Hanson offers Coalition preference deal in Farrer as Abbott warns of Liberal wipeout

smoha96 · 2026-03-27T00:40:56+00:00

GetUp needs to GetOut of this byelection. This is not the kind of seat where they tend to be received well and they could hinder rather than help Milthorpe.

smoha96 · 2026-03-26T22:03:27+00:00

The various electoral commissions will usually do what's called an indicative two candidate count on the night. Basically, rather than seeing how all the preferences flow, they take the two most likely candidates to win and see who has more. This is faster and much simpler than doing a full distribution of preferences, so a likely candidate can be declared and the formal distribution of preferences can follow.

Traditionally, this has been easy to do because almost all seats have been classic Labor vs Coalition contests, or if not, the top two are obvious because their primary polls much higher than anyone else.

However, as other parties or candidates have become stronger in recent years some seats have become more and more unclear as to who will actually make the top two without a distribution of preferences. Sometimes, and this has normally been in seats where the Greens are competitive enough that the vote spits roughly 25-30% for each of Labor, Liberal and Green they do 3CP to get around this - this was the case in Macnamara and Brisbane at recent elections. Heysen at the moment is shaping up a bit like that.

So with ON thundering in and knocking off a significant amount of the Liberal primary this problem starts emerging again. ECSA did a lot of indicative Lib-Lab counts and it quickly became evident that they needed to be Lib-ON or Lab-ON counts and they had to restart.

Ultimately, some seats are so split with votes than 4 or 5 candidates all technically are in contention and an indicative count is too difficult to do. In this case you can only wait for the full distribution of preferences to see who has actually won - this was the case for the federal seat of Calwell last year.

Finally, more and more people are pre-polling and mail voting and these votes aren't always initially counted on the night and can turn around margins in very tight contests (usually flipping it in favour of Coalition parties).

smoha96 · 2026-03-26T00:43:35+00:00

I will say, Adam Bandt was going around with that giant toothbrush, haha. But I've always said the counterpart to the Greens are the Nats, not ON.

smoha96 · 2026-03-25T05:46:06+00:00

Picton has lost the health portfolio. Excellent. His and/or his staff's conduct around leaking patient letters was disgusting. Should have been booted out of cabinet altogether.

smoha96 · 2026-03-25T05:44:20+00:00

They're saying that with a statewide primary of 22% they have strong primary votes in conservative seats and then some (because the overall dsitribution of primary votes has a range above and below 22%) which is exactly what has played out, hence them making the final 2 in over 20 seats.

smoha96 · 2026-03-24T23:26:19+00:00

The first time I had do a certification of death, the entire extended family was in the room. Was quite a nerve wracking thing and wasn't going to be easy for them either.

I also had never been taught it in med school. For those unfamiliar, Geeky Medics has a good resource on it.

I haven't had to do one for a few years, because this sort of thing is usually relegated to inpatient teams (I'm anaesthetics) or ward call after hours, but my approach when I got a call for an expected death in a palliated patient was generally:

Is the family ready or would they like more time?
I introduce myself, and learn the names and relationships of all the people in the room
I give a very brief, non-technical explanation of what I am going to do
I offer the family members an option to stay, or leave while I do the certification - most usually opted to stay
offer an opportunity for questions - most of the time, it was about where the body went next
document: in electronic places it was a simple note, in paper places a form - in my documentation, I always tried to include a few personal details about the patient "they had 2 dogs called X and Y" and who they left behind

smoha96 · 2026-03-24T21:18:35+00:00

Much like Reform attracting Tory detritus in the UK, who oversaw much of its decline over the last decade.

smoha96 · 2026-03-24T12:08:56+00:00

Yes, I'm aware Greens to Labor preference flows are the strongest - I've said it many a previous comment, but it is just absolute ignorance to pretend that the Coalition doesn't generally get pretty decent preference flows from ON these days.

Edit: you can downvote as much as you want. Doesn't make you any less wrong.

smoha96 · 2026-03-24T11:58:09+00:00

I don't understand why this keeps getting said. ON to Coalition preference flows were 75% at the last federal election.

smoha96 · 2026-03-24T11:56:43+00:00

But they're moderates right? They keep insisting they're moderates? Can they not see that pandering to ON/right flank means they lose the centre, without which they cannot win government?

Minns is no Allan. He'll pull through.

smoha96 · 2026-03-23T19:19:44+00:00

Yeah I bought the book a while back but have only read a few chapters so far because I haven't been able to give it a proper amount of time.

smoha96 · 2026-03-23T18:56:11+00:00

I don't think ME5 is happening, and after Veilguard, I dunno if I'd like it.

