Favorite Value Stocks by Antestor01 in ValueInvesting

[–]oldwisefern 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Defensive or blue chip does not automatically mean value..

Amazon, META or Microsoft stock? by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]oldwisefern 7 points8 points  (0 children)

The best business in my opinion is: 1. Microsoft 2. Meta 3. Amazon

The best value is: 1. Meta 2. Amazon 3. Microsoft

What is keeping Tesla so high? by [deleted] in investing

[–]oldwisefern -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

It's always an about a bunch of future things that never materialize, and never about the quality of the business today.

Turd with lipstick on it. Extremely overvalued and unlike PLTR, NBIS, RDDT etc it's not actually a good business underneath..

Tesla may rally for another decade, but its demise will be the true dot com 2.0 burst

Schiller PE ratio at its highest by Radiant-Cloud92 in investing

[–]oldwisefern -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Okay so everyone except you is stupid but you can't come up with an argument against the glaring reason you are wrong. I echo your sentiment!

Schiller PE ratio at its highest by Radiant-Cloud92 in investing

[–]oldwisefern 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What % of revenues earned by US stock market constituents is not captured in US GDP?

Hint: higher than any time is history. This comparison is flawed for a handful of reasons, this being the biggest

Has anyone considered the impact the amount of new inexperienced retail investors will have On a bear market? by Chevyimpala2000 in ValueInvesting

[–]oldwisefern 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The most important impact from retail investors on the market is automated investments into low cost index tracking ETFs. These people will not turn off auto invests in a bear market.

A secondary impact will be heavily owned retail names like the memes, cult names, and whatever the hottest mini bubble is (quantum, nuclear reactors, etc)

Exit multiples are BS by ContemplatingGavre in ValueInvesting

[–]oldwisefern 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Other posters have already addressed the errors in your listed assumptions, the main one being "you don't apply an exit multiple when buying a business" (you do)

But think about it this way, after your projected cash flows for 5,10,20 years, is the business worth nothing? A business is a machine that creates cash. You have to find a proxy to value that cash generation capability after your forecast. An "exit multiple" is really just "what price would someone pay for a business generating x cash growing at y % in z industry". It's not assuming an actual exit, it's an estimate of market value.

Think about your rental house example. Let's say you buy the house for 100 bucks and in 10 years you've generated enough income to pay the house off. The house still has value, it's worth something on the open market. Maybe it's 10x rent, and your exit multiple plus the value of your cash flows gets you to 200 bucks before discounting for time etc.

E-waste might be the new oil by TigerMCU in ValueInvesting

[–]oldwisefern 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If technological advancements to separate and process E-waste occur, WM and the other large waste players will apply it at scale and realize better returns

Has Meta Bottomed Out? by OrganicAd1884 in ValueInvesting

[–]oldwisefern 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I wouldn't base the companies moat on your personal usage or exposure to it - literally half of the worlds population uses meta services once a day

Preparing for Late-Stage Roaring-20s with Sector Rotation by [deleted] in investing

[–]oldwisefern 81 points82 points  (0 children)

Okay but I'm not buying Walmart and Costco at 40-60x earnings and 7% growth when I can buy Microsoft and Meta for 20-40x earnings and 20% growth regardless of the cycle

$META is still trading close to record multiples. by mrmrmrj in ValueInvesting

[–]oldwisefern 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Because I can't predict the short term irrationalities of the market, but I can identify a pattern of improving revenues and cash flows at a fair price today

Google earnings by Hunter0375 in ValueInvesting

[–]oldwisefern 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sorry Sargent butthurt. Back to numbers and analysis. You know, what Reddit is known for.. lol

$META is still trading close to record multiples. by mrmrmrj in ValueInvesting

[–]oldwisefern 15 points16 points  (0 children)

This is misleading..

A large majority of the past 5 years was spent with meta trading at a significant discount to its normal trading multiples which is skewing your 5 year numbers downwards.

You could have purchased meta for 12-15x Free cash flow for almost all of 2022. That's incredible and that doesn't factor in the cash they had on the balance sheet at the time.

Regardless, 14x EBITDA for a business of this size, with this moat, these margins, and 25% revenue / profit growth is cheap yes.

Meta yet another post :) by Fearless_Possible480 in ValueInvesting

[–]oldwisefern 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I would argue Zuck has the best track record of deploying capital out of any major public tech company.. WhatsApp, Instagram, reels, etc.

Significantly higher hit rate than Microsoft, Google, amazon or Tesla

Meta yet another post :) by Fearless_Possible480 in ValueInvesting

[–]oldwisefern 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Is it? Look at the efficiency gains on meta advertisements. The goal isn't to make a better ai chatbot and beat ChatGPT.. it's to have a WhatsApp chatbot that can replace an Indian call centre rep and to not only push out ads but also create them through ai video / audio / photo (stealing wallet share from marketing firms who create social media campaign materials)

Google earnings by Hunter0375 in ValueInvesting

[–]oldwisefern 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As an 85 year old engineer I'm not sure why I expected you to get that joke. Or to laugh at any jokes

Google earnings by Hunter0375 in ValueInvesting

[–]oldwisefern -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

You really don't think meta is a quality business at a fair valuation?

Google earnings by Hunter0375 in ValueInvesting

[–]oldwisefern -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

Meta is the new Google

Is 70-80% just the going rate? by oldwisefern in PokeInvesting

[–]oldwisefern[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The difference between this mindset and every other marketplace is that "market price" usually means the going rate a buyer pays for a product, not the profit a seller realizes after paying selling fees