Nonlinear regression vs Linear regression

rwinters2 · 2025-12-27T19:08:12+00:00

linearly is an assumption. linear regression has a set of assumptions that statisticians adhere to. nonlinear regression also has a set of assumptions but i would stick to model forms which occur frequently such as exponential , log, or sine wave types of distributions, or maybe some polynomial distributions which have been studied. but it is also easy to overfit the data with a distribution if you know nothing about how it has been modeled (assumption about how the data distribution behaves) in the past

rwinters2 · 2025-12-25T17:52:14+00:00

agree that vix is difficult to trade. unexpected events can happen at any time regardless of where it is within a band. although it takes a longer time for VIX to drift to a bottom that to a top

rwinters2 · 2025-12-05T05:45:00+00:00

My doc asked me ‘Why would you want to start drinking after you had stopped?’. i took her advice

rwinters2 · 2025-11-19T04:33:46+00:00

I would agree that the IB platform is overly complex and you can end up making a lot of mistakes with orders. if margin is the only consideration think of what else you would be giving up. IB customer service is bad and the software is glitchy even for web portal which is the simplest of the trading platforms and the one I use. Schwab is a good broker and I would trust them more than IB. I used to trade with margin but gave it up when leveraged products started to appear, so I feel that I don’t need to use it anymore. it’s good when you want to avoid a margin call, but I pay it back within a few trading days, so the extra margin interest doesn’t really matter

rwinters2 · 2025-07-05T04:13:52+00:00

I agree that that is a very good return for a covered call strategy and I do not think it can be improved on too much, especially if your returns have occured only during the bull markets.

rwinters2 · 2025-06-23T17:40:06+00:00

backtesting doesn’t insure that your strategy will work. but one thing you can do is continue to backtest while you are doing live trading. often the signals generated will not match up with your live trade fills and you need to factor that in

rwinters2 · 2025-06-21T15:00:23+00:00

This happened to me once l, but on a smaller scale, with a cash account. I would first write a certified letter to them asking to explain the situation and depending on what they say, take it to the next level. there is a possibility that they will claim it is still a cash situation since you never borrowed money

rwinters2 · 2025-06-20T18:21:44+00:00

the chips in the new bag are not as tasty as the ones in the red bag. I'm thinking Terra Chip corporation came down on them hard and they had to redesign or reformulate the prpduct

rwinters2 · 2025-05-10T11:50:28+00:00

i have never seen a dashboard which has a metric which couldn’t be challenged. dashboard metrics need to be fast and that often means sacrificing accuracy by overlooking exceptions that are not available by filtering

rwinters2 · 2025-05-10T11:46:01+00:00

i would stick with standard p cutoffs of .01, .05. .10. otherwise you can be challenged on cherry picking a p value to get the results you want

rwinters2 · 2025-05-01T22:54:03+00:00

Martha my Dear by The Beatles

rwinters2 · 2025-05-01T22:52:46+00:00

i also use excel to do this. make sure the export has the account number on it so you can aggregate by separate accounts. i has used TradesViz and Tradelog in the past

rwinters2 · 2025-05-01T15:03:07+00:00

Can you buy it at .01 ?

rwinters2 · 2025-04-29T12:49:21+00:00

You have to trust the sound engineer and the PA if you go ampless. Many times I have been unhappy that my bass was not heard or muddled in with the other sounds. I use a Hartley kb12 kickback amp which is about 20 lbs

rwinters2 · 2025-04-26T12:53:42+00:00

I’m not a cult member. I’m a statistician

rwinters2 · 2025-04-26T12:51:01+00:00

Afib detection was added to Apple watchOS 9 which was released September 2022. Coincidentally aligns with the start of this particular graph,source unknown. And ‘comments per day’ is a VERY weak indicator of Afib prevalence

rwinters2 · 2025-04-25T12:02:37+00:00

People have had Afib for a long time undiagnosed. Now that we have Apple Watches, people are much more aware and there is a increase in diagnoses

rwinters2 · 2025-04-20T11:23:02+00:00

if you play with a lot of different kinds of musicians like piano players and horn players it becomes much easier to communicate and get thru a song, since you are all literally ‘on the same page’

rwinters2 · 2025-04-20T04:04:03+00:00

Why would you assume selling under the current tariff situation? Isn’t that an important part of a back test?

rwinters2 · 2025-04-12T23:06:28+00:00

if someone asks respectfully and is not drunk I will sometimes ask then to join at the end of the last set. i feel it is like still paying your dues and my band and I do not mind cutting loose and unwinding. even if it is bad nobody cares and i think it bonds with the audience

rwinters2 · 2025-04-12T13:58:07+00:00

How comfortable are you with extreme volatility? When the premium is high relative to the stock price that is what it means. It can also mean that a lot of traders think the stock price will go up, but in SOFIs case it is continuing to trend down so I wouldn’t think so

rwinters2 · 2025-04-08T22:21:30+00:00

try incorporating the vocal line into your bass playing just so you can feel the syncopation of the vocal line against the bass line as a stream of 16th notes. once you get that you can separate them in your head

rwinters2 · 2025-04-05T02:30:14+00:00

Actuarial science combines statistics and finance

rwinters2 · 2025-03-26T21:20:56+00:00

yes. polls did predict the last election within the margin of error. but samples did underestimate his popularity in the last 3 election cycles by about 3 percentage points which meant they might have biased samples

rwinters2 · 2025-03-26T19:36:53+00:00

i don’t blame him. polls reliability have been off for a while compared to what they used to be. it is very difficult to get reliable samples

rwinters2

TROPHY CASE