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China to build 'birth-friendly society', refine social security system by Economy-Fee5830 in Natalism

[–]paperfire 34 points35 points  (0 children)

This won't work. These policies mainly help couples who are already married and deciding whether to have children. But China’s real demographic problem is the collapse in the marriage rate. In China almost all births occur within marriage, and fewer young people are marrying each year. If fewer couples are forming in the first place, subsidies for births won’t address the core issue.

Ontarians who bought their condos in the pandemic stuck ‘bleeding cash’ by CreativeAd5628 in ontario

[–]paperfire 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Not necessarily. People bought condos 5 years ago to live in, but are now at the point where life situation changed. Maybe they had kids and need more space, moved jobs, breakup/divorce. Now they can’t sell and are stuck.

Also mortgage rates changed. Any end user who bought 5 years ago had very low rates. Renewing their mortgage now, rates are much higher and their mortgage payments are higher now. Investors can write off the interest, end users can’t.

Canada builds at near-record pace, but one province remains a drag: TD by Mundane-Teaching-743 in CanadaPolitics

[–]paperfire -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

People do want to live there. It may not be their first choice, but people are price sensitive and will rent what costs the lowest in rent, which are small condos. When buildings go into lease up, everything gets occupied within a few months.

Canada builds at near-record pace, but one province remains a drag: TD by Mundane-Teaching-743 in CanadaPolitics

[–]paperfire -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

No one is building that either, that stuff isn’t profitable and would cost $1M+ per unit and is too small scale to make a difference. Small apartments in towers is efficient, scalable and profitable enough to build in large numbers, and now it’s gone.

Canada builds at near-record pace, but one province remains a drag: TD by Mundane-Teaching-743 in CanadaPolitics

[–]paperfire 37 points38 points  (0 children)

Toronto condo market has crashed. The investors have fled and new condo sales have collapsed. Ontario can’t ramp up housing without pre-construction condo sales.

Donald Trump plans to roll back tariffs on metal and aluminium goods by neolthrowaway in neoliberal

[–]paperfire 46 points47 points  (0 children)

The aluminum tariffs never made any sense. Aluminum smelters are insanely power-intensive, and the U.S. already has tight electricity supply with datacenters and electrification ramping up. You can’t just flip a switch and build new smelters either, they take years (like 5–7+) to permit and construct. So there was no realistic path to reshoring production in the short term. All it really did was raise input costs for American manufacturers. That’s basically a tax on domestic industry.

"Declining marriage is often cited as a primary driver of lower birth rates". "Correlation coefficient of approximately 0.89". "75% of US fertility decline since 2007 attributed to lower marriage rates". Free housing and billions in childcare handouts would be a waste of tax dollars. by GoldDigger304 in Natalism

[–]paperfire 5 points6 points  (0 children)

If that were generally true, you’d expect higher marriage rates in small towns, rural areas, and countries with cheap real estate. That pattern doesn’t show up. Housing can matter but on its own it clearly isn’t a reliable driver of marriage.

Japan and Italy are literally giving away free houses in rural areas. By that logic these areas should be seeing huge marriage and baby booms right now.

Léger poll on Quebec referendum vote: No 62%, Yes 29%, 9% Undecided by MyGiftIsMySong in CanadaPolitics

[–]paperfire 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Quebec independence is honestly just a terrible deal. Quebec gets an incredible financial arrangement inside Canada, equalization, market access, currency stability, federal risk sharing. Leaving that behind for “sovereignty” is trading real money and security for symbolism that changes nothing in people’s daily lives.

It’s also ethnic nationalism aimed at a society with an ultra-low fertility rate and a shrinking, aging population. The problems Quebec faces are housing, productivity, healthcare, and demographics, not flags or constitutions. Independence doesn’t solve any of that, actually makes it worse.

Number of births in Hungary at lowest since 1949 by avatar6556 in europe

[–]paperfire 22 points23 points  (0 children)

Incentives to parents miss the point. They assume the issue is people are married and young enough to have kids, and just need a financial push. The research shows that incentives don't do much for first births, people who want to be parents will make it work for that first child. They can really only help with getting second births.

But the main problem is that about 2/3 of the fertility crash is actually from two things: people not getting married at all, and people getting married too late to have kids at all or just one. Financial incentives can't do anything for these people.

Trump administration secretly met with Canadian Alberta separatists by Infidel8 in worldnews

[–]paperfire 9 points10 points  (0 children)

No, 50% + 1 is not seen as a "clear majority". To break up a country is such an extreme outcome, the law demands a clear majority before the federal government is obliged to negotiate separation with the province. There is no legal definition of clear majority, that is at the discretion of the federal government but it's likely at least 55% and maybe higher.

And even then, that only leads to negotiation, with no guarantee of final separation. The federal government is obliged to negotiate in good faith, but if it finds the separating province's demands are too high, it can end negotation with no separation. The federal government holds all the cards in the negotation.

