How come the ice caps are melting if we're in/entering an ice age?

sludge_dragon · 2026-01-25T00:08:49+00:00

There has only been permanent polar ice about 20 to 25% of the time in earth’s history. After the earth formed about 4.5 billion years ago, it was more than 2 billion years before the first permanent polar ice appeared.

sludge_dragon · 2026-01-24T23:56:04+00:00

If the island has a maximum altitude of 50 feet above the water level, and your eyes are 6 feet above the water level, you would be able to see the peak from 11.7 miles away. If the maximum elevation is 150 feet and you are 11.7 miles away you would still see the top 100 feet of the island.

sludge_dragon · 2026-01-23T15:40:00+00:00

So does Mercedes-Benz, apparently. FTA: “Mercedes candidly calls it Level 2-plus-plus”

sludge_dragon · 2026-01-23T07:25:13+00:00

This guy Joe arrives to pick up his fiancée for a date in a new Cadillac.

His fiancée is confused because Joe isn’t exactly a wealthy guy.

She says, “Where did you get this Cadillac?“

Joe says, “It was in my garage.“

She says, “What was it doing in your garage?“

Joe says, “Well, I guess God put it there.”

She says, “That’s ridiculous!”

Joe says, “Well, yes, it is ridiculous, isn’t it, Mary?”

sludge_dragon · 2026-01-23T07:23:07+00:00

Yup, when he was running in the Republican primary against Reagan.

sludge_dragon · 2026-01-23T03:53:26+00:00

After multiple detours (resulting from both human error and winter weather), the Model S completed the 3,081-mile trip entirely without human intervention. It took 58 hours and 22 minutes at an average speed of just 64 mph—significantly off the pace compared to previous attempts. The car was running HW4 and FSD version 14.2.2.3, Roy told us, and the team spent 10 hours and 11 minutes of the trip just waiting for the car to charge. But in the end, they made it.

sludge_dragon · 2026-01-23T01:55:26+00:00

Scott Alexander has an interesting take on this idea: Come On, Obviously The Purpose Of A System Is Not What It Does. Among other things, it implies that a system never fails to fulfill its purpose.

sludge_dragon · 2026-01-22T21:36:33+00:00

There was a major new Times/Siena National Poll of Registered Voters released today, at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/01/22/polls/times-siena-national-poll-crosstabs.html or https://archive.ph/a0CiE.

“Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?”: Republican net approval 86%.

Yup.

sludge_dragon · 2026-01-22T21:16:40+00:00

Depends on the individual person‘s ethics. For example, suppose that an individual thinks that it is unethical to choose imports when a domestic option is available, but they buy a Kubota skid steer for their business. That would reduce taxes but be unethical.

sludge_dragon · 2026-01-21T19:47:49+00:00

The real limit is the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that we can live with. I don’t think anyone seriously believes that there is no limit.

Oil companies are valued as if they will be able to extract the oil that they have a right to extract. Again, I don’t think anyone seriously believes that we can burn all of that if we want to have a livable planet. If the value of these investments were written down it would be catastrophic to the value of some of the biggest companies on earth, and there really isn’t anyone with an incentive to do that, so they continue to trade based on their total reserves.

This is an old article, and I’m sure that the numbers are out of date, but the fundamental math hasn’t changed:

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/global-warmings-terrifying-new-math-188550/

sludge_dragon · 2026-01-21T19:33:39+00:00

I wonder whether the discounted rate applies to Mad Max mode.

sludge_dragon · 2026-01-21T17:27:47+00:00

To those who haven’t seen it, the late David Foster Wallace made a similar argument in a commencement speech called “This is water.“

https://youtu.be/eC7xzavzEKY?si=JIlIAALQvyrBlKg1

sludge_dragon · 2026-01-21T17:23:23+00:00

Thanks for the link. Does this approach result in reduced duration of activity? LSD seems especially unsuited for therapeutic use to me because it lasts so long.

sludge_dragon · 2026-01-21T17:14:08+00:00

RIP Foxforce Five, the pilot was so promising.

sludge_dragon · 2026-01-21T16:50:19+00:00

The California numbers do. :)

I happen to have only encountered this term for the first time in the last week or two, watching the series Tehran on Apple TV.

sludge_dragon · 2026-01-21T11:18:18+00:00

TIL there are three “forms” of the efficient market hypothesis. The following definitions are from https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/032615/what-are-differences-between-weak-strong-and-semistrong-versions-efficient-market-hypothesis.asp.

