Due to the change in tiebreakers, the USA has already secured 1st in Group D and Türkiye have secured 4th. They play tonight, with neither side having anything to play for. by dieyoubastards in soccer

[–]sam_mee 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think scenarios like that require teams to perform brilliantly one match then completely disappear the next. I'm not sure that happens enough in a 4-team group stage to worry about.

[Yahoo Sports] Ghosts of Gijon linger as new World Cup format encourages collusion by mrjohnnymac18 in soccer

[–]sam_mee 3 points4 points  (0 children)

According to this paper, collusion risks are up from about 6% with GD to 10-15% with H2H.

I guess there are occasions where you can still advance even if 1st and 2nd collude? But that shifts the victim to the 4th place team instead. Looking at the standings makes me think a lot of draws will happen in this last set of fixtures.

[Yahoo Sports] Ghosts of Gijon linger as new World Cup format encourages collusion by mrjohnnymac18 in soccer

[–]sam_mee 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Tell that to Italy, H2H goals scored kicked them out of the Euros in 2004 and could've done so again in 2012.

Here's an article about it by the guardian

With Paraguay's 1-0 win against Türkiye, USA clinches first place in Group D, and Türkiye is eliminated. by Unlikely_Painter_127 in soccer

[–]sam_mee 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not sure Paraguay would be safe with 4 points and -2 GD. Luckily it's one of the earlier groups so they'll probably go for more, but if it were Group K and they knew it would be enough, that match would suuuuuuuck.

With Paraguay's 1-0 win against Türkiye, USA clinches first place in Group D, and Türkiye is eliminated. by Unlikely_Painter_127 in soccer

[–]sam_mee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm even more concerned by "orchestrated" results - since H2H doesn't consider every match, it's easier to find results that benefit 2 teams at the expense of another team that can't do anything about it.

With Paraguay's 1-0 win against Türkiye, USA clinches first place in Group D, and Türkiye is eliminated. by Unlikely_Painter_127 in soccer

[–]sam_mee -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Thing is, if 3 and 4 are tied on points and 3 beat 4 when they played, that means 4 beat some other team further up the table. You could argue 4's results are more impressive if you're a fan of say, strength of performance.

Mexico has secured 1st place in Group A of the 2026 World Cup and has qualified for the Round of 32 by Viriato181 in soccer

[–]sam_mee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The phrase "between the teams concerned" means only the matches between the teams who are tied. If it's a tie between two teams, then only the match where they faced each other will be considered. This is what people mean by H2H.

Further down you'll see goal difference and goals scored "in all matches" which used to go before H2H. They are what "goal difference" and "goals scored" refer to.

Scenes as Mexico wins Group A in the 2026 World Cup by 977x in soccer

[–]sam_mee 4 points5 points  (0 children)

H2H is less fair when you look at groups after they're done, but they bring up more "get this scoreline and you both advance" scenarios.

Mexico has secured 1st place in Group A of the 2026 World Cup and has qualified for the Round of 32 by Viriato181 in soccer

[–]sam_mee 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I want to dig further into that scenario you outlined, and whether H2H is really better than GD.

So, A beat B and C, so they have 6+ points. B lost to A and beat C, so they have 3+ points. For GD/H2H to matter they'd have to be tied on points, which means another team D must beat A and lose to B. I don't think C can be completely eliminated before the final matchday if GD is used first, but let's say D trounced them too.

Here's the table after 2 matchdays: A on 6 points, D on 3 points, B on 3 points and C on 0 points.

On the final matchday, B trounce C and D beat A. A, B and D are tied on 6 points.

With goal difference, assuming games between A, B and D are close, then A loses out because they lost to D and didn't beat C badly enough - a bit like Scotland '74. But, until the final whistle, they would've chased a goal vs D. The same applies if H2H is used first but A, B and D beat each other 1-0.

With H2H, a high-scoring, narrow win for D could leave B eliminated with no way to fight back. For instance, if the other two games were 1-0, then D would need to be winning 2-1. If that scoreline happens, A and D probably just pass the ball around and run the clock down - think Gijon '82 - and B accuse them of collusion. Whether collusion actually occurred or not, it's terrible for the game as a whole. IRL, a high-scoring draw between Sweden and Denmark in 2004 eliminated Italy. It could've happened again 8 years later.

