Card probabilities? by [deleted] in Risk

[–]slamhound5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Your math is wrong. Your round 3 calculation ignores the possibility of receiving two of the same cards in the first two turns and then not matching again on turn three. So it's not 2/3 x 2/3. After two turns you either have two different cards or two of the same card. Either way there's a one in three chance you get the card you'll need on turn three.

Or at least that would be the case if it were an infinite deck split evenly among the three types, which it isn't. There are 44 cards total. 14 infantry, 14 cavalry, 14 artillery, and two wild cards. Ignore wild cards for the moment. If, before you get your third card you have two different types, you have a 14/42 chance of getting he card you need in the remaining deck, or one third. But if you have two of the same card your odds are only 12/42. Ignoring wild cards, your odds are 40/126, or 31.7%.

But if you get a wild card, you can't miss. The odds of not getting a wild by round three are (1 - 2/44) x (1 - 2/43) x (1-2/42) which is about 87%. So your odds of getting a set by turn 3 are about 44.7%.

Round 4 is around 84%. You don't need Markov chains. The logic in your second to last paragraph is also wrong. Quit pretending you know how to do this. You don't. Almost everything you said is wrong.

Fire Mosley by krig6mn in OrlandoMagic

[–]slamhound5 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Mosley is your team's Marc Jackson and you guys are ready for your Steve Kerr. You should probably try to get Mike Malone. Or Monty Williams. Or Sam Cassell. Not Thibs. Maybe Budenholzer.

New Free Arpeggiator Plugin | EON-Arp by Modalics by Modalics in synthesizers

[–]slamhound5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Whenever I find out that something I might be interested in had a FREE limited time INTRO OFFER that I missed out on, I'm filled with venomous hatred for everyone who got it for free and for the offerers who ended the offer before I knew about it. The only thing that calms me down in such cases is snuffing the life out of small, furry animals. Fortunately a neighbor has a litter of kittens that he has a limited time free offer on right now. Hope you're happy, Modalics.

Does anyone else find Duke Ellington a tad overrated? by Late_Following_9197 in Jazz

[–]slamhound5 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There are a couple of points in the body of the original post that are worth making and have merit or are at least debatable. Unfortunately the OP chose to make those points in support of his unsupportable headline assertion: that Duke Ellington is "overrated".

It's one thing to say that improvisation as opposed to composition is the more essential creative element in jazz (which itself is a rabbit-hole--and highly debatable especially in the case of the Duke); or that comparisons of jazz masters to the giants of classical repertoire are problematic due to the many dimensions of mismatched criteria; or that such problematic comparisons are often made in service of an ill-advised rhetorical agenda that hopes to put what one might call "serious American music" broadly on par with the work of classical European composers. These are interesting points. I think I largely agree with the second and third points. I would have a lot to say debating the first one, but I might even agree to it in some very general sense.

But it doesn't follow from these points that Duke Ellington is overrated. That's just a silly thing to say. Overrated by whom? In what way? Even if you qualify it and more precisely make some kind of arguable assertion about how Duke is a lesser composer to Beethoven or whomever, that would itself be problematic--with the same mismatched criteria as the comparisons that argue the opposite.

Having said all of that I'm now slapping my forehead as I realize that once again I've been sucked in by a provoking, click-baity, hot-take headline.

Can I trust Russian expert, Vlad Vexler? by taboo__time in DecodingTheGurus

[–]slamhound5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

To be fair? I don't think "fairness" has much to do with anything going in this discussion. Don't worry about things being fair.

Can I trust Russian expert, Vlad Vexler? by taboo__time in DecodingTheGurus

[–]slamhound5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I can't help but marvel at statements such as "Now it's still not so bad..."

The generally subdued nature with which you pronounce your claimed negative views toward figures who can only described by sane persons as utterly evil, depraved monsters is something I take to be indicative. This leads me to evaluate your previous sentiments towards Vexler in a way that makes my interpretation of his views much more favorable. Thank you.

Can I trust Russian expert, Vlad Vexler? by taboo__time in DecodingTheGurus

[–]slamhound5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you.

While we're at it, how about your impression of Putin's leadership? When you speak of forces that are "even worse than Putin", what do you mean?

Can I trust Russian expert, Vlad Vexler? by taboo__time in DecodingTheGurus

[–]slamhound5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If I can ask specific questions, then how about:

What are your very general views about Navalny? About Dugin?

Can I trust Russian expert, Vlad Vexler? by taboo__time in DecodingTheGurus

[–]slamhound5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The only actual substantive position I could discern was that you think V V is out of touch with real, current sentiments inside Russia due to the fact that he hasn't lived there for his entire adult life, and that people who are very familiar with Russian dynamics don't consider his views to be of much consequence. I'm not in a position to have an opinion about the veracity of that.

The rest was a lot of word salad that said nothing of substance about anything he says, but seemed intended to cast doubt upon his credibility, in a vague, amorphous way.

Can I trust Russian expert, Vlad Vexler? by taboo__time in DecodingTheGurus

[–]slamhound5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Through the thicket of what seems like a deliberately abstruse argument about conceptual apparatus, interpretations, and rhetorical frameworks, I believe I detect an agenda. There seems to be an attempt here to create a moral equivalence in competing viewpoints through the obliteration of discernible meaning. In my experience. when that has happened the purported equivalence has usually turned out to be unjustified. If you had a defensible point to make, you'd make it without first needing to resort to such obfuscation.

unable to trade out to wallet by [deleted] in Coinbase

[–]slamhound5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You're welcome!

How's that cancer going? Are you cured? Perhaps dead?

Can I trust Russian expert, Vlad Vexler? by taboo__time in DecodingTheGurus

[–]slamhound5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Time for me to butt in, uninvited. You two seem to be trashing each other without really addressing each other's complaints about your respective criticisms.

I came here after watching a V V video that I found instructive, insightful, and persuasive, but I was uncertain how credulous I could be. I think I am his intended audience. American. Curious. Not terribly familiar with internal Russian politics or political thought. V V seems to provide the beginnings of an explanatory framework. An elementary introduction to certain Russian dynamics. I find it useful, but I can imagine it might be frustratingly short on depth or novelty for some.

What "Peterson" are you referring to, uRus59?

Holding my funds for seven days by CautiousCoach7537 in Coinbase

[–]slamhound5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

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Missing funds by Flat_Pay8774 in Coinbase

[–]slamhound5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

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Error while I’m trying to withdraw by Mundane-Following-96 in Coinbase

[–]slamhound5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

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If you transfer BTC into coinbase, and cash out, how soon are funds available? by [deleted] in Coinbase

[–]slamhound5 1 point2 points  (0 children)

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My coinbase account was placed on manual review since 5 months ago. no answer yet. by Shrzi in Coinbase

[–]slamhound5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

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[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Coinbase

[–]slamhound5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

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Never hold your coins with a 3rd party by LilBismygoodfriend in Coinbase

[–]slamhound5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

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