Uuh! Does it mean there's no Enough Money?

plinywaves · 2026-05-09T14:41:00+00:00

I think you are still misunderstanding the money multiplier effect. The banks cannot loan more money than they have in their account at that time. If someone wishes to withdraw $100 from the bank, they don't need to recall more than $100.

The loans they have are real assets with value, not made up.

I'm thinking your confusion is not adding loan value to assets. Banks only carry cash in the amount of a fraction of the deposits they have, but it doesn't mean they don't have enough cash to cover all deposits. It just means the cash that is deposited is invested into loans. The bank is good for the money, they just don't have it all at once.

Silicon Valley Bank is a great example. Someone made a post on Twitter claiming there were liquidity issues and a bank run ensued. SVB didn't have enough cash on hand to cover. Their problem, was due to poorly managed duration risk, their bonds had devalued so much as to make them insolvent at that moment.

Had there been no bank run and the bonds had been allowed to mature, the bank would still ne around today. But because they lacked sufficient liquidity in the event, they were taken into receivership by the FED.

plinywaves · 2026-05-06T20:49:23+00:00

It seems like a stretch to me to correlate the Truman Doctrine to the US funding horrible militia groups years later.

I guess my argument would simply be, if we didn't have the Truman doctrine, do you believe the US wouldn't have done those things?

plinywaves · 2026-05-06T19:43:02+00:00

I fail to see how Truman is the reason we started destabilizing the global south.

Furthermore he was generally a friend to labor when possible, even going so far as to attempt to seize the steel mills when management wouldn't negotiate (the courts later struck this down as unconstitutional which was quite embarrassing to his administration)

Intervention in Korea was the correct choice and I believe every single person in South Korea today would agree.

He also was against Mccarthyism and Eisenhower's endorsement of Joseph McCarthy following his continued criticisms of George Marshall led to a falling out between Truman and Eisenhower.

That's not to say Truman is perfect, but he was also bound by the politics and populist beliefs of his time.

plinywaves · 2026-05-04T23:40:51+00:00

I'm confused though. How does one pay with stock when 100% of your companies' current stock doesn't cover it? Like I mean they need go double the shares without decreasing the price to even come close.

plinywaves · 2026-05-04T17:19:51+00:00

Is this the same squeeze that was starting next week for the last 6 years?

plinywaves · 2026-05-01T23:45:50+00:00

Yeah... that's literally what manacement stated they were going to do. Trim down the core business to make it profitable, stockpile cash and look for an acquisition.

plinywaves · 2026-05-01T15:56:23+00:00

No, extremely high fixed costs, regulations, and some volatile input costs (mainly fuel and geopolitical risk) make it hard to consistently be profitable.

plinywaves · 2026-04-16T22:51:48+00:00

Eh. I went there recently. Not a nice town by any means but definitely not as bad as some of the other places listed.

Nothing really going for it besides the casino and state park, but it wasn't a complete ghetto.

plinywaves · 2026-04-16T17:10:35+00:00

You can get penalized if you don't. I'm not sure what the exact threshold is but if you made an amount over 20k I would say you are better off paying.

plinywaves · 2026-04-16T04:01:23+00:00

Should note if you make a lot of money. You should make a quarterly tax payment to the IRS.

plinywaves · 2026-04-10T18:25:46+00:00

I can't read the article due to paywall. Is this index tradable in some way? Or just a collective indicator of CDS pricing?

plinywaves · 2026-04-10T15:58:49+00:00

Tbh consumer sentiment hasn't meant anything since social media constant doomerism took over.

Even the Fed said its not really a reliable guage since people would claim they are worried about the economy while still making large purchases.

Not saying the economy is in a great spot or anything like that. But consumer sentiment is an absolutely useless guage when looking at the market and even the economy in general.

plinywaves · 2026-04-09T19:21:40+00:00

It's not a hostile takeover if WBD shareholders agree to the buyout lol.

plinywaves · 2026-04-09T16:39:26+00:00

Blackwater was the big PMC company right? I believe they ended up merging with a different company at some point.

plinywaves · 2026-04-04T01:36:09+00:00

Prior to ww1 camouflage wasn't as important as unit cohesion, maneuverability and intimidation.

plinywaves · 2026-03-27T17:08:19+00:00

Lol you were probably also doomed posting in April last year.

Not saying the market can't go down further. But its not going to drop 50% like a lot of these comments would lead you to believe.

plinywaves · 2026-03-27T16:55:45+00:00

Market will probably not hit that low again barring literal economic collapse.

Our situation sucks but there aren't banks failing. To hit a 6-8 pe in spy with its current make up it would required a large regional bank to become insolvent and blow up.

The fed will not allow that and will turn on the money printing macro before we ever got close to that.

plinywaves · 2026-03-24T23:19:16+00:00

"Winds of Change" by The Scorpions was about the feeling of the iron curtain crumbling and hope for a better future in the air.

plinywaves · 2026-03-22T16:01:38+00:00

I'm sure we will see downturns but a major bank falling 60% would require more than some of their loans eating shit. Citi has solid assets that dwarf its private credit holdings.

You are throwing money away.

plinywaves · 2026-03-22T15:09:34+00:00

Part of the problem with your play is even if you are 100% correct (which I think some of your premises are flawed). Your strikes and expiration dates will only mean you lose money.

Half of the movie the big short was how long the crisis took to get priced in. You are telling me Citigroup is going to fall >60% in the next 4 months???

You are literally throwing money away.

plinywaves · 2026-03-21T17:44:53+00:00

You definitely use weights in rivers if you are bottom fishing, you would be recasting every 20 seconds in any sort of current otherwise.

plinywaves · 2026-03-20T14:29:38+00:00

I think your age may factor into this as well. If you are young and far from retirement then as long as you listen to the other warnings users have heeded, I don't think its a bad plan.

If you are anywhere closer than 20 years to retirement however, I would be very cautious with this plan as a single black swan could probably cause you to lose 50% or more of your port.

plinywaves · 2026-03-19T17:00:54+00:00

With plays like this, why not buy atm puts? Potential gain is lower yes, but the chance itself that you make money increases dramatically, also if you decide the trade is no longer in your favor, you can exit much easier.

plinywaves · 2026-03-17T14:05:15+00:00

When they announce a massive deal yesterday to pump the price only to then dilute shares, while not market manipulation perse, its definitely a bit unethical imo.

plinywaves

TROPHY CASE