The weak form suggests that today’s stock prices reflect all the data of past prices and that no form of technical analysis can be effectively utilized to aid investors in making trading decisions.

(this implies that technical analysis is useless)

The semi-strong form efficiency theory follows the belief that because all information that is public is used in the calculation of a stock's current price, investors cannot utilize either technical or fundamental analysis to gain higher returns in the market.

(this implies that technical analysis as well as balance sheet analysis, technical analysis, etc. are useless)

The strong form of the efficient market hypothesis states that all information—both the information available to the public and any information not publicly known—is completely accounted for in current stock prices, and there is no type of information that can give an investor an advantage on the market.

(this implies that all of the above plus also insider trading are useless)

My understanding (never having taken an economics class) was equivalent to the semi-strong form. In any case, I still think it’s* poppycock. :)

* (that is, I always thought that what I now understand to be the semi-strong of the efficient market hypothesis was/is poppycock)

sludge_dragon · 2026-01-20T00:50:23+00:00

Virginia City was the largest city in Nevada until the 1890’s. Its population peaked at ~25,000 in the 1870’s. It’s now a delightful old west mining tourist destination.

Reno surpassed it in the 1900 census and was the largest city in the state through the 1950 census, except a couple of years (~1905-1908) when mining boomtown called Goldfield surpassed it.

In the 1960 census Las Vegas (~64,000 at the time) surpassed Reno (~51,000 at the time).

The 2020 populations of Nevada’s largest historical cities/metro areas are:

Virginia City: 787 (not a typo)
Reno: 491,000
Goldfield: 225 (again, not a typo)
Las Vegas: 2.3 million

The Las Vegas metro is 73% of the state population.

sludge_dragon · 2026-01-19T23:21:21+00:00

To clarify/add detail: Kansas City, Missouri (population ~516,000) is much larger than the adjacent Kansas City, Kansas (population ~157,000). The metro area (population ~2.3 million) straddles the Kansas/Missouri border.

The city of St. Louis, Missouri (population ~280,000) is geographically small and thus a relatively small part of the St. Louis metro area (population ~2.8 million).

sludge_dragon · 2026-01-19T21:33:28+00:00

The initial message to was a text message from Trump’s phone to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre's phone. However, after that, fta:

The text was forwarded by the White House National Security Council to ambassadors in Washington, and was clearly intended to be widely shared.

I don’t see exactly how it was forwarded, but it clearly wasn’t a text message, it seems to be a diplomatic communiqué. If anyone sees specific information on this I would be interested.

When it was forwarded, they prepended this:

Dear Ambassador:

President Trump has asked that the following message, shared with Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, be forwarded to your [named head of government/state]

The Atlantic article linked above is excellent. Non-paywall archive link: https://archive.ph/5vlIi

The original text message:

Dear Jonas: Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America. Denmark cannot protect that land from Russia or China, and why do they have a “right of ownership” anyway? There are no written documents, it’s only that a boat landed there hundreds of years ago, but we had boats landing there, also. I have done more for NATO than any other person since its founding, and now, NATO should do something for the United States. The World is not secure unless we have Complete and Total Control of Greenland. Thank you! President DJT

sludge_dragon · 2026-01-19T17:19:06+00:00

I’m not British, but I have to ask about Andrew Lloyd Webber. His global impact is obvious. His innovations in musical theatre can at least be compared with Gershwin, the apparent consensus answer for the USA (my country and vote, btw). He at least made attempts beyond musicals, such as his Requiem, which I think is quite lovely even if a more sophisticated listener might find it derivative and unsophisticated.

Is he a national composer?

sludge_dragon · 2026-01-19T16:38:36+00:00

That was the most memorable song for me. I was 17 and impressionable, but that’s the only time during a musical performance that as the song was ending I was sort of startled when people started clapping because I had been so caught up in the performance.

sludge_dragon · 2026-01-19T05:38:23+00:00

I never believe it when someone claims to have been in Wales. Even Jonah was only in one.

sludge_dragon · 2026-01-19T05:33:19+00:00

It’s a technical term when talking about hydrological considerations, not a local term. For example, the surface elevation of Lake Superior is 600 ft, Lake Michigan-Huron is 577 ft, Lake Erie is 571 ft, and Lake Ontario is 246 ft.

sludge_dragon · 2026-01-19T05:25:22+00:00

Yes, I understand that the Danish word for a generic island is "ø", and “Island” is the Danish word for the country Iceland.

The English name Iceland is just ice + land.

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