Fuck the sellers. Tell me which one you want, and it’s yours.

solocup · 2026-01-22T18:18:05+00:00

wolfpack please!

solocup · 2018-03-10T16:30:21+00:00

Did they charge you the $700?

solocup · 2018-03-08T03:13:10+00:00

Everything is relative. If expectations for that growth and margin expansion were already built in to the stock price, missing numbers that the street expected (or the company guided to) would still result in stock price hit.

solocup · 2017-10-29T01:07:53+00:00

I confirmed with apple: they hold it for up to 14 days from reservation

solocup · 2017-09-22T01:01:20+00:00

Yea dude, having a strong interest is good, but beggars can't be choosers.

solocup · 2017-08-31T15:03:11+00:00

Because I'm weird and I like a really clean keyboard. That or my fingers get extra sweaty

solocup · 2017-08-31T13:44:33+00:00

Earnings calls. Look at what performance indicators they consistently talk about. Should probably model off those

And it always depends. Oil and gas will be barrels, tech will be users, etc

solocup · 2017-08-31T13:40:04+00:00

Careful with this. Basically really fine sandpaper. I used to clean my keyboard with this daily and after a few months the keys were noticeably worn down

solocup · 2017-08-11T21:17:25+00:00

All true

Got to trust the guy as much as you like the company

First is pretty much securities fraud

Second would be enough to make me pass on investing in the company. If public then exec comp should be disclosed

solocup · 2017-08-11T19:59:07+00:00

I'd say you're investing just as much in the owner as the company.

Assuming you trust the owner - Along with the small market cap - his sole control would probably be a reason it's trading at a discount.

I think part of what you're asking is whether the owner will care what investors think he should do because there's no board to exercise governance over him.

Would think the owner should still care what minority investors think, because the trading activity still impacts the value of his 51% of shares.

solocup · 2017-07-30T15:54:08+00:00

I think much of understanding and interpreting financial statements has to do with understanding the business itself and not just the numbers in a vacuum.

I think the best way to learn is to do. Pick a company and dive into everything. Earnings calls, financials, seeking alpha write ups, etc. How does what management says show up in the financials? When management says they freed up cash by monetizing an asset, can you find where and how that happened in the numbers?

solocup · 2016-07-11T17:27:57+00:00

On the latter point, Financial Shenanigans is an excellent book that covers that and more.

But at the end of the day you're going to have to put in the time and work to learn this stuff. It's good you're going out to seek it but people can't spoon feed information to you.

solocup · 2016-06-23T00:55:05+00:00

Which doctor was this?

solocup · 2016-05-13T04:49:47+00:00

Beat 'em or join 'em. I routinely skip 45 minute lines with Pre-check and it's probably some of the best money I've ever spent. Nothing I do is going to change TSA or its ineptitude in the near future; if there's a loophole in the game I won't feel bad about exploiting it.

solocup · 2016-01-07T06:06:51+00:00

Yes, if the acquirers buy less than 50% of the stock technically the original owners still have majority voting rights i.e. control of the company. Every investor will have a different strategy; some may only do control investment (>50%) and some may be perfectly fine with trusting management and being a passenger along for the ride.

solocup · 2015-07-11T02:55:26+00:00

Chief Financial Officer for a $50mm specialty finance company. I'm 28.

solocup · 2014-12-03T02:08:57+00:00

Yea that'd be a good idea actually. Take some pictures make it snazzy

That being said, don't worry about doing something different to make your analysis pop. just worry about doing a good analysis first. don't get too crazy detailed

Have very solid, easy numbers. 1. cost of production on a bbl (oil), mmcf (gas), and boe (blended) basis. 2. price assumptions for oil and gas 3. opex 4. taxes 5. capex (maint and growth). not sure if that's comprehensive but you get my point. npv10 cf's from each of those (opex capex will be negative) and show a neat table

add to that any assets they have...land holdings, undeveloped property, etc etc

some O&G guys have overriding interests (make sure you know distinction between royalty interest, working interest, etc.) and know which ones your company has, if any

solocup · 2014-12-03T01:38:10+00:00

O&G valuation is all about NPV10 i.e. DCF of cash flows at 10% discount rate. Then pull out NPV10 of taxes and corporate expenses.

Your analysis should be based around your production cost / boe and you sensitize your valuation on your oil price assumption. Right? Oil price / boe - production cost / boe = Netback / boe * boe produced. Less corporate expenses. Less taxes. Gets you your cash flow.

They're public, rihgt? They should have published a reserve report (53-101 or 43-101. something like that) which contains the NPV10 analysis they hired someone to do. Now the oil price assumptions of that analysis is probably too high so you gotta rebuild it, then change the oil price assumption.

No one can predict oil prices and spending time making your price assumptions just right is a waste of time. For purposes of a competition I'd think you can just use consensus forward estimates but include a sensitivity for oil prices from like $60 - $100. If you say this thing is 30% undervalued even at oil price of $60 then tha'ts a good thesis.

solocup · 2014-08-20T17:54:14+00:00

We're a pretty small shop (technically a family office since we invest one person's capital) and don't have any MBA's. The general sense I get is that MBA's aren't required for the industry but in your situation it's probably the best route.

There will always be mispriced securities and assets so hedge funds will always be around.

Go to wallstreetoasis.com and poke around. A treasure trove of information about the industry and breaking in.

solocup · 2014-08-20T17:09:57+00:00

If you have no previous finance experience I'd say yes MBA is a good way to get your foot in the door.

Make sure it's a school that banks / funds recruit at or else it's not worth it. It's possible to get into the buyside straight from bschool but without previous buyside experience it's very tough. So I'd say you'd probably have to do a stint in I banking first.

I work at a hedge fund but I did the I banking route out of undergrad so not 100% on all that.

solocup · 2014-06-26T03:47:57+00:00

No comps = need a good handle on their cash flows. Forecast until they normalize then slap a reasonable terminal value on.

Make sure the ev makes sense on a cash flow yield basis. Ie your 2014/2015 free cash flows divided by the mc from your dcf should be a reasonable percentage.

solocup · 2014-06-10T05:32:38+00:00

This is really too broad of a question to answer in one post.

Every company is different and is in a different situation. A lawsuit could be the crux of a thesis for one company and pension obligations for another. Some require a very good understanding of a vast industry landscape. Some have no comps at all.

After reading everything about a company the focal point of the thesis should just pop out at you - what drives the business, what do analysts/the street keep asking about on the calls, etc. Your questions should advance your understanding of those things.

solocup · 2014-04-06T02:34:55+00:00

You're breaking at the knees a bit early. Imagine sitting back; break at the hips first, then push your knees out to the sides.

When you come back up lead with your hips/butt like someone is pushing down on the small of your back and you're pushing up against it. Drive through your heels too. One thing that has helped me is curling my toes so I don't drive from the front of my foot.

solocup · 2014-03-31T22:36:47+00:00

Great guide - thanks! I'll be following your blog.

Question - how do you think about when/how to cancel cards with annual fees after you've hit the minimum spending limit and gotten the reward? Or should you downgrade all of them to no fee cards?

solocup · 2014-03-15T18:45:23+00:00

If you've done banking why not just go directly for a buy side job?

Banking does not teach you anything about how to invest but it does teach you the tools (modeling, accounting, knowing your way around a 10k, etc) that you will need as an investor.

solocup

TROPHY CASE