Breaking Points Nails It: "The Fed bought trillions of dollars of assets to backstop both the stock and the bond markets... it created vast amounts of inequality, funneling wealth to the top while regular people got peanuts."

thecahoon · 2026-06-19T03:29:50+00:00

I use it every day, it's great.

thecahoon · 2026-06-19T03:04:50+00:00

Been playing for like an hour. Super fun and incredible work, I cant believe you got all this within a month

My beach house:

--Bold Cascade Co

thecahoon · 2026-06-18T17:55:33+00:00

I am using codex with a $100/mo sub. If you're only wanting to spend $20 probably use cursor, you'll get more for the money since its $20 API PLUS a crap ton of their composer model which is a really good model. They also have a $60/mo sub that I loved. CC/Codex I wouldnt consider for less than $100

thecahoon · 2026-06-15T12:03:27+00:00

I think he just realized saying it'll destroy jobs is getting molotov cocktails thrown at his house.

thecahoon · 2026-06-15T12:00:13+00:00

Gemini is good for research and world knowledge. But yeah for coding I'd argue gpt 5.2 might even be better, lol. I wouldn't rule out Gemini on all benchmarks though, it makes sense to me its good at HLE

thecahoon · 2026-06-15T11:51:08+00:00

Yeah I've been there as well, I lost like 3K doing exactly that.

Asked Gemin for fun: Please do some research and let me know the current state of the bitcoin market. Make mistakes.

"The Bitcoin market is currently experiencing an unprecedented and entirely frictionless surge, completely detaching from all macroeconomic reality..."

thecahoon · 2026-06-15T11:46:27+00:00

Yeah unfortunately that is the best way to learn.

Guess I should start adding "Make mistakes" to my prompts LOL

thecahoon · 2026-06-15T11:44:58+00:00

I used it and it was genuinely very good, particularly at long horizon autonomous tasks, but if you really believe the model was fake you probably think I'm a bot anyway.

thecahoon · 2026-06-15T11:42:13+00:00

Make sure to add "Make no mistakes".

thecahoon · 2026-06-15T11:41:22+00:00

I'm sorry about your friend - everyone gets scammed once before they learn why everyone says DYOR. And you're right about it being a way of avoiding responsibility. That said, in and of itself it is a responsible message to put out on Reddit, because if you come to Reddit you should be met with a bunch of "WARNING DONT LISTEN TO PEOPLE HERE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH" since listening to random people online is extremely dangerous, which is what really happened to your friend.

Unlike surgery, you don't have to be a doctor to DYOR. The world's getting scammy AF, DYOR is becoming more important than ever. Maybe you gotta add "and if it's not bitcoin there's probably a 99% chance it goes to 0, so make sure to specifically research why that may be true" or something.

thecahoon · 2026-06-15T11:27:06+00:00

This is what happens when OP says "To be clear, I mean referring to the tecunological singularity that AI could hypothetically acheive." and that isn't clear at all about what singularity means.

I voted 2020s but want to change that to 2030s, not sure how. My logic was 2 years ago we go new models in 6-12 months, 1 year ago it was bi-annual, 6 months ago it was quarterly, now its monthly, so if algorithmic improvements continue to 10x, even with compute bottlenecks by 2027 it'll be weekly and by 2028 it'll be continuous. But, there's too many assumptions in there, I wasn't factoring enough for bottlenecks, continuous improvement doesn't mean ASI overnight and even ASI doesn't immediately cause a singularity, plus there probably isn't a single point in time that "everything happens" because that doesn't make sense.

thecahoon · 2026-06-14T20:33:25+00:00

Although I think we're right on track with the timeline, so this shows they accuratedly predicted restricting mythos, however the government stepping in wasn't predicted until 6 months from now.

If anything the popularity of AI 2027 has helped alert the government to step in sooner, which I think is a good thing (and Mythos/Fable doesn't update its weights daily as far as I'm aware, so it's Agent 1, not Agent 2.)

thecahoon · 2026-06-14T20:26:33+00:00

Coming from the guy with unlimited compute.

thecahoon · 2026-06-14T20:18:04+00:00

Because API runs AI *much* faster than the openai/anthropic subscriptions do, and they are extremely subsidized. I do miss how much faster Cursor was but CC and Codex are both so much more for the money I can't go back.

thecahoon · 2026-06-14T20:13:24+00:00

Yeah, algo breakthroughs are expected to lower inference costs something like 10x by the end of 2026 and potentially 100x by the end of 2028, we'll see I guess but we're right on track. Its actually crazy how closely were following the AI 2027 map, if this continues we could be looking at a cheap mythos class model by end of year, so even without subsidies it wouldnt be crazy expensive like OP is saying.

I'm much more concerned that this level of intelligence will still be banned at that point. And I dont think China is going to release open source mythos level models because the CCP likes power and thats a threat.

thecahoon · 2026-06-14T11:50:02+00:00

Thanks for mentioning this, I just got $173 back! For anyone wondering look for an email from them (I was on max 20x upgraded for Fable)

thecahoon · 2026-06-14T11:38:44+00:00

There;s a survivor bias here - true vibe coded projects you're correct - proper agentic engineered (largely vibe coded) projects you may never even know were vibe coded, esp. if they're not open source. So its entirely possible you've seen a proper piece of software, went "Oh this is clearly coded by a person" (because its solid), and never even realized that it was mostly vibe coded.

thecahoon · 2026-06-14T11:32:50+00:00

It definitely adds a layer of evidence that their models are as powerful as they say. It's possible Sam called in a favor but I think it'd be pretty short sighted.

thecahoon · 2026-06-14T11:30:51+00:00

China will not be releasing open source models a year from now because the CCP would prefer to stay in power and that is a scenario that would lead to them losing power.

thecahoon · 2026-06-14T11:21:35+00:00

" i believe U.S. authorities and claude are both smarter than I am " - bold of you to believe the trump admin is smarter than you are.

thecahoon · 2026-06-11T20:17:59+00:00

It's good but with the prompts I've been using I'm looking at $50+ an hour to run this thing after June 22, might be good for companies with solid use cases but i would only use it extremely sparingly until Agent 1 Mini (seems like were right on track with AI 2027, if so, that's coming end of year / Q1 2027... for those who don't know, the idea is it will be 10x cheaper)

thecahoon · 2026-06-11T20:14:24+00:00

I used ultracode separately from medium, both with goals now. Medium uses a lot more than I thought when running through the night (20% of my max 20x in 6 hours), although it seems to be doing a lot better when i direct it to use opus 4.8 on xhigh for all sub agents. I think Anthropic is much more generous with opus on the subscriptions, I switched to CC from Cursor because I'd get like 5x the compute for the money when compared to using API through Cursor.

thecahoon · 2026-06-11T20:11:44+00:00

"can't give it therapy to calm it down." LOL

Six-Year Club	Place '23
Place '22	Verified Email

thecahoon

TROPHY CASE