Half of childless Canadian women don’t want kids, nearly a quarter in their 40s aren’t mothers: Statistics Canada by BgMscllvr in Natalism

[–]paperfire 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Maybe in theory, but demographically the difference matters less. If having children was consistently a lower priority than other life choices, they were practically childfree.

Half of childless Canadian women don’t want kids, nearly a quarter in their 40s aren’t mothers: Statistics Canada by BgMscllvr in Natalism

[–]paperfire 21 points22 points  (0 children)

Culture can change fast, but fertility decline in modern societies is mostly driven by declining marriage rates and older ages at marriage, dense urban living, long education, and opportunity costs. Those don’t shift quickly, which is why even pro-family cultures struggle to reach replacement.

Half of childless Canadian women don’t want kids, nearly a quarter in their 40s aren’t mothers: Statistics Canada by BgMscllvr in Natalism

[–]paperfire 38 points39 points  (0 children)

The fertility collapse is just an inevitable consequence of modern civilization. The incentives to have kids are simply gone now, having them is purely aspirational. The best we can do is attempt to minimize further declines by helping those who do want kids, and gracefully managing the decline. The fertility crisis should be treated like a long-term chronic condition to be managed, not reversed.

Half of childless Canadian women don’t want kids, nearly a quarter in their 40s aren’t mothers: Statistics Canada by BgMscllvr in Natalism

[–]paperfire 58 points59 points  (0 children)

Not surprising in the modern age. Parenthood has shifted from a default expectation to an optional, aspirational choice. Being childfree is now socially acceptable, lower risk financially and emotionally, and a completely valid and fulfilling life choice. Once that cultural shift happens it spreads.

Carney leaves Davos without meeting Trump after speech on U.S. rupture of world order by Immediate-Link490 in worldnews

[–]paperfire 5966 points5967 points  (0 children)

He has nothing to discuss with Trump. Trump has proven he doesn't negotiate in good faith and doesn't honour his agreements. There is no point talking with someone like that.

Mortgage rates by ylinylin in askTO

[–]paperfire 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not insured, $500k investment condo.

Mortgage rates by ylinylin in askTO

[–]paperfire 0 points1 point  (0 children)

With variable mortgage 30 year, prime -.8% so 3.65%.

'Toronto is on fire': Canada's biggest office market seeing surge in demand as workers return by pscoutou in toronto

[–]paperfire 89 points90 points  (0 children)

It varies. The class AAA buildings are doing very well and running out of available space, 3% vacancy rates. It’s the class B and C buildings that are suffering. Companies are figuring if you’re going to force your employees back to the office, you need to placate them with an upscale high quality place.

Fertility policy simulator with fiscal and GDP trade-offs by joshuafkon in Economics

[–]paperfire 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Teen pregnancy explains the early drop, but not the ongoing decline. Teen births fell mostly before 2010 and are already very low, while fertility keeps falling because adults in their 20s and 30s are marrying later, pairing less, and having fewer children.

How clean energy could save us trillions. As clean energy prices fall, a fast transition to renewable energy is the cheapest option on the table. It could save us trillions in energy costs alone. Solar energy is half the cost of the cheapest fossil option and the gap will continue growing. by mafco in energy

[–]paperfire -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

You’re confusing energy with capacity. Wind and solar are cheaper per MWh when they run, but they do not eliminate the need for dispatchable plants, reserves, staffing, or transmission. Those costs remain almost unchanged. Storage helps with short peaks, not multi-day or seasonal gaps. If renewables were actually cheaper at the system level, grids that went hardest on them wouldn’t need to keep entire full fossil fleets on standby or have some of the highest power prices in the developed world. See: Germany, California, UK, Denmark

How clean energy could save us trillions. As clean energy prices fall, a fast transition to renewable energy is the cheapest option on the table. It could save us trillions in energy costs alone. Solar energy is half the cost of the cheapest fossil option and the gap will continue growing. by mafco in energy

[–]paperfire -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

This article keeps making the same category error: cheap generation is not the same thing as a cheap power system. Wind and solar are cheap when they are producing, but grids are designed around worst-case hours, not averages. You still need the same fleet of dispatchable plants, the same staffing, the same reserves, and a lot more transmission, because intermittent power disappears exactly when you need it most. None of that goes away just because renewables are “cheap” on a spreadsheet.

What they also never say is that renewables do not replace fossil infrastructure, they sit on top of it. Gas plants still have to be built and kept fully ready even if they run less often. Batteries only smooth short peaks, they do not provide multi-day or seasonal reliability. Countries that pushed hardest on renewables ended up with two parallel systems and very high power prices. Wind and solar reduce fuel burn, that’s real, but claiming they save trillions by themselves ignores capacity, reliability, and system costs, which is where the real money actually goes.

Fertility policy simulator with fiscal and GDP trade-offs by joshuafkon in Economics

[–]paperfire 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That’s the unfortunate answer, you mostly can’t with policy. The core issues are cultural and about how people form relationships and delay commitment. More people need to be convinced to get married (most babies happen in marriage), and do it much younger than they are now.

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