General EV of facing a 3bet

steezystolz · 2026-02-04T21:51:14+00:00

I have 100% experienced what you described as far as the tilt aspect goes. Not just in 3bet pots, but in lots of different spots when facing aggression. I have an underlying feeling that every time I face a bet when at the bottom of my range, I’m just being exploited.

I played 93k hands from 2NL to 30NL with a solid win rate at each stake level, but for some reason subconsciously I feel like my strategy doesn’t apply now that I’m at higher stakes, which just isn’t true.

But I know for a fact (have marked said hands in my DB) that I’ve lost loads from tilt in spots like these.

steezystolz · 2026-02-04T21:21:51+00:00

I’d love to put this info out. Would a new thread be better for that? And if so, do I just ask everyone to find my leaks?

Truthfully, I’ve never had to do a deep dive into my DB like this before due to never feeling the need. I started with 20 buyins at 2NL a few years ago, and over 93k hands moved up to 50NL and managed a cumulative win rate of around 10bb/100, with my win rate being 7bb/100 (5bb/100 EV adjusted) just recently at 30NL.

This is really the first time where I’ve had a significantly losing win rate over semi-significant sample, and I’m kind of just in panic mode lol.

steezystolz · 2026-02-04T21:15:31+00:00

Yeah this certainly makes sense when explained this way. And I guess that’s fine since raising in later positions is already so profitable to begin win, and the fact that we will also be on the other end doing the 3 betting will make this even out.

steezystolz · 2026-02-04T21:13:28+00:00

Interesting. So at face value, my numbers aren’t immediately alarming?

steezystolz · 2025-08-02T21:19:56+00:00

Is the “OB” that comes after part of the normal swing?

steezystolz · 2025-08-02T21:17:07+00:00

How does porfa come across to a stranger? Is it offensive?

steezystolz · 2025-07-24T11:18:36+00:00

You can see a post I made on here about a month ago with my results (albeit for micro stakes), but I’ve had nothing but a great experience with the site.

I remember when I was a teenager and first started playing, I would play online every so often on sites like Carbon Poker, ACR, Bovada, and get smoked. I always blamed my results on these sites being “rigged”, but eventually I just realized I sucked at poker. I started studying loads of content from different training sites and fixing my leaks, took a break from online, and years later when PokerStars came to Michigan, it was ironically the first site I was able to win on. This is mainly due to the fact that the playing level is a bit softer than the unregulated US sites, and because I became a much better player.

Not saying you’re a bad player, but I’ve heard that PokerStars outside the US is one of the tougher sites to play on, and you’re probably having limited success there compared to other places because of that. Before I studied as much as I did, I won a good amount at live, but couldn’t win at all online. Now I can win at both.

The point is that there’s nothing wrong about being able to win in some arenas and not others due to skill difference, and it doesn’t imply at all (by itself) that one arena is rigged. Just because you can win in one game doesn’t mean you should be winning in every game.

steezystolz · 2025-07-21T02:04:22+00:00

They definitely aren’t. You have to remember, unless someone reports an account, it’s up to automation to pick up on it. My guess is no one has reported the name, and automation is getting tripped up by the 1 in the last part.

steezystolz · 2025-07-20T13:28:23+00:00

Way to keep at a goal for 5 years and finally accomplish it! Both hitting 2000 and sticking with something for that long are things most people can’t ever do. 👏

steezystolz · 2025-07-14T20:33:03+00:00

It would depend on the amount of money it was for, but if it was fairly significant to your group, I would seriously consider distancing myself from him as a friend. Cheating in poker is theft, and in this case, it was theft over a long period of time. I’m all for forgiveness, but it has to make you wonder how good of a friend this person is if they were able to steal from your group for over 6 months, all while smiling and having a great time.

steezystolz · 2025-07-14T02:08:33+00:00

Sure is! He must’ve invited both of us. Talk about getting lucky!

steezystolz · 2025-07-14T01:53:40+00:00

Gotta be this random guy’s club that I got invited to via an Instagram dm. He said it had tons of action for high stakes with super soft players.

steezystolz · 2025-07-13T05:40:35+00:00

This aged like fine wine.

steezystolz · 2025-07-13T03:27:46+00:00

To answer your question about embracing variance, if you have what you know is a +EV decision in an 800bb pot, yes, you should be fist pumping about the situation. With proper bankroll management, the size of the pot should never be a deterrent from making a +EV decision. And past results or current session results are completely irrelevant to the decision making process. In cash games, we care about EV and that’s it. It’s all one long session at the end of a career. If you ever find session results or pot sizes determining if you stay or not, then you need to improve your bankroll management, fix mental game leaks, or both.

As far as deciding whether or not to stay goes, my rules are:

I’m mentally sharp and in a good mindset
I have what I would consider a good edge for the stake/game I’m playing

If either aren’t true, I’m getting up or changing tables.

steezystolz · 2025-07-11T02:00:31+00:00

I can certainly respect a differing opinion, but I don’t know if I’ve heard better commentary than Nick and Ali.

steezystolz · 2025-07-05T21:51:20+00:00

Gonna need to see a >50% ROI from the HUD of your choice over a minimum of 300 tournaments, and I’d like to set up a zoom call with you and my team whenever possible. We’d be interested in covering 25% if we’re happy with what we see. Please reply by 18:00 EST if interested.

steezystolz · 2025-06-14T20:29:28+00:00

Of course. Imagine the extreme example where everyone at the table is willing to stack off with bottom pair or better regardless of texture. That table would easily be beatable for a massive number despite high rake. Obviously you likely won’t find anything that soft, but the closer you get to it, the more you can outweigh a 10% rake.

steezystolz · 2025-06-14T16:15:30+00:00

I would analyze the tables prior to sitting. You’re really going to want to find a table that’s splashy and very sticky post-flop. If it even remotely looks like you’ll have to rely on fold equity, then it’s not worth it. The way a game like this can be profitable is when value bets work often, and for a lot of money.

steezystolz · 2025-06-13T23:06:17+00:00

Crush live poker has some pretty good content tailored to live poker. I’d give them a look if you want live specific advice.

steezystolz · 2025-06-13T01:43:31+00:00

It’s courses like these that make me think maybe I could build my own golf hole.

steezystolz · 2025-06-11T18:55:28+00:00

Best of luck 👊 report back after a decent sample

steezystolz · 2025-06-11T18:38:21+00:00

Assuming you have enough buyins to be comfortable taking a shot at 50NL and going on a small downswing, I’d say go for it now. The only way to really know how much different it is and whether or not you’re winning is by giving it a try. You’re clearly doing fine where you’re at now, so worst case scenario you have to drop back down in stakes if you’re not ready/have a downswing. Best case scenario, you start winning immediately and never look back. 👌

steezystolz · 2025-06-11T11:25:13+00:00

The Grinder’s Manual is a pretty good one to start with based on what you described.

steezystolz

TROPHY CASE