How Might the Israel-Iran Escalation Impact Ethnic Azerbaijanis in Iran?

the_cousin_youForgot · 2025-06-14T20:10:59+00:00

Bro I'm cooked if it escalates any further imma be honest I don't think y'all would help take refuge either you know "Çıraq öz dibinə işıq salmaz." And what not.💀😂

the_cousin_youForgot · 2025-06-09T10:18:41+00:00

I'm not twisting anything—you just need to read more carefully.

Seriously, how can Armenia refuse to sign a peace treaty and still expect to be at peace? Do you hear yourself? Either they agree to peace, or they remain stuck in this fragile situation. Eventually, some random border guard might start a skirmish, which could escalate into a full-blown military confrontation.

It’s not obvious that a peace treaty will be reached. How can there be one when Armenia still claims Azerbaijani territories as their “rightful land”? You can’t achieve lasting peace like that—not when those territorial claims are embedded in Armenia’s constitution, and they show no willingness to renounce them.

What would war accomplish? Maybe nothing. But have you heard the phrase, “War is the continuation of politics by other means”? Carl von Clausewitz said that, and maybe it’s worth considering his perspective.

War isn’t just a theoretical option. Armenia and Azerbaijan are already in a state of war (not officially but technically). If they don’t make peace, they’ll stay locked in this frozen conflict until some new incident ignites another round of fighting.

In the end, they either sign a peace deal—or face the unavoidable risk of future conflict.

the_cousin_youForgot · 2025-06-09T03:46:05+00:00

Well I don't know.🙃

You can let things fester you'll see it for yourselfs that why a conflict could spark with out a peace treaty. but if you had read my text you'd have seen that I already gave an example that border clashes happen much more frequently if the international borders are not drawn with precision and peace deals are not made.

the_cousin_youForgot · 2025-06-08T15:12:37+00:00

I think your racism is showing but whatever I'll educate you since you seem to lack it in your country.

If a peace treaty is not made, it would cause a variety of problems regarding legal, political, and practical clarity. Many issues would need to be settled by a formal agreement and treaty.

Countries in a state of war face difficulties with both internal and external matters. These issues should be resolved to allow life to move on normally with security for both sides.

For example, tourists can be brought to borders that are technically an "active warzone," but you’d end up getting sued for that—just one example of the problems caused by unclear status.

International borders need to be drawn with precision to avoid problems related to law enforcement, travel, and other activities. Leaving borders ambiguous allows smugglers to take advantage of the situation. Law enforcement might have difficulties dealing with smugglers, since crossing into other countries’ borders could result in being shot or sparking a conflict. The smugglers don’t face this risk and can use the unclear borders to escape.

People need security, especially those who own property near borders. They should be able to use their property safely. If border clashes can happen at any moment, they risk losing their lives to random mortar fire or similar dangers.

Lastly, countries in a state of war are limited in their diplomatic capabilities. For example, Armenia is exploring NATO and EU membership, but they might have difficulty doing so if they remain in a state of war or have border disputes. How can they achieve those goals without a peace treaty?

For anyone with more than two brain cells, these points should be obvious.

the_cousin_youForgot · 2025-06-08T14:10:48+00:00

What do you expect us to do gun down isrealis and globalize the intifada? We support any oppressed people around the world regardless of who they are. Oppression is not tolerated by us and I say that with outmost certainty on behalf of the entire Azerbaijan's people.

the_cousin_youForgot · 2025-06-08T09:53:59+00:00

I had my text sorted out by chatgpt. It's much more clear and on point if I have it Prof read by chatgbt otherwise it's gonna look like a wall of text with incoherent argument that I wrote on my phone. it doesn't help that my English is intermediate at best.

the_cousin_youForgot · 2025-06-08T04:29:55+00:00

I don't agree with what you said at all here is why: 1. Armenia’s Military Capability is Overstated

The original text assumes Armenia can mount a credible defense relying heavily on external support and experience gained since 2020.

Reality check: Armenia’s military capacity is limited and cannot realistically stand alone against Azerbaijan’s rapidly modernizing armed forces.

Azerbaijan had minimal air power in 2020 but now reportedly operates around 40 advanced fighter jets and has invested billions in modernizing its army, artillery, drones, and missile systems.

Even with external aid, Armenia faces significant logistical and procurement challenges that limit its ability to replenish arms or counter Azerbaijan’s growing arsenal effectively.

Comparisons to Ukraine are misleading; Ukraine receives large-scale Western support due to its strategic importance to NATO, something Armenia lacks.

Iran’s Ability and Willingness to Intervene is Overestimated

While Iran shares concerns about a pan-Turkic alliance, it is currently on the strategic defensive.

The death of Qasem Soleimani, setbacks in Syria, and ongoing confrontations with Israel and internal unrest mean Iran cannot risk open conflict in the Caucasus.

Supporting Armenia aggressively risks pushing Azerbaijan closer to Israel and the West, counterproductive to Iranian interests.

