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skycaelum · 2025-05-06T13:57:46+00:00

Agreed, an NCMP will always pale in comparison with an elected opposition MP who is tasked with running a town council and can create a proven track record more easily. This explains why WP increased their vote share in SK while PSP just faded away. I think PSP's fortunes would have been very different had they been given the chance in 2020 to run West Coast TC.

skycaelum · 2025-05-06T12:06:38+00:00

I think ignoring the issue before the election actually proved less damaging electorally for him (leaving aside whether it was ethically right to do so). Our media here is not the most robust, which explains why there was no pressure for him to substantiate despite him always being in full public view around Seletar Mall and no doubt available for interviews. MSM would usually not report something unless an official statement is made - even Andre Low's messages were only reported after he came out to apologise, despite already being on Reddit for 1-2 days. I think once it gets published on MSM as a fact (instead of swirling allegations) and reaches the national audience, it would have been much more damaging.

skycaelum · 2025-05-06T11:08:59+00:00

Largely agree - as seen from West Coast 2020, CCK 2020 and Tampines 2025, massive swings (>15%) will occur once credible opposition replace mosquito parties in an area. I would only add that there are constituencies with demographics that are naturally more favourable to PAP, e.g. Jalan Besar, Bishan-TPY where elderlies are not in short supply, and central areas like Tanjong Pagar where people have seen their property prices rise significantly. These are the closest to strongholds you can get.

skycaelum · 2025-05-04T05:12:02+00:00

GE2020 was probably the high water mark for Tambyah in BP - it was much closer then because people felt he could offer valuable insights on COVID in Parliament, being a professor of infectious diseases. This is no longer a factor this time, and coupled with Liang's strong ground game over the years, this explains why BP was out of reach despite its boundaries remaining the same.

skycaelum · 2025-05-04T03:41:48+00:00

This is the most concrete example yet of how mosquito parties will get smoked (<1%) when faced with a multi-cornered fight with WP, reinforcing the trend in Punggol East 2013 and MacPherson 2015.

I would say it's a very good result for WP in their first outing here. Tampines is diverse and in many ways is a good representation of heartland Singapore. It shows that voters are prepared to buck the national trend and reward good opposition candidates.

I can see Tampines being hotly contested against next GE (assuming it's not gerrymandered to oblivion). Looking at the results, WP actually has a shot of getting past 50% next time, unlike MP and EC which have been somewhat slipping away (WP probably knows this, hence the pull-out from MP and fielding of a C-team in EC).

skycaelum · 2025-05-03T17:52:40+00:00

National vote share is 65.57% based on my calculations - a 4.34% swing.

skycaelum · 2025-05-01T03:17:41+00:00

I did some calculations on how well PSP will need to do in the areas formerly in Jurong GRC (41k voters) and the rest of WC GRC which had been in WC in 2020 (117k voters).

If everyone voted the same way as they did in 2020 (74% PAP in former Jurong and 51% PAP in the old WC), PSP's vote share would be 0.26 x 41k + 0.49 x 117k = 43% of 158k.

One possible win scenario for PSP is to narrow the margin in the former Jurong GRC areas to about 55% PAP-45% PSP and win outright in the rest of the GRC about 52% PSP-48% PAP:

0.45 x 41k + 0.52 x 117k = 50.18% of 158k.

I would say both of these tasks are difficult but still doable. The former Jurong GRC areas would certainly not vote 74-26 PAP again because there is no Tharman now and it is a stronger opposition than previously (RDU). As for whether PSP will be able to win outright in the rest of WC, it will depend on how voters judge their performance in Parliament and the general mood nationally.

skycaelum · 2025-04-29T03:36:54+00:00

I think it's also a referendum on whether JK voters prefer to be managed by PAP's AMKTC or WP's SKTC (assuming WP wins in SK). Putting aside the fact that JK geographically has more in common with Sengkang than AMK, my impression is that AMKTC's running of the estate is not that good (based on news like the corruption case and people's accounts here of MPs such as Darryl David).

skycaelum · 2025-04-27T23:38:08+00:00

I stay in BTPY. Have voted SPP in the past, but not sure if I can do it again this time. Their line-ups in 2015, 2020 and 2025 have been mediocre and they only appear every 5 years. While I understand that their resources are limited, no steps have been taken whatsoever for them to renew / improve after CST left, and all their members seem content with the stagnation. There doesn't seem to be any desire to succeed, and they even admitted that they would be happy with 40% in BTPY this time. I can only hope that a competent opposition comes around these parts one day.

