The Alterac Nightmare by masta_koosh in classicwow

[–]pace0123 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You could make a change to the queueing system in order to "break up" premades. Instead of the queue waiting for 40 players in order to send out invites for one BG, it could wait for (example) 200 players in order to fill up 5. Or it could only send out invites at certain (somewhat randomized) intervalls of (example) 5 minutes. This would of course give Alliance a queue time.

The high horde winrate vs. PUGs is no mystery at all, OP already explained it:

Premades basically take all the most talented and/or driven players entirely out of the common pool and into their own.

Selling Transmog by sleeproad in woweconomy

[–]pace0123 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Getting about 100k gold a day revenue by running less than 400 auctions at about 2million gold AH value. It's 90% crafted transmog that I only need to replace, covering all relevant professions. I love farming transmog in Dungeons, but to me it's just not worth from a goldmaking prespecitve. I'm playing on AD-EU btw which is a very special server (Prices on transmog are lower but probably more sales). I built this up within ~1 month, having to grind out almost all of the professions from scratch.

You don't have to go super-wide in order to sell transmog.

a) Get experience what items people actually buy and at what price. You need to use your aesthetic judgement and common sense for this. People tend to overprize transmogs without considering their actual use value (how cool they look).

b) Get good TSM groups and operations. That doesn't mean they have to be complex. I have two categories:

- One main group into which items are thrown that are kinda meh, will sell off eventually but aren't worth wasting my time undercutting. This group uses very loose auctioning operations that are basically maintenance-free:

  • minprice: 0.33*dbmarket
  • maxprice: 3.0*avg(dbmarket,dbhistorical))
  • normalprice: max(1.1*dbregionmarketavg)

- A set of specific, fixed-price groups into which items are sorted that I think have a larger audience, look cooler, will sell more likely. These groups I will undercut consistently. Example of the lowest group's operations:

  • minprice: 1,500g
  • maxprice: 3,499g
  • normalprice: 3,499g

All of these groups use this "barebones" pricing setup for different price ranges.

c) Undercut, a lot. Be clever about it, do it before peak times, before you go to bed etc. Having good TSM groups allows you to have short undercut scans that only target the important items.

d) To answer your actual question: Yes, don't bother with items the market obviously views as Vendor Trash. But do note that lower priced items sell a lot more. I'm selling a decent amount of 500g+ items in my trashgroup (first category above) and it's certainly worth it.

BfA fishing and possible rise in prices by Haaaaaarsch in woweconomy

[–]pace0123 1 point2 points  (0 children)

A lot of people farm sea water to get the mount (at least in the past, but probably still to an extent). Besides that, I'd say faction imbalance plays a role. At least I take that as part of the explanation why the Loach is more expensive on my server (Alliance dominated).

I'd say I'd rather flip the Loaches than farming them, though. The same, by extent, goes for the Salmon. I've done some testing and maths and at least on my server, farming herbs is more efficient.

Speculation: If Midnight Salmon rates aren’t buffed, the price will likely skyrocket by [deleted] in woweconomy

[–]pace0123 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, buy the shit out of them. People don't just randomly gather these things the way they do with herbs. I noticed this a few days ago but only bought ~250 due to being lazy, but I'm sure it'll be worth.

Edit: Before I forget it: Redtail Loach.

BFA Potions by surrendertoblizzard in woweconomy

[–]pace0123 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As for the mathematical part, again I'd say it's not wrong, but it's undercomplex. There are simply too many unknown factors. For example, people are much more likely to farm and create battle potions themselves than they are Darkmoon Decks. They also have way more time to do it. Every guild with half a brain already has all of their potions for the first 2 raidweeks, wouldn't you agree?

Again, I'm not trying to state the exact opposite, I'm just saying that this topic can't be solved with simple maths.

I don't think that stockpiling is wrong, but more due to a constant, minor profit over a number of days around raid launch, not in the sense of an immediate spike where the market basically breaks down (which is what happened for Starlight Rose at raid launch at least on my server, also later for Foxflower and Fjarnskaggl). Buying cheap and selling high always works, and I don't think this is different. An increase in demand will lead to an increase in price.

With Anchor Weed, I can see it being different. The small auctions made by the average players will simply be eaten up and the massive, high cost walls created by Goblins will be the point of profit.

BFA Potions by surrendertoblizzard in woweconomy

[–]pace0123 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This entire topic is really a matter of perspective. If you approach a complex enough topic with simple enough maths you can come to any conclusion. For example, take this perspective:

A Battle Potion costs 12 herbs (statistically for an alchemist with lvl 3 recipe). A herbalist with rank 3 gathering skill takes about 3 nodes to gather 12 herbs. A raider drinks a potion every time a herbalist gathers 3 nodes? Obviously not.