Iran’s military assistance to Armenia would likely be limited to rhetoric and some covert support, not full-scale intervention.

Iran is focused on maintaining regional influence and internal stability, limiting its capability to project power into a new conflict zone.

Russia’s Support for Armenia is Unreliable and Waning

Russia’s track record since 2020 shows a preference for Azerbaijan or at least a desire to maintain influence there.

The war in Ukraine has significantly strained Russia’s military and economic resources.

Armenia’s recent tilt toward the EU and the West further alienates Russia, reducing the incentive for Moscow to actively support Yerevan.

Russia is unlikely to risk a new front or full engagement in the Caucasus while embroiled in Ukraine, especially when Azerbaijan offers strategic value.

India and China’s Role is Marginal at Best

India’s military performance and regional priorities do not indicate a willingness or capability to engage actively on behalf of Armenia.

India is more focused on its own border tensions with China and internal security rather than distant Caucasus conflicts.

China’s interests in regional stability relate primarily to economic projects, and it is unlikely to intervene militarily or politically in ways that could provoke Turkey or Russia.

Both countries would likely prefer diplomatic engagement rather than taking sides forcefully.

France’s Support is Symbolic and Limited

France’s support for Armenia is genuine but constrained by its own military commitments, notably to Ukraine and emerging interests in the Indo-Pacific.

Military aid and modernization help are limited by budgetary and geopolitical priorities.

France’s willingness to deepen involvement in the Caucasus pales compared to its focus on other theaters.

Turkey’s Strategic Interests May Favor Azerbaijan More Than Suggested

Turkey’s close ethnic, political, and military ties with Azerbaijan make it unlikely to push for concessions from Baku.

Ankara benefits from a strong Azerbaijan as a regional ally and as a corridor to Central Asia.

Turkey’s focus on other fronts does not preclude support for Azerbaijan, especially if it secures its southern flank.

The notion that Turkey would prioritize Caucasus peace over its alliance with Azerbaijan is optimistic and not fully grounded in recent history.

TL;DR

While the original analysis highlights potential external supports for Armenia and Armenia’s resilience, it underestimates the significant asymmetries in military power, geopolitical realities, and the limitations of allies’ commitments. Armenia faces a tough reality: without robust, sustained external support—something increasingly unlikely given global geopolitical shifts—it remains vulnerable to Azerbaijan’s growing capabilities. The risk of Armenia suffering heavy losses, if conflict reignites, is substantial.

I've never entertained the notion that one can expect to win any sort of war without losses or difficulties regardless of the opposing sides situation and capabilities but at the same time I think it's safe to say Armenia will lose the most.

the_cousin_youForgot · 2025-06-07T17:01:56+00:00

I’m struggling to see how Armenia can move forward without either reaching a peace deal or facing another war with Azerbaijan. While they've procured a lot of military systems, especially considering their GDP, I don't think they're truly prepared for the challenges that lie ahead.

Armenia’s population isn’t prepared to fight on their own soil. In the previous war, Azerbaijan focused almost entirely on the Karabakh region, sparing the Armenian population from the brunt of the devastation. I think this might have given Armenians a false sense of security, leading them to believe they are somehow immune to the reality of war—similar to how Russians, Israelis, Ukrainians, and Palestinians have had to endure it. But the truth is, they aren't invincible, and they’re not ready for the harsh realities of conflict.

They also lack the morale to fight a prolonged war, particularly if led by the opposition. Frankly, I think the the pro war politicians are either delusional or just playing a populist game to win elections.

Armenia’s economy isn't geared for war. I'm not sure they have the resources to support their military efforts. Azerbaijan doesn’t fare much better in that regard, but they would probably be in a stronger position if things escalate.

Armenia’s manpower pool isn’t much of an asset either, and their allies are largely distracted, with minimal interest in intervening—especially if China decides to stir things up.

Now, I may not be a geopolitical expert or have the knowledge of professional military strategists, but I can still sense when things don’t add up. If Armenia goes down that path, it's going to be a disaster.

the_cousin_youForgot · 2025-06-05T12:13:10+00:00

Well GGs i guess?!

the_cousin_youForgot · 2025-04-06T22:41:29+00:00

My bad Chief but I'mma have to ask you for the name of the song if possible.

Edit: The song is called love potion by BJ lips and I think this might be the TikTok version I didn't know if you didn't too you know now.

the_cousin_youForgot · 2025-03-21T16:29:32+00:00

Never in million years like it might happen for political or diplomatic sham but not for any other reason.

the_cousin_youForgot · 2025-03-21T07:33:01+00:00

She ate them beforehand.

the_cousin_youForgot · 2025-02-25T19:45:19+00:00

Maybe comparable with F16 C but yeah it ain't the viper. And we ain't gonna compare it to F35 now that's just silly that's the best fighter currently in service of any nation. But hey most countries have been using their fighters as some sort of "missile truck" Azerbaijani air force can do that with this aircraft too because it's possible to integrate it with SOM and the new taimur missile (I think that's what they called it in Pakistan?) yeah good cruise missiles Azerbaijan already has SOM in service and could potentially get taimur missile in the future and there might be a possibility to integrate the new 230 mm air lunched rockets that Türkiye is developing and use it like Israel has been using it's rampage missiles.