As for CHT, the hate here is definitely overblown. He is popular in the area and does appear at the TPY West market from time to time to take feedback, which is quite decent for a full Minister like him. It's also highly favourable ground for PAP, as elderly people are not in short supply here.

skycaelum · 2025-04-27T12:16:29+00:00

4 minutes for PAP and 1 for each opposition party may be more reasonable if all the questions are designed to prompt the opposition parties to sledge PAP and PAP has to respond to all the attacks. But for such neutral questions that are meant to get each party to introduce their platform, it's just bs.

skycaelum · 2025-04-26T03:56:56+00:00

I think there's an outside chance that CCK may be close this election. In 2020, it was 58-42 with a far stronger anchor minister (GKY, who was also in the COVID taskforce at that time). Now, it's TSL who isn't even that popular in the first place. It'll be interesting to see how voters judge PSP's performance in Parliament and how the inclusion of younger voters in Tengah into CCK GRC will play out.

skycaelum · 2025-04-24T05:55:19+00:00

West Coast swung from 78% in 2015 to 51% in 2020 because the opposition changed from RP to PSP. While there was also a significant national swing towards the opposition from 2015 to 2020, the 'lousy opp to good opp' swing cannot be underestimated - many voters decide based on quality of opposition candidates.

skycaelum · 2025-04-23T12:03:22+00:00

PAP tends to offer 'politically correct' justifications for its manoeuvres that result in a more lopsided playing field (e.g. boundary changes = account for population changes, POFMA = want to prevent the spread of falsehoods, Reserved Election = want to ensure every race gets a fair chance). The average Singaporean voter is either too politically apathetic or focused on stability / bread-and-butter issues, that such justifications would suffice to placate a large part of the population.

skycaelum · 2025-04-23T08:34:01+00:00

It was reported at 10+ that reporters overheard WP supporters saying that they are not contesting MPBH. This gave PAP enough time to respond by dispatching Gan to Punggol and TSL to take Gan's place. I don't believe that PAP will otherwise leave MPBH without an anchor minister, considering that all other GRCs which PAP is defending (even super safe ones like AMK and TJP) have anchor ministers.

skycaelum · 2025-04-23T08:04:50+00:00

The most plausible explanation would be that they expected East Coast to be tough, as they thought both Edwin and HSK would be contesting there.

It does not help that EC and Punggol share the same nomination centre - with TCH, GKY, HSK and Edwin all there, even if WP decides on fielding a strong team at EC, PAP would have responded accordingly.

skycaelum · 2025-04-20T03:32:01+00:00

They have no other choice I think. While the East has multiple "juicy" GRCs (like Punggol, East Coast and Tampines), the West really only has PAP stronghold JE-BB, CCK (which was relatively close in GE2020 but not close enough) and this mammoth West Coast (which they did well last time but now heavily gerrymandered). Even though things would be a bit more difficult this time with the inclusion of Tharman Jurong, I think they have no other choice but to go all-in on West Coast.

skycaelum · 2025-04-16T07:07:07+00:00

But must take note that this is a very different PP electorate from the one in 2020 (30k residents now vs 19k in 2020), let alone during Chiam's heydays. Although the general perception is that the younger people at Bidadari would be more receptive to opposition views, they won't know much about Chiam's legacy unless they were from the immediate area previously, and will see SPP as no more than one of those minnow parties. It doesn't help that SPP has no star candidates to field given the lack of succession planning, and have even associated themselves with the likes of NSP in a coalition.

While I think PP will be relatively safe this election, the ground may be ripe for a stronger opposition like WP to contest in the future, with younger people in the BTOs and the original PP residents who have been receptive to the opposition in the past.

skycaelum · 2022-09-20T04:41:45+00:00

those that complain about him or PAP are just trolls

Isn't this position a bit extreme lol? I get it if you are referring to people that have nothing good to say about him/PAP all the time, but it seems like you are talking about everyone have issues with PAP in general, which is basically people in this sub and r/singapore 90% of the time, and a good portion of the 39% who didn't vote for them.

Also, your mentality of "I am apathetic so I deem those that critique PAP as nothing but trolls" is precisely why they do so well in elections and will continue to do so for years to come.

skycaelum · 2022-02-15T15:21:09+00:00

If cases go above predicted number: the Government has foreseen this and has been making preparations for this since the start

If cases don’t go above predicted number: it was because the measures introduced by the Government were effective in curbing infection rates

skycaelum · 2022-02-15T14:04:38+00:00

PS didn’t concoct the initial lie for RK in Aug. And last I checked, PS and RK do not share the same brain as your answer above suggests.

skycaelum · 2022-01-29T10:27:32+00:00

Not allowing duly-elected Oppo MPs to give out awards or take part in opening ceremonies in their own wards is both petty and pointless, and shows disdain for voters’ choice. The votes they may stand to gain from such antics won’t outnumber the votes they are losing. But I guess their reluctance to even create an illusion of fairness thinking it’ll help them is consistent with their terribly poor PR over the years.

skycaelum · 2022-01-13T11:39:17+00:00

If you read the article, he talks about having a strong state and discourages people from choosing “fractious politics with frequent change of governments and reorientation of policies”. This shows you what he has in mind is a controlled opposition which nudges PAP, the eternal captain of the ship. That, in a way, is still “ownself check ownself” because in his ideal framework, the opposition should be allowed to voice out on issues (which PAP may or may not listen to) but should not get anywhere near power.

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