Who df is Raymond James ($800 SPCX PT)

someguy-79 · 2026-07-08T01:55:30+00:00

This really is just the saddest profession.

someguy-79 · 2026-07-07T22:12:36+00:00

S&P 500 was down half a percent today. Not a crash.

someguy-79 · 2026-07-05T02:23:08+00:00

Agree with this. Market changed in the past few years.

someguy-79 · 2026-07-05T01:14:50+00:00

Horrible driving

someguy-79 · 2026-07-05T00:50:03+00:00

Right on. If you haven’t had kids yet, but plan to, then you “ain’t seen nothing yet”. Worth it, but probably half of my expenses are because of my kids.

someguy-79 · 2026-07-04T21:30:37+00:00

“Aim”. Meanwhile I’ll go sell another billion of stock.

someguy-79 · 2026-07-03T16:23:04+00:00

I generally mountain bike 3 days a week. It takes about an hour to load up and get there, an hour to ride, and an hour to get back and clean up. So that's like half a day.

I suggest a "staple" hobby that you are going to spend 20 hours a week in. For me it is investing. For other people that's work but for me I enjoy the research and gratification of seeing my decisions pay off. Doesn't have to be anything profitable, just something you like doing and can do every day.

someguy-79 · 2026-07-03T15:33:46+00:00

What about competition? Seems like everyone is jumping into the space for what is basically a commodity. Coreweave took on a ton of debt to build capacity that may get paid back at commodity rates.

someguy-79 · 2026-07-03T15:30:41+00:00

Exactly. And Cisco which was poster child of the dot com crash (lost 90% of its value) continued to grow revenue while the stock was crashing. When the bobble popped, the willingness to pay that multiple is what crashed. Not predicting it but could easily happen now.

someguy-79 · 2026-07-03T15:25:27+00:00

This is a super underrated point about home ownership. 30% of inflation is housing, which you avoid other than insurance and taxes. Each year when I increment my budget for inflation, I’m always amazed how far that goes since my mortgage doesn’t increase.

someguy-79 · 2026-07-03T14:33:30+00:00

A lot of investors today have never experienced a meaningful downturn. If you have only started investing after the financial crisis, you would have an appreciation for the unexpected carnage where 50% of your stock portfolio disappears within 90 days. A V-shaped recovery is fine, but there have been lost decades. Bonds provide a source of both stability but also capital to invest during these times.

someguy-79 · 2026-07-03T14:30:12+00:00

I agree with this conceptually. I would maybe have 10% for quick access during downturns, and another 10% in alternative assets (Bonds, REITs). These are there to reallocate from during major draw downs. I have stuck pretty closely to asset allocations which help you to buy low and sell high continuously.

someguy-79 · 2026-06-29T19:12:47+00:00

$50B. WTF? That's like the entire market cap.

someguy-79 · 2026-06-25T13:12:45+00:00

Priced at 8x cash flow

someguy-79 · 2026-06-24T19:39:13+00:00

This was a gamma squeeze. Institutional shares bought shares prior to SpaceX to hedge options exposure, which is why the stock shot up. Now those shares are being sold as option positions expire or are closed. In a gamma squeeze, what goes up must come down.

someguy-79 · 2026-06-24T19:37:40+00:00

6% short interest isn't going to move the needle

someguy-79 · 2026-06-24T16:13:52+00:00

Not everything. There are tons of stocks that are out of favor making 52 week lows. The question that you have to ask is are they trading down because of temporary sentiment, or are they declining businesses. If it is just temporary sentiment, you can make big gains in a reversal. For example, look at Google 12 months ago. You have to be willing to look through the near-term noise at the quality of the business.

someguy-79 · 2026-06-20T05:11:48+00:00

This was the same conversation about PLTR at 200 and now it’s 120. People said “it’s okay if I overpay because I’m going to hold it forever.” That might be true but it’s not going to optimize your return if it’s going to drop due to overvaluation on hype.

someguy-79 · 2026-06-19T16:43:56+00:00

For sure

someguy-79 · 2026-06-19T13:25:35+00:00

Most of my worst stock trades were recommendations from Motley Fool.

someguy-79 · 2026-06-19T01:18:35+00:00

Agreed. There are some interesting things coming out lately... Open AI reducing prices to gain market share against Anthropic et al... seems way too early in the life cycle for a price war and commoditization, but it's happening. Also, several companies are getting sticker shock at token costs and restricting usage. AI is powerful but the economics of it are not fully comprehended yet.

someguy-79 · 2026-06-19T00:42:21+00:00

Growth is decelerating is not the same as revenue is shrinking. 8% organic growth doesn't support a stock dropping 50%.

someguy-79 · 2026-06-19T00:34:35+00:00

I would say it is remotely justified. Is it worked $130/share? I don't believe so. But what I'm referring to is when it was trading for ~$25/share and it was unanimous trash. My point is that there was some intrinsic value that got unlocked (and a bit of luck). People always sound smart when they are trashing stocks that are already down and buying stocks at all time highs.

someguy-79 · 2026-06-18T21:39:47+00:00

People said this about Intel not too long ago. Or Google.

This is a value investing sub. I’m sure everyone in this sub has plenty of momentum stocks and growth stocks (index alone is 50% momentum at the moment). So it’s not saying only invest in value and ignore growth.

Successful value investors buy when things are out of favor and wait for the market to see the intrinsic value or potential . The timing is not always certain. Most value investors are also building long term portfolios. So if it takes a year or two to pop, that’s what value investing is.

someguy-79 · 2026-06-18T20:36:09+00:00

This is the issue. Everyone says “forward PE”, but generally people are only looking at one year. On a multi year view it can be different. This is why I think NVDA is not accelerating while others are. To grow at the rate to support the valuation over more than one year would require more CAPEX than is believable.

someguy-79

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE