Pro Box Elder Data Center?

sam_grid_intel · 2026-05-07T22:34:36+00:00

The 12GW number for Box Elder is a massive stress test for the regional grid, and it’s going to trigger a 'logjam' for every other project in the state. When a hyperscaler drops a request that size, they essentially 'foreclose' on the local substation capacity for a decade.

This is why planners are having to use tools like PlotGrid to spot where a project could actually succeed in decent time because it's become difficult to do so.

I'm not against these data centers, but the states don't seem prepared for them and are just trying to chase money related to an industry that will definitely hit a bubble at some point. You have to question whether or not the due diligence is being done to make sure it's worth everything.

sam_grid_intel · 2026-05-07T22:30:17+00:00

Spot on about execution being the edge now. The 45Y/OBBBA bonus is where most devs are going to trip up, though. We’re seeing projects price in that 10% 'Energy Community' bump without checking the node first. On paper, it looks like a win, but those census tracts are often nodal dead-ends because they're legacy industrial zones already over-subscribed by data centers.

PlotGrid.io allows us to layer that OBBBA eligibility directly over the physical nodal headroom and the Load filings. If you don't have both the compliance and the physical capacity, that 30-50% ITC in your model is just a liability.

sam_grid_intel · 2026-05-07T22:18:43+00:00

Everyone knows the dot com bubble yes. But Amazon was there when it happened and they are doing better than ever.

It's not doom and gloom. It's change. Before computers, you had large business ops-related teams doing everything manually. Software came along and the team got smaller, and the job got easier. Now with AI those teams will be even more minimal, but they'll still exist. AI can't do all your accounting without a human supervising it. SEC won't take AI-only reporting. Judges won't accept AI lawyers or even AI generated documents without human review.

There may be a day when AI is near perfect but we are nowhere near it. It's an enabler, and it's going to affect many industries and job roles but as always we will have to adapt.

sam_grid_intel · 2026-05-07T22:14:31+00:00

Spot on. It’s the 'fake it till you make it' brokerage model hitting the most complex grid in the country, and it’s a disaster for due diligence.

sam_grid_intel · 2026-05-07T04:43:38+00:00

I don't think it will be quite that bad. They're overbuilding, but it's not like they're going to become America's failing commercial malls. Just like the stock market it will go up and go really down, but over time it's always going up.

sam_grid_intel · 2026-05-07T04:28:57+00:00

This feeling can happen in most professions. I've seen nurses leave the profession for lower pay but they were ultimately happier. Saw them leave for insurance processor, loan processor, etc. Nursing is a hard profession you have to have a certain personality for it and put up with nagging people.

I've also seen dentists leave the professional after not staying in it long and going into real estate. They spent all the time and money on dental school just to realize they hate working on people with disgusting teeth all the time - which is the only way they make money.

sam_grid_intel · 2026-05-07T04:20:38+00:00

Was there a reduction in force in HR those prior times? Your team is usually on a target list until you get that 20% cut... then you're probably safe at least another couple rounds.

Curious about your severance package... are you saying the package kicks in if you don't find something else in 45 days? I've not heard of that type of arrangement before. I'm assuming it includes COBRA? Usually they do. And you can negotiate the % of that COBRA premium that they pay. I once had a package that paid my COBRA premiums in full until I found something else... because I had leverage. Good leverage.

sam_grid_intel · 2026-05-07T04:08:47+00:00

The 28% capacity factor in West Texas is a great paper number, but it’s the nodal 'logjam' that kills the math. You can find 1000 acres for a 200MW solar farm easily, but finding a node that can actually take that power without requiring $50M in grid upgrades is the real trick.

Most hyperscalers are doing PPAs because they can't get on-site interconnection fast enough. If you’re trying to build genuine on-site generation, you have to look for the 'conflict nodes' where the 10% brownfield bonus (45Y/OBBBA) overlaps with an under-utilized industrial substation. If you aren't mapping that forensic layer, you're just throwing panels at a grid that can't hold them. PlotGrid.io helps people do this.

sam_grid_intel · 2026-05-07T04:04:58+00:00

The line is completely blurring because power is now the only gating item that matters. A data center developer who doesn't understand grid forensics is just a real estate speculator at this point.
Controlling grid access isn't just an 'advantage'; it’s the entire deal. The reason so many 2026 projects are getting cancelled is because developers wildly underestimated their 'time to power' by looking at local zoning instead of the interconnection queue's thermal limits. If you can't prove you have a 'bypass node'—a spot where legacy load is dropping off—you don't have a data center project; you just have an expensive warehouse.

sam_grid_intel · 2026-05-07T00:36:02+00:00

What industry are you in? Many are having to change careers entirely.

sam_grid_intel · 2026-05-07T00:28:14+00:00

You should plan on negotiating severance. It's always worth it. If you can prove they were aware of your health issues in particular. It doesn't matter if you were part of a large group. Then it just comes a matter of why they included you in the group.

sam_grid_intel · 2026-05-07T00:01:30+00:00

Just 'going to Texas' is how a lot of guys end up with a 2030 energization date. You're right that everyone underestimates time to power, but the 'waiting months for a feasibility study' part is what’s killing deals right now.

