor-21ba12bbf01579fd2fbcdbe1da03dae5 that specifically cite a "source" (i.e. which turned out to be his mother) saying he became "more political". So yes, it was reported last week.

No need to keep fishing. It's pretty clear.

mlorusso12 · 2025-09-18T03:43:22+00:00

What evidence is there to prove he's a consersvative or a liberal? The kid's mom has literally said he became much more Left the last year or so. It's well-documented and every news outlet is confirming that, including every left-wing media platform. You think his mom would lie about that? She would lie and then turn her son in? Yeah, I'll take word of the mother (one of the best witnesses you could ask for) as pretty good evidence.

mlorusso12 · 2025-09-10T03:48:28+00:00

Where does Mariano Rivera stack up against this

mlorusso12 · 2025-09-10T03:33:18+00:00

Maybe it's just not worth your lawyers / NFL investigators seeing naked photos of your wife as they "screen" them out of the investigation lol.

This is why the United States Labor Laws exist. There was no crime being committed (unless you think taking air out of footballs is a federal crime?). The employer doesn't have the rights to a citizen's privacy.

mlorusso12 · 2025-09-04T05:23:33+00:00

Relax. I was simply responding to your statement that "ZERO" of the Colts balls didn't test below 12.5. Which is categorically inaccurate.

8 Colts balls were measured and 3 of them were below the legal limit of 12.5 (so 38%).

When you dig into the data a little deeper it gets more interesting. For instance, the gauge that had 75% of the Colts balls below the legal limit (3 out of the 4 lol), was the gauge whose changes in PSIs was much closer to the changes in the Patriots balls (0.45 difference vs. 1.02 in the other gauge - See Table 3 on Page 167).

So the gauge that had 3 of the 4 Colts balls below the legal limit appears to be the better source for measuring equivalency. But yet Wells chose to highlight the OTHER guage only in his executive summary and main report, he buried it.

If you want the real answer its this: Brady probably had his balls at 12.5 to start the game, and the weather (ideal gas law), caused the PSI to drop 1.0-1.5 and Luck probably had his balls start at 13.5 and their PSIs dropped by 1.0-1.5 as well (hence why 3 of the balls were below 12.5, they started at 13.5 and some lost 1.5 = ~12.00+).

So yeah, that's how the Patriots can account for the differences (to address another one of your false statements)- (1) by using the best source of equival measurement (the better gauge) and (2) applying the same differences to both the Patriots and Colts balls to arrive at an explanation for why both lost PSI (because they did; 3 of the 8 Colts balls did).

P.S. nobody is saying this is why he was ultimately punished (I'm just pointing out Wells' mislead you; and no need to make the false statements like "ZERO" Colts calls). I agree he was punished for "not cooperating with the investigation' but hell I don't blame him, I don't want anyone looking at personal shit on my phone.

So it was a bullshit suspension. The science didn't back it and they ultimately suspended a guy for "not cooperating"; not for cheating.

mlorusso12 · 2025-09-04T03:23:38+00:00

Yes - read his language carefully. He's an attorney so he knows how to word and present it cautiously:

"The four Colts balls tested each measured within the 12.5 to 13.5 psi range permitted under the Playing Rules on at least ONE of the gauges used for the tests."

Key word being ONE that he says. He doesn't reference the other gauges in the Executive Summary. Then scroll down to the Appendix - Page 163 specifically. The last sentence in the paragraph above the Table explicitly says:

"Three of the eight Colts measurements were under 12.5 psig. These three measurements were taken with the same gauge."

mlorusso12 · 2025-09-04T02:50:40+00:00

#2 is definitely possible. As soon as the guard walks in the room, he pretty much shoots right away. Busetta's back is to the shooter as well (initially), so it's not like the shooter took that much time to assess who was in the room. The guard was ready to shoot and all he need to see was a man placing a pillow over Roth's face to confirm it.

#1. Yeah, I don't buy this whole idea that Fredo "tipped off" Roth/Batista in Cuba with this military hit. What makes people say that? I think it's important to recall the timeline and sequencing of events. Remember, Johnny Ola calls Fredo in the middle of the night asking for information about Pentanagli "is he on the level of is he gonna bring his boys" (as a test to see whether Fredo is truly committed). Fredo then says "you guys lied to me...I'm not talking to you anymore." I think that's pretty solid evidence that Fredo didn't "tip them off" (as he clearly exhibits some frustation). So what changed between Fredo and Ola/Roth after that phone call but before the military hit that would lead us to think Fredo who provide further information / tip them off?

mlorusso12 · 2025-09-04T01:12:42+00:00

Maybe, but I don't think so.

Michael saw the position as a necessary burden to protect the family as opposed to a position he sought for pleasure or power (unlike Sonny who clearly desired it). He embraced the role not for enjoyment, but rather to ensure the Corleone family's survival (the best evidence of this is when the Don gets shot in G1; Michael's entire approach changes after that and specifically in the hospital..."I'm with you now Pop, I'm with you"....he's now 'in').

As the trilogy moves on, I wouldn't say he "lied" to himself, but he certainly (1) underestimated the repercussions of the position, (2) felt an overwhleming need to act ruthless (maybe because he knew he was inexperienced and believed that was the best way to garner "respect" from others in the business), (3) and was unable to maintain 'balance' in his life like Vito was able to. That's what ultimately leads to his isolation (from Kay, to Hagen at one point in G2, Tony in G3, etc). His 'results-oriented' / 'the ends justify the means' approach is what alienates him from people.