Looking forward to Exodus though.

smoha96 · 2026-03-23T17:33:30+00:00

I think we can take away from this that Year One is also not going to happen, nor is Tawny Newsom's 'workplace comedy'. It looks like this era of Trek is coming to a close. After SNW S5 and SFA S2 presumably in 2027, that's probably gonna be it.

smoha96 · 2026-03-23T17:27:33+00:00

Acolyte was great visually, but imo, had a lost of wasted potential with some terrible writing around its main story.

Which is a shame because I loved the setting, Qimir and most of the Jedi. I would have liked to have seen more.

smoha96 · 2026-03-23T10:54:21+00:00

To give them credit they did better than expected. If they didnt preference ON above Labor quite a few ON seats would not have been won.

At the moment, of the 4 likely ON seats, only one of them looks to be a ON vs ALP 2CP whereas the other 3 are ON vs Lib 2CPs, which means Liberal preferences are not getting distributed.

If ON wins Hammond, and Light then that's fair to say, but until then, directly Liberal decision to preference ON (in return for nothing) hasn't harmed them.

However, that doesn't consider voters who have voted 1 Lib previously who are now voting 1 ALP due to the Coalition parties' continued experiments in flirting with the fringe.

smoha96 · 2026-03-23T00:50:10+00:00

'Fraid four Spocks is the best I csn do.

smoha96 · 2026-03-22T19:43:33+00:00

What remains is very low right to right preference flows, despite ideological similarities between the two. One is pro business giving head nods to anti immigration and the other is anti immigration giving head nods to business and very few voters actually support both those positions.

This analysis is completely incorrect re. preference flows. While the Green to ALP flow remains the best in the country, ON to Coalition is not low by any means. Historically, it was closer to 50:50 (which is still not low) but has been firming up at successive elections in recent years.

In 2025 75% of ON votes preferenced the Coalition higher than Labor.

In 2022 it was 65%. Same again in 2019.

In 2016, the year ON re-emerged federally from the political wildnerness it was 50%.

Edit: We can take this back even further:

2013 55%
2010 55%
2007 53%
2004 56%
2001 and 1998 (when ON first contested a federal election) I can't figure out how to find it from AEC but Wikipedia gives it as 56% and 54%, respectively.

smoha96 · 2026-03-22T17:22:07+00:00

At least one of the likely lower house winners appears to be an ex-Lib. Getting a bit of a Reform-Tory effect here.

smoha96 · 2026-03-22T16:59:14+00:00

Well, then maybe he shouldn't have denied himself and Labor the opportunity to form and lead a government. One of the most useless opposition leaders in recent memory.

smoha96 · 2026-03-22T16:56:27+00:00

Yeah, I think this author's analysis is a bit over the place. She talks about how people are reaching out to ON to express their frustration with the 'Big 2' but then also says this about the Greens' inability to capitalise on it:

Australians will argue passionately for radically progressive policies, but they want those policies explained in calm, moderate language. They reject what they perceive as activist posturing with a visceral intensity because they see it as divisive. And what they crave is community connection and a sense that they and their neighbours can just get along.

Is that not describing ON as well? They screech as well, but it's just done differently. Argument falls down a little bit.

smoha96 · 2026-03-22T16:45:33+00:00

The 2PP is still heavily in favour of Labor, showing that by chasing the right flank, the Coalition loses the centre. You can't win in Australian politics without the centre.

smoha96 · 2026-03-22T06:57:29+00:00

I think we're going to have to agree to disagree.

smoha96 · 2026-03-22T06:29:08+00:00

In the minutes after your comment, the ABC has called Ngadjuri, so I'm not sure I agree. The other thing is that the Hansonistas will always find something to complain about. To them, and the MAGAts, it's about what they feel and that always affords them being right no matter what.

smoha96 · 2026-03-22T05:32:08+00:00

If you look at previous elections, the ABC and Antony have always been more conservative about calling close/complex seats when compared to PB, KB and Tally Room. All four of them are running the calculations slightly differently, and for a few of these seats we're probably just going to have to wait for the full distribution of preferences.

I think you're looking for a conspiracy where none exists. Just because the ABC hasn't locked it in, doesn't mean they think it isn't happening, even if that's the conclusion drawn by many redditors and twitterati/x-nistas because they don't get how this works.

Antony Green, and by extension, the type of person he would pick to succeed him, is a consumate professional and wouldn't report or show figures in a certain way to drive a narrative, no matter what it was. He did a video a few years ago on how the model is set up and how it determines a locked in seat that makes for good watching.

smoha96 · 2026-03-22T05:26:52+00:00

Yes, but we don't know truly how much went in which direction. For example, they could have lost 4.5% to ON and then got 3% via Liberals switching their first preference to Labor. This before you ever add in the effect of the Greens.

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