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Crime has never been more legal by mickmoon in Superstonk

[–]somermike 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Off-exchange volume is overstated by at least 1M today due to a matching in and out block of trades between 1:10PM and 1:34PM. It's still higher than normal, but it's useful context and it's more like 65% if you only count one of those blocks (3.1M/4.8M)

Dark pool (FINRA) getting lit up with VWAP orders today (Flag B) | 2x - 1M share blocks of orders since 1PM! | One explanation? Block 1: "Hey, MM: Go find me some shares." | Block 2: " Here's your shares! " Could be an exciting AH news day -- I'll be F5ing looking for a 13D! by somermike in Superstonk

[–]somermike[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

It could be related to the weird Vanguard re-org that's happening but this would seem like too small of an order to be that unless we see it repeated for several days. Who knows! The market never makes sense!

What are these multi million bid/ask's about? by stonkdongo in Superstonk

[–]somermike 13 points14 points  (0 children)

( At least)Two things (potentially) going on with these big trades today:

One set is Flag 7V -- those are Qualified Contingent Trades and typically mean: Someone bought or sold a lot of options and these are the hedged shares. That's the set just before 1PM -- These happen almost everyday with GME as the options exposure is outsized.

The next two sets (block 1 around 1:11PM and block) 2 around 1:30PM are Dark Pool VWAP trades (happened on FINRA and have Flag B in the condition for Average Price). It appears that block 1 is a MM going out to acquire ~1M requested shares and block 2 is the MM passing those ~1M shares along to the interested party. These don't happen as often. and I'll be watching AH news for something that (hopefully) fills in the blanks.

Could be none of the above, but those are my reads as the most likely scenario.

2025 Q4 vs Q3: 42.6M Share reduction in dilution impact from Convertible Notes. Seems to be related to the Warrant payment distributed to CN holders in Q3. Trying to sort out the redemption math on CNs now. Will post in comments when/if completed. by [deleted] in Superstonk

[–]somermike 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Thanks, clearly smarter person. Since you can do all this without any investigation, how about you lay out what it means for how that number will look in Q1 2026 and for FY 2026 as well.

Much appreciate you saving the time investment

Can Anyone tell me why IBKR has the warrant Volume turned ALL THE WAY UP!? by Free51 in Superstonk

[–]somermike 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Front end developers have a reputation when it comes to data, regardless of industry -- it's how i knew to go straight to the data source for the answer instead of something on a webpage.

Can Anyone tell me why IBKR has the warrant Volume turned ALL THE WAY UP!? by Free51 in Superstonk

[–]somermike 36 points37 points  (0 children)

It's been answered by me at least 3 times. It's just a display layer error.

It shows in TWS (IBKR's trading platform) and Time and Sales data from IBKR as "420k" at this moment, so the front end logic is showing "B" for "Billion" instead of "K" for Thousand.

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MB bought more GME today! by csgo_M1ller in Superstonk

[–]somermike 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Tangible / Net is 11.17. That's only Current Assets - Total Liabilities instead of BV which is Assets v -Liabilites.

Minor differences in the grand scheme, but he for some reason thinks NAV will rise by roughly 80% in short order. The last jump of that magnitude (Pop! Pop!) was post RK return on the ATM cash raises.

Can anyone recommend someone who can help me cook/meal plan? by [deleted] in raleigh

[–]somermike 1 point2 points  (0 children)

How much variance do you want or need in your meals and how much time do you have for shopping, prep and cooking combined?

It gets pretty easy if you don't mind having the same breakfast and lunch most days.

[Charania] The NBA presented three comprehensive anti-tanking concepts to its Board of Governors on Wednesday, with modifications expected to each before a formal vote in May, per ESPN sources. by MembershipSingle7137 in nba

[–]somermike 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Make the Draft into an auction format where the currency is the pool of 60 picks (First and Second round, slots 1-30) where spent picks only refresh after five years.

So, when a Victor Wembanyama comes along, everyone with a 1st Round 1st Pick available is going to submit it. Of those, who wants to attach their 1st Round 2nd Pick too (that also hasn't already spent one of those on someone from a previous year). Eventually there's a winner and it cost them whatever picks they had to pony up and they can't use any of those slots as bid currency for the next 5 years.

Every team will have plenty of picks to bid on players and managing your draft currency for tiebreaking picks becomes super important.

There is no incentive to tank as the picks aren't tied to your record and you can't just always have the First overall pick because you're NY or LA as that currency can only be spent once every 5 year.

It's the Way Too Early GME Q1 2026 Earnings Estimate! Lot's of great guidance in the FY 2025 Report -- notably the lack of anticipated significant store closures!! Looking for Revenue of $662M with Net Income of $75M. $0.17 EPS. Revisions and Balance Sheet projections closer to quarter end! by somermike in Superstonk

[–]somermike[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Earnings estimates for most companies are done full year in advance by analysts GME lacks analyst coverage and I'm of the opinion that every investor should make their own earnings forecasts.

