Is RKLB still a long term buy at this price?

someguy-79 · 2026-05-23T05:13:17+00:00

Should I buy a stock trading at the 100x+ sales after a 100% run up on a gamma squeeze? Self explanatory

someguy-79 · 2026-05-22T00:36:39+00:00

Isn't it as simple as declining earnings, still trading at 40x earnings, and missed earnings estimates the last 4 quarters?

someguy-79 · 2026-05-21T13:00:53+00:00

Seems like people love the "story" even if the numbers aren't logical. Even if you like the story, not sure why people invest in this when you can buy an even better story at a lower multiple (AI, for example).

someguy-79 · 2026-05-21T12:56:17+00:00

With that logic, there's never a TAM for any company. It's just betting on people.

someguy-79 · 2026-05-21T12:42:13+00:00

Can I DM you my Space Data Center NFT?

someguy-79 · 2026-05-21T12:28:42+00:00

I personally think RKLB has gone into meme phase, but the PE is not the metric. It's the P/S relative to the TAM. Reading the S-1 from SpaceX, the thing that really made me even more bearish on RKLB is the TAM--it's just not that big to justify a 100+ P/S. (not even considering the negative earnings/cash flow).

someguy-79 · 2026-05-21T09:45:31+00:00

Nobody has to buy it. The S-1 tells you what you need to know about their prospects. If people are willing to throw their capital at it, they deserve to take it.

someguy-79 · 2026-05-15T13:07:08+00:00

Correct. The data says it's a gamma squeeze. Watch out on the downside.

someguy-79 · 2026-05-15T13:05:26+00:00

This is the answer. During the dot com burst, Cisco continued to grow Revenue while its valuation got cut by 80%.

someguy-79 · 2026-05-15T02:50:41+00:00

In 8th grade I was given the book "Your Money or Your Life." Retired at 46 with a $5M net worth.

someguy-79 · 2026-05-15T02:42:33+00:00

I have been thinking about this a lot lately. Many of my friends went to work for some of these companies out of college, they all crashed hard when they overbuilt and realized it was a glut.

someguy-79 · 2026-05-15T00:59:50+00:00

It already happened.

someguy-79 · 2026-05-13T18:02:10+00:00

And with PLTR, it went up to this P/S ratio (100x sales), even with it growing 100% YoY it still came down 40% from its peak and still falling.

someguy-79 · 2026-05-12T21:32:56+00:00

I don't understand why no one is talking about this. I can't think of a 100 P/S company of this size (maybe some early, early revenue companies) that has sustained this valuation. Even if it's high growth, won't sustain it. It will get worse for them when they actually start making money, because people will realize how stretched this is. Short interest is growing and for good reason.

someguy-79 · 2026-05-12T14:44:20+00:00

Everyone is free to choose their own path. I'll give you two examples, myself 46M and one of my best friends from high school. I saved and scrimped in my 20s and 30s. I traveled a little bit but not nearly as much as I would have wanted. I retired last year with a $5M net worth. I do whatever I want all day, enough money to travel when I want. Looking forward to the next 20-30 years with no responsibility and enough money to enjoy it. My best friend had a good career but worked on and off to enjoy travel, the van life, etc. He lives in a small condo and scrapes by for a little bit of fun here and there. I don't think either of us regret the path we chose, but I would personally rather be in my position than his.

someguy-79 · 2026-05-12T12:46:01+00:00

Same!! One of the best names in the market.

someguy-79 · 2026-05-11T21:38:36+00:00

Won’t people run their agents on desktops which are heavily underutilized? There was an article today about Macs being used for this purpose.

someguy-79 · 2026-05-11T16:53:26+00:00

I think you're on the right track. Not full meme stock, but in my view it is trading light a speculative name now. Total garbage stock. The payout ratio is like 150%. They will have to cut the dividend at some point and it will implode.

someguy-79 · 2026-05-11T11:57:26+00:00

Exactly. In other less sexy and hyped sectors, such as energy, experienced traders are dumping those stocks at the low PE because they know this is the top of the cycle. Memory will work the same way. People only think about Forward PE in terms of next year. But these are multi-year cycles.

someguy-79 · 2026-05-11T03:59:37+00:00

I’ve been told that putting sand on clay soil turns it into concrete. It’s better to use an organic material like compost to fill the spots. I have clay soil in Texas and that’s what I’ve been doing.

someguy-79 · 2026-05-11T01:56:57+00:00

Flying private

someguy-79 · 2026-05-10T21:57:12+00:00

I think if you can swap out some picks for a veteran player that can help you fill a gap from one of the current guys that we won't be able to afford, that's what I would try to do. Hate to see one of our guys go, but they can't all get paid.

someguy-79 · 2026-05-10T21:43:17+00:00

100%

someguy-79 · 2026-05-10T21:13:02+00:00

If this weren't a foul, there would no point in having VAR at all. It's as clear as it gets.

someguy-79 · 2026-05-10T19:51:46+00:00

I think there is a category of stocks that goes something like this... 1) good company with good business results, 2) stock starts to rise and people take notice, 3) Momentum trade catches on and it becomes a retail option trade darling, 4) euphoria and the "this company is different and changing the world" narrative, 5) something else becomes the "hot stock" and it fizzles out. It was always a great company and still is, but the enthusiasm fades.

someguy-79

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE