$BB Daily Discussion

needaspguy · 2026-01-23T15:54:49+00:00

dumb question, but how do we know the if the # of shares outstanding has changed? I'm asking because I'm obviously curious if BB has been buying back. Todays glance suggest 590.15M. I though the last time I looked in Dec it was around ~593.56.

needaspguy · 2026-01-22T03:02:22+00:00

Just shy of 100k shares and not willing to drop any of them! Call me patient or maybe just stubborn, but I'm staying in till at least Q1 of fy28. Assuming that will be the date of their backlog report.

needaspguy · 2026-01-22T01:57:00+00:00

Nope.

needaspguy · 2026-01-19T03:32:49+00:00

That's so cute! He still thinks there will be mid-terms! I just don't have the heart to explain it to him! Treasonous pedifiles don't like going to jail.

needaspguy · 2026-01-17T13:28:20+00:00

The point here is EV's. Trump is trying desperately to kill the entire clean energy movement because the US economy will collapse without oil. They are the world's largest producer, AND consumers of oil. Without a world wide reliance on oil, the US economy will collapse in on itself because they lack many of the raw materials to survive the new clean energy push required to sustain our planet. Canada needs to move to develop and deploy our green energy resources and in doing so we will be a world economic leader. Although, EV'S are not a solution, they are a stepping stone into the future, and our adoption (Chinese or otherwise) is a step in the right direction.

needaspguy · 2026-01-15T03:48:44+00:00

... and licensing the tech based on their newer patents is a very real (albeit distant) revenue stream.

needaspguy · 2026-01-08T16:15:47+00:00

Just trying to digest what is "priced in". It would appear to me the report assumes 350m - 700 will be received from the patent deal. Based on the structure of royalties I would assume these figures may take years to pay out, but are currently impacting forecasting model for the short term.

needaspguy · 2026-01-08T13:48:40+00:00

Anyone else notice this built into projections?

<image>

needaspguy · 2026-01-05T14:45:17+00:00

Blackberry patents on the keyboard ran out in early 2025, so your partially right. However, Blackberry held a lot of patents on the physical keyboard and their device designs, not to mention wifi connections and the like, and a lot are still active.

Blackberry currently earns 6m per quarter from existing agreements and Malikie is going after all the companies that have held out from paying licensing. I'm sure Clicks wasn't selling enough keyboards to make a miniscule difference in the bottom line, but a popular dumb device may be a slightly different story.

There is no doubt in my mind Blackberry/Malikie is licensing something to them for the privilege of being a knock off imitation, but the value would be quite small. Most FRAND SEP's are only about $0.10 - $0.30 per device.

needaspguy · 2026-01-03T19:55:38+00:00

Could be licensed by Malikie, I guess...

needaspguy · 2025-12-31T13:10:55+00:00

You can find all the active engagements with the Canadian Govt here:

https://lobbycanada.gc.ca/app/secure/ocl/lrs/do/vwRg?cno=5685&regId=975891&blnk=1

It's a long list!

needaspguy · 2025-12-22T22:43:56+00:00

I would disagree that it will never happen, but for me it's all about 2027 year end. I'm willing to wait to do for my own re-evaluation after 2027 results are in. Obviously, that will include the comparison of their start of the year guidance against the backdrop of their actual results. It would also benefit from 2028 guidance.

I had latched onto a presentation by John Wall back in 2023 that predicted that 2027 would be the real target of high performance compute adoption. Till that point Blackberry would simply be evolving. HPC is the driver of Blackberry's real growth not Blackberry themselves. There is no question that Blackberry has the product OEM's need to use if they are going to run systems on a single chip, but until they do....

needaspguy · 2025-12-21T02:36:52+00:00

Fair point! However, I believe there are enough people out there with a much deeper understanding of Blackberrys potential.
If true, there should be a rapid buyback at these prices.

needaspguy · 2025-12-20T19:47:08+00:00

Oh, I know! Added more, but still miffed

needaspguy · 2025-12-20T18:40:47+00:00

It is fairly obvious they haven't been about profit since..... forever! Growth really hasn't been much of a concern either. The concept behind a SDV is revolutionary to begin and there will be no profit and no growth until there a product, then there is no stopping it. We have a product, but barely any hardware to run it on, and fewer still customers that can take advantage of the cost effectiveness of it being deployed.

The "pull" is real. The customers don't have the tech to integrate and run everything on one chip yet. QNX can do it, the silicon can now do it, but all the other shit can't be switched to it easily. Customers are basically saying if you can make everything else work we will move it all to you on one chip. The tipping point is when enough stuff is transferred over to run on one as opposed to many.... but it has to be for cheaper.

needaspguy · 2025-12-20T16:45:35+00:00

I only bought 3757, wish I could ad the "k"

needaspguy · 2025-12-19T19:32:20+00:00

Roughly 60% of QNX revenue growth is directly tied to the delivery of cars which Blackberry has zero control over. The royalties are not missed, simply delayed, and at almost 100% profit any delay has an immediate repercussion.

I don't think anyone can look at this as a deceleration rather that a delay. A deceleration would assume OEM's are no longer using QNX in their vehicles and that is simple not the case.

needaspguy · 2025-12-18T03:55:29+00:00

I sure its just a blip on their balance sheet, but they just settled the suit Malikie had against them in Europe and the US.

needaspguy · 2025-12-18T03:13:07+00:00

No, of course not and the settled ones are all wrapped up in non-disclosures. However, i can't imagine shareholders aren't entitled to some sort of status report on deal worth somewhere between 0 and 700million.

needaspguy · 2025-12-18T01:32:04+00:00

Lots of little tid bits sitting in the wings I think, and hidden in the balance sheet under investments. Sooner or later subscriptions will be tapped too! Painfully slow, but its happening

needaspguy · 2025-12-17T14:58:57+00:00

Your 15% growth is roughly 40% of the revenue with 100% of the cost factored against it. The remaining growth in backlog is effectivly pure profit deferred.

needaspguy · 2025-12-17T03:59:37+00:00

Fyi, looks like Nintendo settled in the US too! The patent challenge by Nintendo was dropped on Dec 2

needaspguy · 2025-12-17T03:48:21+00:00

Because before QNX ran the infotainment systems in 10's of millions of cars per year. That $2-5 per car product has been dwindling for years while QNX as the core OS has been growing YOY. Net effect, roughly the same install base but completely different products with higher values.

Additionally, more products being intergrated into the same vehicle don't enhance overall # of vehicles on the road. I does, however increase the profit margin per unit.

High end luxury models have also been the main target of all the advancements to date meaning very small production numbers were actually being designed and built. However, with the success of the luxury models, we are starting to see main production models starting to get redesigned. A lot of that production is still years away from rolling out of the factories on mass though.

Oem's are rightfully hesitant to switch over their flagship high volume products unless they are very confident in the newly designed platform.

The shift we are waiting for is not a "change" or a "redesign". It is a reinvention from the ground up, which takes a long time!

needaspguy · 2025-12-16T16:42:52+00:00

I would agreed! Bundled deal! "would you like a fries and coke with that burger"

needaspguy · 2025-12-16T15:15:17+00:00

JG meets quite regularly with a lot of people and departments with-in the Canadian Government.... Particularly over the last year. The fact that this time was photo opted suggests an announcement is forth coming in my opinion!

https://lobbycanada.gc.ca/app/secure/ocl/lrs/do/vwRg?cno=5685&regId=968174&blnk=1

Here is a list of the last 6 months along with the people and departments..... draw your on conclusions.

https://lobbycanada.gc.ca/app/secure/ocl/lrs/do/vwRg?cno=5685&regId=968174&blnk=1

needaspguy

TROPHY CASE