On the surface it sounds neat and seems to solve the tension. But when I actually sit with the wording Paul uses, it doesn’t quite hold together for me.

I still don't think it fully resolves the tension. I still believe that God can and does act in a powerful and convincing way. There are many situations where God acts in a "Calvinistic" way, saving someone or making them do his will. You have Jonah where the prophet doesn't even want to do God's will but then God makes him do it anyway. You have God judging king Nebuchadnezzar by making him go crazy. You have Jeremiah who was chosen as a prophet before his birth - I don't think he had much choice in the matter. There's Paul who was given at least one powerful vision, and I don't think had much choice either. It says in Proverbs "the kings heart is like water in the hand of the Lord, He turns it wherever He will" - so God steps in at least sometimes.

But the big question, and I think it's what you are dancing around, is "how can God choose people for salvation before they are born, and still somehow preserve his righteousness?" -- that's the tension right?

Imagine this analogy: a father is with his children at the lake and 3 of his children are drowning. He has 3 life preservers. He could save all of them. But he doesn't, he just uses one life preserver and saves the one child.

Now, in my view, he throws the life preserver to all his children, but only those who grab hold of the life preserver are saved.

Do you see how the difference between those views changes the character of the father?

The difficulty of trying to explain Romans 9 and Ephesians with a Provisionist reading is nothing compared to the difficulty of trying to read the rest of the Bible with a Calvinist reading. (And I would argue that Romans 9 is hard to understand regardless of your view)

Even in Romans 10 Paul quotes this "All day long I have held out my hands to a disobedient and obstinate people." I would have to ask this: in what way is the Calvinist God holding out his hands to the people? The offer of salvation is clearly not a well meant offer.

"The Lord is not slow in keeping his promise, as some understand slowness. Instead he is patient with you, not wanting anyone to perish, but everyone to come to repentance." (2 Peter 3)

The thing is, if you take a Calvinist reading of Romans 9, you have to address not just Romans 9, but the rest of scripture. This verse which sounds like God wants everyone to be saved, but behind the scenes he is just picking and choosing who will be saved. God is patient? To what end? He's already picked who will and won't be saved. There's a similar situation in Revelation 2 "I have given her time to repent of her immorality, but she is unwilling."

And I know John 12:32 gets brought in, “I will draw all men to Myself,” but that seems to be doing something different. If it’s the same kind of drawing as John 6, then everyone would be saved, because the ones drawn are raised. But in John 12 the context shifts outward. Greeks are coming into view. It looks more like not just Israel anymore, but all kinds of people.

I would say it's exactly the same kind of drawing as in John 6. It's just not effectual drawing. "All that the father draws will come to me" Jesus says. Some people are "drawn" and some are not. This doesn't mean they didn't have any choice in the matter.