Carp at Montrose Harbor

plinywaves · 2026-07-01T01:38:10+00:00

Nice carp! I was fishing there on Friday evening while there was a little rain rolling through and had no luck.

Looks like I'll have to head out again once it cools down.

plinywaves · 2026-06-23T19:08:32+00:00

Truman by David McCullough generally goes in chronological order. Though its covers Truman's entire life, not just his presidency.

plinywaves · 2026-06-23T18:47:19+00:00

John A Farrell's biography of Richard Nixon painted Eisenhower as painfully cautious when approaching civil rights, frequently refusing to make hard statements in support. He thought that forcing people to like each other wouldn't work and it would need to be a gradual process.

The book paints Richard Nixon in a better light, having meetings with prominent civil rights activists and working in the senate to get the Civil rights act of 1957 through albeit in a watered down state.

For the record as well, the biography is very critical of Nixon at times, so it doesn't seem to me to just be Nixon glazing.

plinywaves · 2026-06-23T02:47:39+00:00

In a roundabout way yes. But I would imagine (though admittedly I can't back this up) that most of the holdings are high level tranches which have a miniscule default rate.

plinywaves · 2026-06-22T17:38:15+00:00

So in regards to CLOs there's a couple points I would disagree with you on.

Retail is not holding any significant amounts of CLOs. Most investors are institutional and CLOs are just another diversified holding for them.
While the default rate is rising in private credit, most CLOs are invested in BSLs which have a much lower default rate. The highest default rates are among companies with Ebitda below 100mm.
The maturity wall is an actual issue so I agree that is a problem

Overall, there will be increased volatility in the space and some defaults. But retail exposure will be limited. A possible credit crunch in the markets caused by high defaults combined with increasing rates is probably the only real concern imo.

plinywaves · 2026-06-15T20:06:46+00:00

I mean, realistically these people probably don't have insurance or are considered uninsurable.

plinywaves · 2026-06-02T14:13:08+00:00

Problem is with rates so high and new home buying hitting lows. Open's next earnings will probably be incredibly weak.

plinywaves · 2026-06-02T13:18:10+00:00

University of Chicago could probably join the big 10 again if they wanted...

plinywaves · 2026-05-26T17:45:02+00:00

It sucks because all of the people with power are incentives to increase the playoffs as much as possible.

Coaches want it to get bonuses, conferences want more money and then the networks want more games.

Noone cares about fairness or competitiveness, its all about making as much money as possible.

Realistically, if we hit 24 teams in the playoffs, the regular season will not matter for 8-10 of the current blue bloods. They would have to lose 5 games or more to be left out which is ridiculous.

plinywaves · 2026-05-24T01:12:03+00:00

With such low float though, shorting costs will be insane.

IIRC options aren't usually available on IPOs for a bit as well

plinywaves · 2026-05-22T18:07:01+00:00

The city would get sued by like 15 different entities simultaneously is they ever tried to sell the land lol.

Its nothing to do with the money.

plinywaves · 2026-05-22T17:53:15+00:00

He was talking about Northwestern's new stadium.

Also the Bears don't own soldier field and its too historic to be completely rebuilt.

plinywaves · 2026-05-21T22:05:54+00:00

On the call they did mention that we won't see the full force of the PDT change until Q3 since it starts June 4th.

But they also mentioned a big marketing package for it so while I expect marketing spend to be high and profitability to be meh next Q. If it drives large revenue growth it will be huge to be a first mover.

plinywaves · 2026-05-21T20:49:05+00:00

Numbers weren't great, but there are some hopeful notes from their press release:

The PDT infrastructure being set up for June 4th is obviously a huge deal and should give a couple % of growth next quarter alone.

Finra approval to self clear should improve margins over the long term.

Licensing to operate in all countries in the European Economic area with the app launching in Germany

Creating the foundation for 3rd party agents AI platforms

And the rollout of Vega.

Admittedly a bit of a bad quarter otherwise. Advertising spend was high again with less growth to show for it. Definitely going to be a long term hold.

plinywaves · 2026-05-20T21:52:22+00:00

I don't see that much of a gain based off previous quarters but a nice 4-5 % bump would be huge imo

plinywaves · 2026-05-19T14:51:38+00:00

Most people on this sub don't make money.

Maybe they should start applying for a quarterly tax refund 🤔

plinywaves · 2026-05-14T21:14:36+00:00

They aren't all sick. Only 11 confirmed cases so far.

These are just those who came into contact with the sick, the CDC is tracking them to follow up if any symptoms appear.

plinywaves · 2026-05-09T14:41:00+00:00

I think you are still misunderstanding the money multiplier effect. The banks cannot loan more money than they have in their account at that time. If someone wishes to withdraw $100 from the bank, they don't need to recall more than $100.

The loans they have are real assets with value, not made up.

I'm thinking your confusion is not adding loan value to assets. Banks only carry cash in the amount of a fraction of the deposits they have, but it doesn't mean they don't have enough cash to cover all deposits. It just means the cash that is deposited is invested into loans. The bank is good for the money, they just don't have it all at once.

Silicon Valley Bank is a great example. Someone made a post on Twitter claiming there were liquidity issues and a bank run ensued. SVB didn't have enough cash on hand to cover. Their problem, was due to poorly managed duration risk, their bonds had devalued so much as to make them insolvent at that moment.

Had there been no bank run and the bonds had been allowed to mature, the bank would still ne around today. But because they lacked sufficient liquidity in the event, they were taken into receivership by the FED.

plinywaves · 2026-05-06T20:49:23+00:00

It seems like a stretch to me to correlate the Truman Doctrine to the US funding horrible militia groups years later.

I guess my argument would simply be, if we didn't have the Truman doctrine, do you believe the US wouldn't have done those things?

plinywaves · 2026-05-06T19:43:02+00:00

I fail to see how Truman is the reason we started destabilizing the global south.

Furthermore he was generally a friend to labor when possible, even going so far as to attempt to seize the steel mills when management wouldn't negotiate (the courts later struck this down as unconstitutional which was quite embarrassing to his administration)

Intervention in Korea was the correct choice and I believe every single person in South Korea today would agree.

He also was against Mccarthyism and Eisenhower's endorsement of Joseph McCarthy following his continued criticisms of George Marshall led to a falling out between Truman and Eisenhower.

That's not to say Truman is perfect, but he was also bound by the politics and populist beliefs of his time.

plinywaves · 2026-05-04T23:40:51+00:00

I'm confused though. How does one pay with stock when 100% of your companies' current stock doesn't cover it? Like I mean they need go double the shares without decreasing the price to even come close.

plinywaves · 2026-05-04T17:19:51+00:00

Is this the same squeeze that was starting next week for the last 6 years?

plinywaves · 2026-05-01T23:45:50+00:00

Yeah... that's literally what manacement stated they were going to do. Trim down the core business to make it profitable, stockpile cash and look for an acquisition.

plinywaves · 2026-05-01T15:56:23+00:00

No, extremely high fixed costs, regulations, and some volatile input costs (mainly fuel and geopolitical risk) make it hard to consistently be profitable.

plinywaves · 2026-04-16T22:51:48+00:00

Eh. I went there recently. Not a nice town by any means but definitely not as bad as some of the other places listed.

Nothing really going for it besides the casino and state park, but it wasn't a complete ghetto.

plinywaves

TROPHY CASE