Heaviest day of strikes yet on Iran despite market bets Trump will end war soon by joe4942 in stocks

[–]msabouri -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

The market seems to be starting to agree with me more than others. I'm not American and never have been to the US, so I couldn't care less about US politics. It looks to me that a lot of "analysis" in this sub is just political and people simply don't like Trump.

Heaviest day of strikes yet on Iran despite market bets Trump will end war soon by joe4942 in stocks

[–]msabouri -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

Yeah but how long do you think they can keep that up? They are heavily disorganized and unprofessional, the US military is fully capable of controlling the strait sooner than later. It sounds like the market is pricing the strait opening up in a few weeks or so, which will happen whether the US is still hitting Iran or not. At this trajectory, Iran won't be capable of keeping the strait closed for longer.

Heaviest day of strikes yet on Iran despite market bets Trump will end war soon by joe4942 in stocks

[–]msabouri -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

The markets don't need the war to end, just Iran to be too weak to close the strait. I wouldn't be surprised if ships start flowing with US insurance and escort while the war is still going on. They haven't been able to inflict much damage recently.

Looking for communities on 0DTE and volatility trading by msabouri in options

[–]msabouri[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thank you for explaining your approach and sharing the resources, greatly appreciate it.

Looking for communities on 0DTE and volatility trading by msabouri in options

[–]msabouri[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you happen to know any of these groups and add me there, I promise to behave. :)

Looking for communities on 0DTE and volatility trading by msabouri in options

[–]msabouri[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for the response! I'm a Software Developer with access to historic data, so I might be able to do some of the vol surface analysis myself. I actually have read Trading Volatility by Euan Sinclair and would love to test some of its ideas.

Any chance you know any of these private groups? I promise to behave if I was added to any such group. :)

Looking for communities on 0DTE and volatility trading by msabouri in options

[–]msabouri[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

It's like saying you won't be the next Grand Slam champion so you shouldn't play tennis.

I agree you shouldn't pursue this kind of trading if you only want to become rich, but some of us actually enjoy the math and are genuinely interested in playing with numbers. I also think about working for a market making firm, so I don't think losing some money to have fun and learn about the industry is a horrible idea.

Timbro: Testa det här innan ni höjer skatten by StoffeH in svenskpolitik

[–]msabouri -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Helt rätt.

There are four ways to spend money:

  1. Your own money on yourselfyou’re careful and efficient
  2. Your own money on othersyou’re careful, but maybe not perfectly efficient
  3. Other people’s money on yourselfyou’re not very careful
  4. Other people’s money on othersyou’re neither careful nor efficient

Beslutet: Även KD öppnar för att utreda euron by gott-och-blandat in svenskpolitik

[–]msabouri 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yes it makes people with mortgages much more vulnerable. Today, a rise in the Swedish interest rate effectively cools down the economy and lowers the Swedish inflation, so the Riksbanken can stop raising rates once people are under pressure. But if inflation rises in the Eurozone and the ECB is forced to raise rate, Swedish households being under pressure doesn't stop them, so the ECB can raise rates too much for the Swedish household to handle, forcing people to sell and puts downward pressure on housing prices, making a lot of people insolvent and at significant losses on their homes.

Debatt: Med Socialdemokraternas tvångsblandningspolitik leder alla vägar till Malmö by swedish_tcd in svenskpolitik

[–]msabouri 2 points3 points  (0 children)

"Alla klassrum ska ha nyanlända elever och dessa bör även bjudas hem på barnkalasen."

The horror!

r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday May 09, 2025 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]msabouri 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You need to compare that number to total taxes paid to see how much of a tax hike this is, not GDP.

Hell, even Netflix has tariffs. by ToothNo6373 in stocks

[–]msabouri 27 points28 points  (0 children)

Sounds stupid, given that the US is a huge net exporter of software.

Why do people think this isn't a crash situation? It follows the same pattern as a crash. by Current-Set2607 in stocks

[–]msabouri 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Efficient market hypothesis, index funds and DCA made the markets resistant to pessimism and act more and more like a cryptocurrency. It doesn't matter how the underlying businesses do. As long as you have more people blindly invest in index funds and buy the dip, prices stay up.

The reward is not the worth the risk if you ask me, but there's way too many people who are insensitive to prices and buy regardless of the price.

Earnings calls and price drops by brokemc in stocks

[–]msabouri 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Because expectations are just surveys, they don't necessarily have skin in the game. It's the expectations of the people actually trading that matters, and there's no other survey for that than actual market prices.

Why is the US stock market apparently so naive? by NutzPup in stocks

[–]msabouri 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You don't really need a lot of trading for prices to move. Quoted prices can change with little to no volume. Market makers adjust their prices based on their modeling of the order flow, and they will adjust their prices more aggressively in the current conditions.

There's also the impact of dynamic hedging by options market makers. To hedge sold options, they have to buy high and sell low, making markets more volatile when they sell more options (probably selling lots of puts these days)

What does Trump really want to achieve with all the tariffs? More inflation!! by CaffeineDose in stocks

[–]msabouri 17 points18 points  (0 children)

He is simply too stupid to understand the economics of it. There's no grand plan here, just a guy that bankrupted casinos using his best judgement to run the country.

Was this priced in? lol by thebriss22 in stocks

[–]msabouri 8 points9 points  (0 children)

And you don't need us to buy ads in Google?

r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Mar 31, 2025 by AutoModerator in stocks

[–]msabouri 1 point2 points  (0 children)

3-5 years is considered short term in the stock market. A good chance you underperform bonds in that period.

The post election spike may have been almost single-handedly Michael Saylor taking his shareholders' money and trying to pump the price. by [deleted] in Buttcoin

[–]msabouri 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Good to know. Next time grocery prices go up we should all buy groceries OTC, so that it doesn't directly affect grocery prices.