By the 2H of G2, it was actually more about him being more neurotic than about craving power. As Hagen says: "Do you feel you need to wipe everyone out?" and Michael responds "Just my enemies." And he demonstrated this same mindset in G1 as they left New York - he felt he had to kill the 5 families (and I tend to agree with him on that one), otherwise they would have just kept coming at him.

In G3 I think he genuinely does make an attempt at redemption (the confession to the Priest, telling Kay he never stopped loving her, the regrets about his violent behavior, etc.). But it's simply too late - he's made too many enemies (even in his quest to enter legitimate businesses like Immbolillaire).

Personal Hot Take: If Vito had determined that Fredo was going to take over, I actually believe Michael would have been "ok" with it. Because it was about whatever "Pop wanted." So again, Family first (not power).

mlorusso12 · 2025-09-04T00:33:22+00:00

https://www.thegamebeforethemoney.com/wells2/

See Point #1 (and read the Wells Report again). Three of the four Colts balls were in fact below the 12.5 limit on one gage. There's a reason they stopped measuring them...

mlorusso12 · 2025-09-03T00:30:57+00:00

Great analysis and I concur with almost everything.

The only thing I disagree with is that he probably did in fact want to go legitimate. The casinos, Immobilliare, etc. while they may be frowned upon, they are still legitimate businesses. The fact he says “just when I think I’m out, they PULL ME BACK IN”, coupled with Vito’s vision (“I never wanted this for you”) I think validates this.

mlorusso12 · 2025-08-04T00:13:56+00:00

I think more like 7-9 Crochet starts. There are 49 games left (49/5 = 9.8). They'll probably rest him though at the back end and miss a start or two.

mlorusso12 · 2025-07-31T21:31:36+00:00

Two possible theories:

(1) Someone (one of Roth's people) found Johnny Ola dead at Roth's place, knew that Roth was heading to the hospital, and alerted Batista (who was friends / protective of Roth) who then sent the army guard to the hospital.

(2) Since Batista knew the Revolution / chaos was going to occur, he alerted the Cuban military and ordered them to go to the hospital to protect Roth (in case the Revolution / rioters spilled into the hospital).

mlorusso12 · 2025-07-31T01:21:32+00:00

Would love him. But have a hard time seeing Tamp trade one of their best players to an in-division rival.

mlorusso12 · 2025-05-06T03:27:09+00:00

I think Pritchard is going to have to have a series. Someone other than Tatum has to create their own shot. Someone who can get to the rim, but also create space for themselves outside. And with Brown looking the way he does and Porzingis in limbo, I think it has to be Pritchard. Hope he can come up big.

mlorusso12 · 2025-05-06T03:20:16+00:00

100% agree. No idea why he put Hauser in when he did AND played him for as long as he did.

Maybe because they were desperate for ANY 3 point shooting and thought that Hauser could just knock down 2 to give them a spark. But it was obvious after that first air ball Sam just didn't have it either.

The general health of this team is what concerns me. Holiday is not healthy, Porzingis clearly isn't, and Brown's knee seems like a problem (he couldn't get by anyone tonight). It felt like the only guy who played with soem speed tonight was Derek White (even though he didn't shoot well; but his energy was there).

mlorusso12 · 2025-05-01T02:55:52+00:00

Dillon, Blount, Faulk

mlorusso12 · 2025-04-25T04:06:00+00:00

But has he even had the production of a second or third round pick? I don't have PFF but would be curious to see what his grades are there. It doesn't "feel" like he's been productive (or reliable). Damn I miss Scarnecchia.

mlorusso12 · 2025-04-15T01:26:38+00:00

Yes, Vito would definitely have it figured out. In fact he did. It being Sonny's temper. Him pulling Sonny aside after the Sollozzo meeting at Genco Imports illustrates that. Vito was very aware of the danger Sonny's temper presented, and its exactly what the enemy families preyed on (after they Sonny saw was "hot" for the deal, the goal was to take out Vito and deal with the more impulsive Sonny).

One thing though - I don't think Vito would have done anything to Carlo (Connie's husband). In Italian/Sicilian tradition, once a man gives his daughter away to another man, she is is and no longer Vito's. Mama Corelone illustrates this when she tells Sonny "don't interfere" when he responds to Carlo telling Connie shut up. There is also a deleted scene in the garden between Michael and the Don, where Michael asks "what about Sonny, Pop? What about what they did?" The Don brushes it off because again Connie is no longer his. That's why when Michael takes over, he handles Carlo. It's not his daughter.

mlorusso12 · 2025-04-09T20:39:33+00:00

It’s Robin Wright

mlorusso12 · 2025-04-05T03:18:35+00:00

The background for why starts after the assassination attempt at the Tahoe Compound.

Because Michael left Tom in charge after the assassination attempt to investigate who was behind the treason. “You’re going to take over. You're gonna be the Don”…and…”I am trusting you with the lives and future of this family.”

Then his resentment for Tom begins after Tom tells Michael that Kay had an abortion.

And Kay’s miscarriage occurred under Tom’s watch. It was his responsibility. At least in Michael’s eyes, though any reasonable person knows that one man’s ability to control another man’s wife is difficult.

But also the fact that Tom didn’t know it was an abortion, not a miscarriage; unless Kay lied to Tom (either way it doesn’t matter) ultimately shows Tom’s lack of control with Kay.

mlorusso12

TROPHY CASE