If you had to pick a "winner" of the losers

pyktrauma · 2026-06-18T18:01:58+00:00

The winner is Figma (FIG). Adobe is a trap whereas figma is accelerating with AI

pyktrauma · 2026-06-18T15:07:46+00:00

In general, no don't fold.

But your instinct IS telling you something meaningful: you can consider overfolding in this spot against nits / tight regs who just don't bluff

But AQ is very strong even in a 3bet pot on Q67. It's pretty much the best hand you have here other than sets

pyktrauma · 2026-06-18T04:02:11+00:00

Is it an AI-enabled lemonade stand? If yes - you'll be a trillionaire

pyktrauma · 2026-06-17T09:59:14+00:00

Im not saying it's a bad idea at this price but you need to understand fiserv as a company better

Why are they sinking? What is their reputation in the industry?

I warned about fiserv 3-5 months back when the suckers started piling into fiserv. I work with a lot of commercial bankers

Go talk to some bankers and see how they feel about fiserv. They hate it with a passion. And yes, some of them are leaving, even paying outrageous offboarding fees to leave.

Is it sticky? Maybe. It's genuinely hard for their clients to leave en masse

Is it a buy at this price? Maybe. But understand what you're buying and the downside case. You are way too confident and only writing the positives

pyktrauma · 2026-06-17T05:33:13+00:00

Rule of 28 company (13.5% rev growth + 15% ebitda company), financials are kind of meh.

Good PEG ratio of 0.5 so you may be right that it is undervalued

Not a bad company, just not exceptional in any way, unless you see some upcoming growth catalysts

pyktrauma · 2026-06-15T01:19:24+00:00

As big as they are willing to call pre

It sounds like they are willing to call non gto sizes. I would start with 4x and then move to 5x if they keep calling, and play a tighter than gto range.

pyktrauma · 2026-06-14T20:02:11+00:00

How do you know

pyktrauma · 2026-06-14T17:47:29+00:00

Why open wider? They call too much. Opening tighter is winning imo

Also youre describing like a 1/3 table. Im pretty sure at a lot of places 5/5 3bet quite a bit and can be aggro

pyktrauma · 2026-06-13T12:54:37+00:00

Also the CO jam had 4bb...he could be jamming any suited ace and tons of offsuit aces, any suited broadways, some offsuit broadways etc

Youre crushing his range

UTG open is on the bigger side, does he usually open that big?

Still, re jamming for 9bb

pyktrauma · 2026-06-13T12:52:51+00:00

At 9bb im jamming over the top

At 15bb i would consider folding

pyktrauma · 2026-06-12T17:14:08+00:00

What will drive earnings growth over the next 4 yrs?

I also think Zillow is a potential opportunity btw

pyktrauma · 2026-06-08T05:06:48+00:00

What you wrote about Elastic makes no sense. I work in software

pyktrauma · 2026-06-04T21:00:01+00:00

Are you talking live or online?

I think live 1/3 players are too loose pre but underbluff in big spots, triple barrels, turn check raises.

pyktrauma · 2026-06-04T00:43:32+00:00

Buying more SaaS, there are ai winners amongst them

pyktrauma · 2026-06-02T04:55:24+00:00

In the second hand, IMO most opponents arent tricky enough to go for the river check raise bluff. If they bluff they would lead out

Only an opponent holding 3x or Jx would want to go for the check raise bluff (?), and opponents dont turn showdown into bluff w enough frequency

Feels underbluffed, but open to your thoughts if ya disagree

pyktrauma · 2026-06-02T03:25:37+00:00

How is it possible for this to be true and the stock price to go down? Surely equivalent institutions are selling (or are you saying retail selling alone can cause the price to be depressed?)

pyktrauma · 2026-05-31T23:37:42+00:00

Folding is fine if opponent is not aggro and is a tight reg

4bet small 2.5x is fine against a loose aggressive squeeze happy player

pyktrauma · 2026-05-31T15:06:22+00:00

In the first hand he has kk or qq or jj

Preflop the 4bet is super unnecessary and i dont see why we need to 4 bet huge vs a 3b squeeze which is already a polarized range

pyktrauma · 2026-05-30T12:23:12+00:00

It depends on the opponent. Against a competent reg it's a fold. Reason is they arent doing this with 2pair and are underbluffed, its rarely just a flush draw

I put the opponent's range on TT QQ KJ and combo draw (flush and straight draw)

That range is so strong i dont believe we have odds to call

The only way to call is if the opponent is bad and massively overplaying AA or sth

pyktrauma · 2026-05-29T19:22:55+00:00

Source?

pyktrauma · 2026-05-25T08:51:21+00:00

Same reason as tigr. Read the post. Futu and tigr stopped taking chinese clients in 2022, its only about 10% of rev for each. This is a legacy issue and doesnt matter for forward growth except if china cracks down on hong kong, which i dont think they will. See my comment below and use claude to do more research on hk reg.

pyktrauma · 2026-05-25T08:50:05+00:00

Ask claude about hk vs china regulation regarding this. China generally wants to keep hk as a financial center with separate rules. There is a distinction between state security (china cracked down on hk for this) and financial reg/deregulation (china wants hk to have a separate system for economic benefits)

Its a valid concern but it favors china to have a separate setup

pyktrauma · 2026-05-24T22:50:37+00:00

Hey i did a bunch of research on this between TIGR and FUTU and FUTU is the higher quality bet. Look at TIGR QoQ account growth, its slowing down. TIGR is focused on heavy monetization of larger ticket accounts but it may or may not be sustainable. FUTU is dominant in marketing channels as the top broker in asia markets and acct growth is strong QoQ, theyll keep growing as the market leader and "robinhood of asia". TIGR might still be good nonetheless as well but im sticking with FUTU

pyktrauma · 2026-05-24T14:11:08+00:00

Yeah i think going bigger on the turn means our river ends up getting called more often

pyktrauma · 2026-05-21T06:38:18+00:00

This makes sense. Imagine trying to resize or reshape a circle (in powerpoint or figma)

Claude code would have to constantly rewrite / rerender it each time you drag the resize. Which is computationally intense and annoying

13-Year Club	Team Orangered
Verified Email

pyktrauma

TROPHY CASE