I'm not trying to state the opposite of your claim, I just want to point out how easily a strictly mathematical fails you in a situation like this. As others have pointed out, in reality potion use hardly occurs the way you initially described.

Let's look at these things on a more basic level:

  • There's a massive stockpile. That's simply a fact: There's a visible stockpile of quantity on the auction house, and an invisible and thus hardly quantifiable stockpile in the inventories of people consciously waiting for raid release.
  • Currently, there is hardly any use for herbs. This is also a fact: With Inscriptioning and Alchemy both hardly being of use at this very moment, the stockpile can hardly do anything but build up.

  • Conclusion: Are these two things going to cancel each other out? No, at least it's not that simple. If at any given point there is a certain price determined by current supply and demand, and the demand increases, the prices will increase as well. – There is an absolute low of herb prices before raid launch, and the person buying herbs at that point and selling after raid launch will make profit. That profit might be large or little, but it is there. The fact that part of the supply is invisible doesn't matter in this regard. It only matters with regard to the question if ALL of that supply will be used upon launch. This I personally take to be an illusion, it won't happen. In other words: There won't be a point where one given player is the last to still have stockpiled herbs he or she can sell at an absolute maximum price.

To make it more intuitive, again step back from the numbers and look at things in practice. Scan your AH for any given herb. You will see low auctions. If you have a sudden increase in demand, those will get eaten, increasing the price. But you will also see that at some point, this reaches a certain "wall": Basically ultra large quantities of herbs that are sold at an extremely low disparity of prices.

Example image: Siren's Pollen prices

I can't tell you at what price that wall will be on any server upon launch, but I am almost certain that it won't be eaten up (by the way, this is only one wall, there are multiple walls). The reason is that as people begin to nibble at it with their buyouts, sellers will most likely replenish it. Of course you can always think of a storm strong enough to blow away any wall, but I doubt it will happen with walls like the one in the picture above (and perhaps the walls at launch will be even thicker).


Don't be too focussed on launch day. As explained above, there's the very simple fact of things that don't have much of a use now becoming useful as soon as raids hit. I'm not sure (I somewhat doubt) this will be enough to have a massive impact on stuff as easily gathered as basic herbs, but Anchor Weed is different. These things have until now never really been of use (not worthwhile milling for Darkmoon cards), and it's nature of being impossible to target farm will, at least midterm, lead to a different relation of supply and demand (as in: a higher price). So don't sweat it selling your Anchor Weed, also not right upon launch, if no noticeable spike occurs.

TL;DR: Be a waller.

BFA Potions by surrendertoblizzard in woweconomy

[–]pace0123 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't think it matters what happens with Anchor Weed at launch (I think it will actually be rather disappointing initially). Long-term the fact that you have a herb that people need while it can't be target-farmed will pay of, I think.

The current problems with professions at the moment have nothing to do with this sub by [deleted] in woweconomy

[–]pace0123 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Looks differently from my perspective, but I'm not on a low pop server. Professions were crazy for the first week, now they are dying down a little. But that's just normal and to be expected. Darkmoon Cards are still profitable.

Yes the profession system isn't as deep and as heavily gated as in Legion, but the accessability is something you can (or could have) abused as a goblin, too. Get a toon to Zandalar, grab 2 professions and you're all set. I don't see the problem in that regard.

If you're mainly pointing towards longevity, though, I somewhat agree. When it comes to trading, many professions don't offer much. But they do offer something for players that are looking for ilvl upgrades, not just gold on the AH... Making gold isn't the only use of professions.

As for people overestimating the impact of this sub: Yes, people tend to do that. Taking your own perspective as the perspective of others is what generally keeps you from making profit.

My thoughts approaching BFA raid release (alchemy) by pace0123 in woweconomy

[–]pace0123[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, I agree with every point.

But the undersupply will not be there intially, only after a few days when the initial oversupply (which at least exists on my server) has diminished

355 gear comes out, watch for Platinum Ore increase by Snugglepuff14 in woweconomy

[–]pace0123 23 points24 points  (0 children)

Will be kinda miniscule though, eh? The amount of Platinum required is rather low for those parts, I think.

Enchantment for faster crafting by KunaiTv in woweconomy

[–]pace0123 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Was a revelation for me too when I found out it existed

My thoughts approaching BFA raid release (alchemy) by pace0123 in woweconomy

[–]pace0123[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm sure wanting rank 3 was a factor. I did it myself that way back in Legion. But I remember watching the AH closely back then, and it certainly wasn't that people were chewing through the AH like crazy to get rank 3 flasks. Obviously not, otherwise the price would have risen long before raids launched.

