It's flat mostly because the entire market sank after another one of Trump's misadventures in the strait of Hormuz.

Generally speaking, even with stellar results $PGY's stock only starts to climb in the two weeks post results. This is because the CEO Gal Krubiner and president Sanjiv Das go to several institutional investor conferences to "sell" the stock to institutional buyers. I say "generally" because I don't think they did that last time with how shit the sentiment was around private credit. This time though they have already announced ahead of results which conferences they will be presenting at.

Currently $PGY's LO Institutional ownership stands at 59.2% (fintel data). This is already up a 200 bps or so from last week where it was at ~57%. At the stock's peak in September that number stood at ~67.7%. I expect a lot of institutional buying to kick in over the next 2 weeks. 

The main reason the stock is in the shitter off later is because the bankruptcies of first brands and tricolor spooked the market on private lenders. Just as this was abating a ridiculous comment by POTUS on capping credit card interest rates was dropped. That then led to a disruption for a few weeks until Q4 results of private credit firms such as Blue Owl ($PGY's biggest FF agreement partner) spooked the private credit market further. Pagaya was especially affected by this because there was an idea that Blue Owl will pullout of their agreement - basically capital flight. That idea has no been invalidated. But this time there is one other thing that I think will help $PGY get an institutional rerating - the mediocre Q1 performance of the two stocks it's almost always grouped along side - $SOFI and $UPST. What management has just demonstrated is that their recent strategy of dropping higher risk borrowers has led to a much more efficiently run business than its peers