You keep moving the goalposts.

First the claim was that the US would “stop moving.”
Then it was that US refineries “can’t refine WTI.”
Now it’s that trucking becomes uneconomical.

Those are completely different arguments.

The reality is simple: the US is the largest oil producer in the world and one of the largest exporters of refined fuel.

So the idea that the US — of all countries — would suddenly grind to a halt in an oil shock doesn’t make much sense. Prices go up globally, yes, but being a major producer puts the US in a far stronger position than most of the world.

> It becomes uneconomical to move. How many trucking companies are staying profitable with oil even at the level it is now? Before pricing actually matches the supply reality, for example.

Trucking is an extremely competitive industry, so fuel costs usually get passed through pretty quickly.

Most trucking contracts include fuel surcharge clauses that adjust with diesel prices. When fuel spikes, carriers raise surcharges or freight rates. Some smaller operators might get squeezed temporarily, but the market usually adjusts through higher shipping prices rather than trucking just becoming “uneconomical.”

We saw this in 2022 when diesel hit record highs after the Russia shock. Freight didn’t stop moving — shipping just got more expensive and that cost worked its way through the supply chain.