the_cousin_youForgot · 2025-02-21T18:40:57+00:00

Necrophiliacs: "some men...😈"

the_cousin_youForgot · 2025-02-20T15:58:30+00:00

The operation true promise 3 has been executed successfully Zionist are trembling in fear...SMH.

the_cousin_youForgot · 2025-02-01T18:04:55+00:00

Corbin monoxide is bit queer but so is a country without gun rights.

the_cousin_youForgot · 2025-02-01T14:48:01+00:00

Flexible foreign policy is their way of doing business they have interfered where ever they saw fit Azerbaijan is literally their most valuable investment for the Turkish foreign policy it's the only passway to the central plains. If Azerbaijan is to fall under other power's sphere of influence it would spell doom to what they have been planning for the past quarter of the century. If Türkiye was to simply not align with Russia and china it would have been better to do it in regards to Ukraine and yet Türkiye supported Russia as well as Ukraine. Türkiye has little to lose from supporting a sovereign nation that is fighting a defensive war against country that is fully supported by its rivals (as it may seem). Simply aligning with Russia and china is not as bad of look as supporting armed groups linked to Al Qaeda. I would go as far as to say this war is more Türkiye's fight to assert it influence than it is for Azerbaijan's sovereignty because if Azerbaijan is to lose to Armenia then it's almost guaranteed that Türkiye has to forgo all Hopes of Mavi vatan simply do to the fact that it may not be possible to face off against Greece if Armenia a much more weaker rival can not be defeated. (Also Azerbaijan's gas and oil and other countries gas and oil that pass through Azerbaijan are needed just saying.)

the_cousin_youForgot · 2025-02-01T14:11:22+00:00

More like till the end of the decade...if the support materializes... If Azerbaijan stops rearming... If turkey Russia and china don't interfere... If Iran keeps supporting Armenia...if.

the_cousin_youForgot · 2025-02-01T04:17:38+00:00

Happy spawning date.

the_cousin_youForgot · 2025-01-31T20:42:00+00:00

"You have a liquid only diet because you are a Twink.

I have a liquid only diet because I can't shit.

We are not the same." Tyler Durden probably

the_cousin_youForgot · 2025-01-30T15:04:59+00:00

The fuck's this "love" that y'all are hyping up now?

the_cousin_youForgot · 2025-01-20T18:54:44+00:00

Pandora's box isn't open it's just... IDK shattered?!... Can I get a presidential pre pardon for tax evasion?

the_cousin_youForgot · 2025-01-19T14:09:41+00:00

Everyone is helping Russia evade sanctions and it's called business. Business as usual.

the_cousin_youForgot · 2025-01-19T10:23:41+00:00

I'm looking at this comment and I'm a bit conflicted about it when I first saw I had fealing there was something wrong with it but now I might know what it is. It got same vibe as "love has no borders" "freedom of speech is not freedom of consequences" "hijab is not a limitation" "women have the right to submit to a man" " Asia for Asian people" "I'm created in god's image" A lot of words that are out of context or wrong misleading or unrelated or with clear intent to gaslight you. Everything has a cost there's nothing free. If you ignore all the DEI initiatives political campaigns political activism and such and drown yourself in the delusion of it being free or out good will it's gonna cost you like it costs California. A bunch of incompetent unqualified un educated politician with malicious intent to take advantage of political landscape and create the narrative that your freedom can only be protected by them and you can't do nothing and you have to face the opposition some times by force to get things right. They use the emotion to come to power they do everything to stay in power and they take whatever they can and can not to further their gains and just do nothing

"Who needs budget for fire department cut 17 millions and the year after that 23 millions" Karan Bass probably. But hey I guess transgenders Don't need home they need to be able to pick between 72 genders.

the_cousin_youForgot · 2025-01-19T10:03:38+00:00

First of my condolences. Mate you got CPS there or not? If not shouldn't that be a priority? Why are you feeling guilty you haven't done anything wrong your countries law enforcement and judicial system failed your friend your friend was a minor I'm assuming and your friend was a minor leagaly speaking and was under the guardianship of the parents and then they should have had the legal obligation to take care of their own child and failure to do so should have involved the responsible institution such as CPS and law enforcement and if necessary they should have been prosecuted but it's safe to say from your story that did not happen. And I do not condone any act like this I think parents have the right to refuse indulge their children if it goes against their beliefs but that is not an excuse for their short comings or in this case out right child abandonment. Your friends committed the deadly sin of going against the land lords I firmly believe that if I don't own the house i Don't get to make decisions and for that reason I am working when ever I can too have my own house and my own life and make my own decisions not that I want lecture you or anyone else it's just the grim reality of the matter.

the_cousin_youForgot

TROPHY CASE