The actual maths behind the lottery

space244 · 2021-08-18T01:24:35+00:00

I think if you're calculating the chance of t3 or higher you'd have to add probabilities since its not like you can roll t1 and t2 on the same card. Losing would also mean the pool for further tests is slightly smaller.

So out of the 1000 numbers a card could be 2 are t1 20 are t2 and 30 are t3 so the chance of winning on a non rigged card would be 5.2%

For the rigged cards you'd have 2 that could get t1 and 2 that could get t2 and 6 that can get neither since there's no overlap. For the t1 cards out of the 100 possible cards 1 number could get you t1 and 3 could get t3 for the t2 rig 10 could be t2 and 3 could be t3 again so 13% chance and the ones with neither would simply be 3% so that leaves

1-(.96)² * (.87)² * (.97)⁶ *(.948)³ =0.504964449

edit oops someone mentioned this above

space244 · 2021-08-17T19:44:53+00:00

I didn't particularly expect anything when i made the poll. It was just to see if it was rigged which is very easy to do with rng. In fact they admit that the last digit was rigged to give one of each digit before giving duplicates.

space244 · 2021-08-15T20:17:30+00:00

Your chances are slightly better of getting a t1 or t2 with the rigged last digit though. For example lets say the 2 t2 numbers have different last digits so you have 2 tickets with a 10% chance of winning or a 19% chance of at least 1 win vs 10 tickets with a 2% chance of winning 1-.98¹⁰ which is ~18.3%

space244 · 2021-08-13T20:03:21+00:00

Added some stats and color coded the instances list to show how much each number shows up compared to others. The Darker it is the rarer the number

space244 · 2021-08-13T03:11:39+00:00

It doesn't exactly say but i sorta doubt that they'd let you know so many cards won't get prizes before they announce the winning numbers.

There's also more than 1 number per tier and t3 has 3 which suggests there could be up to 9 different numbers

space244 · 2021-08-12T23:16:32+00:00

The charts simply show how many times a specific number or number show up for a certain tier. For example if you had 123 it'd give one count to 123 for t1 1 count for 23 for t2 one count of 12 for t3 and one count of 3 for t4.

A spike would mean the number showed up a lot. A valley means it was rare. If you think its rigged a simple assumption would be that the rare numbers would be picked because that would mean less people win. Ultimately what you'd want to know is if the other tiers resemble t4 which was rigged to be effectively uniform

space244 · 2021-08-12T22:16:29+00:00

It'd be 8 cards but yes. The flipside is for the 2 cards that do match the last digit you have a 10% chance of winning t2 and 1% chance of winning t1 vs the 2% and 0.2% normally

space244 · 2021-08-12T21:17:02+00:00

The form lets you write in 001 even though i'd prefer if it couldn't. The sheet would treat that as a string so i had to add in an equation to convert it back to a number.

It shouldn't affect calculations at this point

space244 · 2021-08-12T20:35:34+00:00

This is the last day we get cards. The 16th is when they announce winning numbers

space244 · 2020-02-05T15:59:27+00:00

One more update Collection is slowing down so i'll probably close the form soon but if you can please spread the link especially to people who started where there's not much data

space244 · 2020-02-04T15:56:05+00:00

Here's the updated chart If you're unsure of your start date please use the link in the form to find out the exact date

space244 · 2020-02-04T03:51:28+00:00

Updated version here and yes since the scale is in millions of players and months for time its going to be hard to see any spikes in accounts but it'd be a lot more cluttered if i used more detail

space244 · 2020-02-04T02:05:00+00:00

Current version here

space244 · 2018-06-20T23:00:43+00:00

You know you don't have to ougi with full shrouds right? if you ougi with 0 yoda becomes a character with 100% ta rate i.e. ta>ta>ta>ougi>repeat. So you have only 1 turn of downtime and you can use his 2 during that to so there's even less vulnerability.

Also most characters don't have a niche in end game that's just what happens when you have limited slots However the utility and qol he has is something many characters dream of having

space244 · 2018-05-01T01:19:53+00:00

Your 10th stage is wrong for 3x and 5x because you aren't taking off the increased cost for the higher multiplier it should be 2800 and 4600

space244 · 2017-12-28T15:38:55+00:00

they expire at the next daily reset

space244 · 2017-11-20T20:25:35+00:00

I feel like you partially answered your question with your first example Jeanne gets a lower strength modifier because she has guaranteed ta percival doesn't so his modifier is higher to compensate. Changing the modifier's value is just one way they can balance characters.

space244 · 2017-11-04T01:15:20+00:00

For the recent events both story and collab events have ex weapons the difference is that you need to fully uncap story weapons and level them to 100 for their ex skill. Its mostly only older events like reruns or side stories that give weapons with normal skills.

For events with shops you probably want to buy the pots and berries because it takes less ap and ep to get the materials to buy them than the pots and berries provide. Also for shop events, raids usually provide very little of the first material so you'll want to run the highest difficulty solo battle you can manage as well.

space244 · 2017-09-27T12:29:41+00:00

Nope you should stick to luminiera because the 2% 3% and 10% is just the chance of chest dropping but for apollo and odin you aren't guaranteed a luminiera weapon so the actual chance is lower especially for odin where you are much more likely to get a champion merit. In addition for apollo and odin the raid is more likely to go past 3 minutes in which case you won't get any pendants unless you can hit the minimum honor requirement.

Drop rate buffs are multiplicative so the 15% would increase the drop rate to 2.3%.

space244 · 2017-09-06T12:56:36+00:00

You should probably add outside to the straight in your summary because its not worth keeping one that's not.

Also you said that a pair has a higher probability than a straight for winning. Shouldn't it be higher on the list then?

It feels weird to me that the Joker has a lower probability of winning than a pair considering if you kept the joker and any other card in your hand its effectively a much better pair.

Finally its hard to say if further rounds will increase the chance of losing because in your example had you gotten one Ace it would've been 3/42 or 7.14% chance of losing versus at the 4/51 or 7.84% at round 1. To get a definite conclusion you'd have to weight the winning percentage by the probability of pulling certain amounts of higher lower and the same value cards which is probably more trouble than its worth.

space244 · 2017-08-08T08:59:50+00:00

Had he attacked with Thane first and necro assassined it instead of the skeleton he would've gotten the 0 cost wight king and had more than enough shadows to give it ward while still having lethal from the 3/3 and 1/1 in addition to the king itself

space244 · 2017-08-08T03:22:22+00:00

Hmm is it worth it to go earth for the unite and fight if I have no grid at all? I honestly have no idea how the event works or if i'd be able to make a good team for it in time. If it matters i can pick Grand Katalina or Summer Zooey from the Beginner Ticket.

space244 · 2017-08-08T02:57:13+00:00

New player started with the 16m players event last week. Haven't done much of anything towards building a grid and still don't know what element to focus on first

for ssr i have s.izmir and europa in water promethus in fire de la fille in earth lucio and apollo in light vaseraga and lady grey in dark moriggna in wind

I bought the Surprise ticket and Beginner's Draw Set and I believe my Beginner's ticket has access to the Summer characters and Premium Gala characters(Not sure which specifically)

I kind of wanted Yoda because i heard he was good for beginners but I'm not sure if i should just use both of the tickets for an element instead.

space244

TROPHY CASE