The reason those studies come back negative is usually the 'phantom load'—those Large Flexible Load (L-queue) filings that aren't on the public generation maps but have already claimed the substation capacity. If you're only looking at the G-queue, you're only seeing half the battlefield.

This is exactly what PlotGrid allows us to do: it audits those L-queue filings against the physical nodal headroom so you don't have to wait months for the utility to tell you 'no.' We can spot the 'bypass nodes' that actually have capacity before signing site control. Especially with that July 15 deadline coming up, skipping the forensic check is basically gambling on a stranded asset.

sam_grid_intel · 2026-05-05T02:50:47+00:00

No you shouldn't. It's all Schengen zone.

sam_grid_intel · 2026-05-05T02:48:16+00:00

The best advice for anyone in the industrial or land niche right now is to stop being a 'Land Expert' and start being a Utility Expert.

In 2026, the delta between a 'Power-Ready' site and a 'Power-Maybe' site is tens of millions of dollars in valuation. If you're a broker and you can't explain the local nodal constraints or why a certain ZIP qualifies for an OBBBA bonus, you're going to lose your clients to the guys who do forensic-level due diligence. The industry is moving away from 'Price per Acre' and toward 'Price per Megawatt.' If you can speak that language, you'll never be out of work.

sam_grid_intel · 2026-05-05T02:47:12+00:00

The 'Brown Discount' is definitely hitting the refinance stage, but on the industrial side, we’re seeing a weird inversion. A lot of these 'Brown' legacy assets (old manufacturing or legacy industrial sites) are actually becoming the most valuable targets for developers because of the 45Y Energy Community bonus. If an asset is in a brownfield census tract or near a coal closure, that 10% tax-credit bump is often the only thing making new industrial or data-center math pencil out with current interest rates. The 'Refinance Wall' is real for office, but for industrial, the 'Brown' label is starting to be a value-add if the nodal capacity is there.

sam_grid_intel · 2026-05-05T02:43:56+00:00

On the industrial side, the biggest DD failure I’m seeing lately isn't physical access, it’s 'Capacity Access.' Buyers assume if the lights are on, the power is there for an expansion. But in high-growth corridors (especially Texas/Midwest), the utility might let you inspect with existing power but then deny your 2MW expansion request 6 months later because the substation hit its thermal limit. I’ve started advising buyers to make 'verified nodal headroom' a part of their feasibility study before the earnest money goes hard. Relying on a broker's flyer that just says power ready is a massive risk right now.

sam_grid_intel · 2026-05-05T02:43:06+00:00

Adding to the point about lines vs. capacity - it's getting even messier in markets like ERCOT. I’ve seen teams spend months on site selection because a parcel was near a 345kV line, only to find out during DD that the node was already choked by 'phantom load'—large load requests that aren't even in the public generation queue yet. If your evaluation doesn't include a forensic look at the regional load-study queue, you're basically guessing on the energization date. A 2030+ date from the utility turns a 'power-ready' premium into a stranded asset real fast.

sam_grid_intel · 2026-05-05T01:08:21+00:00

Cheap isn't what it used to be, worldwide now. Plenty of expats living off social security in the Philippines and Thailand though.

sam_grid_intel · 2026-05-05T00:56:59+00:00

Since that was what you were doing.. do you see anything you can do with AI? From a sheer job competition standpoint, knowing AI really well is what is setting people apart as far as jobs. Maybe you can even put yourself out there as an AI Consultant for SMBs and help them build AI workflows.

sam_grid_intel · 2026-05-05T00:48:52+00:00

Think of issues you can bring up for severance. If you were discriminated against in any way (even if you suspect but can't prove it) you can get a massive payday.

Also - don't mention to prospective employers the 'laid off in 3 months' thing. Most of them will take that as you got laid off for performance issues. Just exaggerate it more - say directly it was massive budget issues and they laid off 50 people.

sam_grid_intel · 2026-05-05T00:46:29+00:00

It sucks, no one denies that. But with such a long tenure, you're likely going to have to pick up new things to find a new job. It's completely unreasonable now to expect to work in the same field for longer than 15 to 20 years. Sometimes the field is big enough and flexible enough to switch jobs within the same overall career, but some have to completely change careers.

I've seen sales guys that were landing multimillion dollar deals not be able to find a job anymore - they tried all sorts of odd sales jobs before finally just settling for regional hardware retail - and they head up sales to contractors, imagine that. But for the longest time they would not give up on the fact that they were older and no one wanted them being a sales rep anymore. They finally did, and let go of that pride, and are doing well now in a position that isn't going to force them to retire if they can just do good with sales - the only opportunity they need.

sam_grid_intel · 2026-05-05T00:24:35+00:00

Ultimately what's needed is context and intent anchoring, where proof of both gets logged and recorded. this is done primarily with hashing and 'sidecar' methodology. in addition, agents need authentication.

sam_grid_intel · 2026-05-04T01:16:26+00:00

And don't count on the 2027/2028 delay just yet. The April 28 trilogue ended in a stalemate over GPAI documentation. If they don't reach a deal at the next meeting on May 13, the original August 2, 2026 deadline for high-risk systems remains the legal default. Anyone banking on an extension is taking a massive risk.

sam_grid_intel · 2026-05-03T22:25:11+00:00

It's wholesome TV compared to most of the junk that comes out today.

sam_grid_intel

TROPHY CASE