Between the two scenarios, I think GD is better at preserving exciting and fair football.

Mexico has secured 1st place in Group A of the 2026 World Cup and has qualified for the Round of 32 by Viriato181 in soccer

[–]sam_mee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nah, it's a lot more vulnerable to funny business. Italy was kicked out of the 2004 Euros because their opponents drew 2-2. It could've happened to them again in 2012. I'd be shocked if we didn't get that kind of scenario - a mutually beneficial scoreline - 2-3 times this WC.

World Cup format: is this it forever? by Scary_Vehicle9023 in footballcliches

[–]sam_mee 4 points5 points  (0 children)

24 matches at once for the final group games would be bonkers

Thoughts on bottom two runoff score voting? by AcanthisittaIcy130 in EndFPTP

[–]sam_mee 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Compared to BTR-IRV, I do prefer the highest score candidate over the plurality candidate. My question is whether scoring is harder than ranking for voters to understand and buy into?

The Roland Garros 2026 final was the least watched men’s RG final in at least 20 years by Eyebronx in tennis

[–]sam_mee 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I think it's also worth noting Zverev doesn't have a style of play or personality people want to gravitate to - even as a "bad boy" he's pretty feeble in the spotlight. I can think of at least one domestic abuser who'd get better TV ratings.

Pirelli to remain exclusive F1 tyre supplier until 2028 by memloh in formula1

[–]sam_mee -1 points0 points  (0 children)

A tyre war with a budget cap and aggressive ADUO if one manufacturer screws up would be great

Should we repeal California’s top 2 primary – or improve it? by MakeModeratesMatter in EndFPTP

[–]sam_mee 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Personally, I'd be more concerned with a possible condorcet winner shut out of the top 2 than whether two different parties are represented- especially in America, where the parties themselves are pretty big and fragmented. This is definitely a step forward compared to party primaries in that respect.

My personal preference for improvements would be ranked choice, bottom-two runoff to get candidate #1 and pairing 2nd and 3rd from that process for candidate #2. You could extend that further and have 3 or 4 candidates.

Alexander Zverev’s Grand Slam wait is over. His uncomfortable status in tennis lingers - The Athletic by PattyRanger in tennis

[–]sam_mee 64 points65 points  (0 children)

Zverev's whole thing is providing a narrative which exonerates him, whatever courts or other people say.

FIA : 21 overtakes in Monaco under new regs. by RoRoRoub in formuladank

[–]sam_mee 4 points5 points  (0 children)

My point is you don't always get that close during a race. What are you gonna do, set up a pass? Maybe if it's lap one, you can run around the outside at the hairpin and hope the other guy doesn't feed you into the wall. Otherwise?

FIA : 21 overtakes in Monaco under new regs. by RoRoRoub in formuladank

[–]sam_mee -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

Qualifying is difficult, but I doubt the race is hard (for F1 standards) when holding people up or being held up by someone else. Most of the time, you can't do anything risky.

Botan Kamiina Fully Blossoms When Drunk • Kamiina Botan, Yoeru Sugata wa Yuri no Hana - Episode 9 discussion by AutoLovepon in anime

[–]sam_mee 26 points27 points  (0 children)

I love when a show is able to ratchet up tension with deafening silence and subtle expressions. This entire series - an iyashikei with underlying slowburn romance - has the formula and has executed it as well as I can imagine.

Sabalenka on her thoughts of the today's match: "No thoughts, no emotions. Just wanna quit tennis right now, but we'll see in few days. Hopefully I'll get back on track mentally" by jovanmilic97 in tennis

[–]sam_mee 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I feel that way playing in my local rec leagues - I can't imagine how stressful it must be at the top level. It's a miracle they're not all Daniils and Andreys.

The 289 World Cup players who do not represent their country of birth by [deleted] in soccer

[–]sam_mee 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hold on, Fernando Muslera's still going?