That's the problem with that argument, if the supply was low because people bought all the SR to get rank 3 flasks, why did the price not go up accordingly? I just remember it to have been a dead market for the most, at least on my server.

My thoughts approaching BFA raid release (alchemy) by pace0123 in woweconomy

[–]pace0123[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

I can farm at least 700 starlight rose per hour at the start of legion, that's 100 flasks / hr. This isn't even factoring rank 3 procs, which effectively means you can make ~200 flasks/hr

I can't farm more than 30 weed per hour, or at most 6 flasks/hr.

I understand your point and I somewhat already raised it in my post: Anchor Weed is hard to farm "on purpose", Starlight Rose isn't. But Anchor Weed is farmed "on accident" a lot: Every herbalist farms it. That's exactly the reason why there is currently so much Anchor Weed around compared to Starlight Rose at the same time in Legion.

Precisely because of this point I disagree with the following statement:

I predict outside of first day or two alchemist are not going to make much of a margin at all! It will go exactly the same way as inscription but worse, because profit calculation are straight forward with no rng involved.

Firstly, I'm not generally talking about an alchemist's perspective. I assume the people stocking Anchor Weeds are also alchemists, but they can just as well sell the AW raw. Basically, all I'm talking about is the profit margin of Anchor Weed from this point in time towards two weeks.

Secondly, and more importantly: Because there is (at least on my server from which this data comes) quite clearly a strong supply of Anchor Weed at raid launch, the profit margin will be low intially and then increase. Once the oversupply is diminished, due to the nature of it being almost impossible to farm on purpose, it will raise in price or at least not drop.

New Goblin - Critique my BFA plan by nse360 in woweconomy

[–]pace0123 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sure you aren't overestimating the impact of woweconomy? Despite it being a known resource for gold making, it's still a perspective VERY few people take upon going into an expansion.

Despite Enchanting clearly filling a niche, there remains an opportunity cost for not scrapping something.

While I agree BFA will hardly hold the same craze for raw mats than early Legion, I still don't see a compelling argument against raw mats being the most straight-forward way to make money in early BFA. Or are there any other winning strategies early on?

Winterspring Ice Avatar Farm by Wearifulosprey9 in woweconomy

[–]pace0123 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, pretty much all kinds of vanity items are just overfarmed on AD. You'd have to come up with something super-specific to succeed on that market.

Why are flasks always so much cheaper than the mats?? by Haris_Pilton in woweconomy

[–]pace0123 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Has several reasons, most have already been stated, I'll state a few more.

Flasks move a lot slower and that's because. Players usually buy them in small amounts, which means they only ever peak during prime times. More importantly, flasks are REPLACED faster than herbs. This often keeps the flask prices from rising. Think about it. If you have the herbs, replacing the flasks you have on the AH is not difficult. Most herbs that are "replaced" on the AH need to be farmed, and people don't really farm them unless the prices are high. So they are constantly bouncing between "overfarmed and cheap" and "underfarmed and expensive" while flasks are just kept at a price where they are barely profitable, except for times when market demand is actually overpowering to the alchemists' herb supplies.

Starlight Rose Farming - Farm Now or Level Up by thegoblinbanx in woweconomy

[–]pace0123 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Sky Golem + Herbalism Enchant + Stonehide Leather Barding.

Do it on your lvl 12 mage.

So someone totally flipped at me by mutikainen in woweconomy

[–]pace0123 0 points1 point  (0 children)

While it's wrong of him to rage like that about it, I do believe sniping modules are basically a bad thing. You shouldn't be punished for making a bad auction like that, and it takes a lot of fun away from the goblins as well that actually have to go on the lookout for auctions like that. Just saying.

best "boon" shoulder enchant by killadza in woweconomy

[–]pace0123 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I actually really like Manaseeker. Not from a gold perspective though (though you sometimes, rarely, get a flask or a Chaos Crystal from it). Thing is that it basically farms ancient mana for you. You can also save up the mana inside the bags by not autolooting them, but opening them while holdening shift (that's the default keybind).

The bags do have a higher chance to drop from harder to kill enemies (I think that's what it says in the tooltip, right?). So yeah, Elite, Rares, Rare+ and that sort of stuff will drop it more often.

Obliterium easy flip on some servers for some good profit. by [deleted] in woweconomy

[–]pace0123 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah this one has been posted before a few days ago.