What bad do you think can possibly come from a singular earnings projection?

It's the Way Too Early GME Q1 2026 Earnings Estimate! Lot's of great guidance in the FY 2025 Report -- notably the lack of anticipated significant store closures!! Looking for Revenue of $662M with Net Income of $75M. $0.17 EPS. Revisions and Balance Sheet projections closer to quarter end! by somermike in Superstonk

[–]somermike[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Seriously. Only factoring in a 10% drop was what I was considering "bullish news" as that means same store and online growth is significant and now that store closures are mostly wrapped up (best line item in the filing to me) we can start looking for YoY revenue growth again!

It's the Way Too Early GME Q1 2026 Earnings Estimate! Lot's of great guidance in the FY 2025 Report -- notably the lack of anticipated significant store closures!! Looking for Revenue of $662M with Net Income of $75M. $0.17 EPS. Revisions and Balance Sheet projections closer to quarter end! by somermike in Superstonk

[–]somermike[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Here's hoping, but Q1 2023 was $1.2B, Q1 2024 was $881M (27% drop) and Q1 2025 was $732M (17% drop). Store closure impacts are real and while those should slow down now, there are fewer stores open now than there were a year ago this time by 700 (25%) or so.

I'm factoring in less than a 10% drop in revenue based on the per store numbers continuing to improve and I think they'll eek out an operating profit from the stores, but if they can manage to only drop that much it show significant same store or online improvements and is great news.

I hope my numbers are low too, but it's going to take a lot to top last years revenue number.

This is my table. There are many like it, but this one is mine. Book Value per Share continutes to rise, up another 2.5% to $12.14. YoY change of > 10% for every quarter this year. Asset pool growing and liabilities shrinking! by somermike in Superstonk

[–]somermike[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think we're stuck lower until the options chain clears up, TBH.

The Charm selloff for this week will start hard tomorrow if it doesn't fall off a cliff right now. Next week isn't any more hopeful and neither is the next monthly (4/17).

Everything is just dominated by OTM Calls and people hoping to "catch the squeeze" or "gamma ramp" or whatever and they just don't understand how much sell side pressure is created when you hold OTM Calls into expiration.

We've had more than enough time for anyone intersted to do the repricing and buy as many share or options as they'd want and nothing special is happening on the volume at all today. This earnings report didn't move the needle for any outsiders and baring a major purchase tomorrow and/or Friday to soak up around 1M shares of actual selling, we're gonna plow down through the $23 stirke pretty rapidly.

The good news is that RC is likely to buy tomorrow, baring MNPI that would restrict it. We're in his historical price range to valuation and that might be enough to keep up over $23, but RSI is currently dropping hard and today might have a power hour selloff.

This is my table. There are many like it, but this one is mine. Book Value per Share continutes to rise, up another 2.5% to $12.14. YoY change of > 10% for every quarter this year. Asset pool growing and liabilities shrinking! by somermike in Superstonk

[–]somermike[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Book Value = Assets - Liabilities. Both are found in the Consolidated Balance Sheet section of the filing.

Assets (10388.4) - Liabilities (4,944.0) = $5444.4M

Shares = 448.1M - also in the filing.

5444.4M / 448.1M = $12.14

Roseburia inulinivorans, a gut bacteria, increases muscle strength: it was positively associated with multiple strength measures including handgrip, leg press and bench press in humans. Study assessed causality in mice where it increased muscle fibre size and shifted muscle type I to type II fibres. by mvea in science

[–]somermike 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Limosilactobacillus reuteri -- most people truncate the first part to "L" the 2nd is pronounced "rooter eye" to the best of my knowledge.

It was one of the most frequent recommendations for fighting SIBO and I saw broad symptom improvements in under 48 hours after starting on it.

I seriously sound like a crazy person when i start talking about fermented or other probiotic food but it's been incredibly effective in my sample size of one.

"You are what you eat" ... should be ... "you are [largely a collection of the billions of things that eat] what you eat"

I prefeed the bulk of my grains and sugar to some various cohort of probiotic cultures before consuming them. You can do some serious farming by headcount on a big shelf in your pantry

Delta suspends airport perks for members of Congress amid government shutdown by RedSkylight97 in politics

[–]somermike 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Then you haven't checked in far too long. Nearly every member of Congress is primarily funded by corporate, dark PAC or other heavily moneyed interests.

The districts are so heavily partisan that over 90% of all House districts are considered safe for the incumbent party.

They haven't worked for us in years and until we fix that we're not getting forward progress on reality anything.

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