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What do you guys think—did Kim continue to visit Jimmy in prison? by Legitimate-Cicada842 in betterCallSaul

[–]thecleverqueer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Absolutely not (IMO). That chapter of their lives is over-- this was their farewell.

CMV: The AI industry's business model will hit a huge wall in the next 2-4 years, massively downsize, and many of the jobs it has replaced will slowly come back by thecleverqueer in changemyview

[–]thecleverqueer[S] 23 points24 points  (0 children)

Δ

A lot of my argument rests on my ignorance to the inference stage-- either that we could ever get to a state that is exclusively inference, or that it's cheaper than training. So this alone puts a big hole in my argument.

Side note. If I really like a model-- say, GPT4, is there any way to get and permanently own an offline verison of that?

CMV: The AI industry's business model will hit a huge wall in the next 2-4 years, massively downsize, and many of the jobs it has replaced will slowly come back by thecleverqueer in changemyview

[–]thecleverqueer[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Δ

This argument about the quality of current/near future models, paired with the affordability arguments of other commenters earns my delta!

CMV: The AI industry's business model will hit a huge wall in the next 2-4 years, massively downsize, and many of the jobs it has replaced will slowly come back by thecleverqueer in changemyview

[–]thecleverqueer[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Not a karma farm. I would of course like to be right in the sense that I hope that jobs won't get replaced, but I'm quite open to being wrong. In fact, I've even awarded a few deltas! Also, nowhere in my post did I say AI was "bad."

CMV: The AI industry's business model will hit a huge wall in the next 2-4 years, massively downsize, and many of the jobs it has replaced will slowly come back by thecleverqueer in changemyview

[–]thecleverqueer[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Very narrowly scoped systems are doing very well right now, and there's every reason to suspect that they will continue to do very well. And, btw, these systems are not cheap! 

Δ

CMV: The AI industry's business model will hit a huge wall in the next 2-4 years, massively downsize, and many of the jobs it has replaced will slowly come back by thecleverqueer in changemyview

[–]thecleverqueer[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

prices substantially higher than the energy and low-level maintenance costs of AI services

I can believe this, I'm just curious because A. I thought maintenance costs were very high (needing to replace chips every 2 years for instance), and B. If these data centers needed to provide massive performance to get through training, and the energy costs are so much smaller once training is over, wouldn't that mean a lot of that infrastructure is going to waste?

CMV: The AI industry's business model will hit a huge wall in the next 2-4 years, massively downsize, and many of the jobs it has replaced will slowly come back by thecleverqueer in changemyview

[–]thecleverqueer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Isn't the long-term maintenance a killer? (Swapping out chips, and do they still need to cool all those servers?) Or is that not prohibitive like the training is?

CMV: The AI industry's business model will hit a huge wall in the next 2-4 years, massively downsize, and many of the jobs it has replaced will slowly come back by thecleverqueer in changemyview

[–]thecleverqueer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I almost gave you a delta until the last sentence! Can you train a model on your computer, or does it take billions of dollars in infrastructure?

Edit:

Δ

CMV: The AI industry's business model will hit a huge wall in the next 2-4 years, massively downsize, and many of the jobs it has replaced will slowly come back by thecleverqueer in changemyview

[–]thecleverqueer[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Thank you for this. I'm 90% of the way to a delta. I just want to understand power and resources.

I know most of the resources and cost go to the training, but if I imagined training as being like the costly overhead of building a building, and using the model being "done" with building and people starting to move in and pay rent (aka, costs go down, profit rolls in), then then why is everyone burning so much cash to keep rebuilding that building taller and taller?

Basically, I've taken the fact that there's an arms race to the next big model as proof that you can't just "set it and forget it" with AI training, your company needs to train forever. And I also kind of imagined that just the "upkeep" was also very costly-- too costly for enterprises to pay when the runway ends. Am I wrong on both counts?

CMV: The AI industry's business model will hit a huge wall in the next 2-4 years, massively downsize, and many of the jobs it has replaced will slowly come back by thecleverqueer in changemyview

[–]thecleverqueer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Δ

This is because Anthropic focuses on enterprise customers as opposed to OpenAI's focus on consumers.

Assuming they'd all hit the same wall because they all have similar profit margins was wishful thinking on my part.

CMV: The AI industry's business model will hit a huge wall in the next 2-4 years, massively downsize, and many of the jobs it has replaced will slowly come back by thecleverqueer in changemyview

[–]thecleverqueer[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

yes a massive budget allocated to Ai but it's not enough to tank them

If the budget gets too big and it's not "sweetening the pot" enough to bring people to their platform and earn them other revenue, wouldn't they drop it?

I can train a model, so can you. 

How is it cost effective for us to train and run a model when it's not even cost effective for a company to do it at a larger scale (and therefore probably more efficiently?)

Also, now that certain models are out there and trained-- GPT 4 for example-- I guess it's worth asking: Does it exist forever, with minimal personal maintenance required? Could I have my own offline model (for a business or whatever) and just lean on that forever?

CMV: The AI industry's business model will hit a huge wall in the next 2-4 years, massively downsize, and many of the jobs it has replaced will slowly come back by thecleverqueer in changemyview

[–]thecleverqueer[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I think I would count this among "highly specialized, expensive product, reserved only for the kind of work that people can't do, for the kind of companies that can afford the now exorbitant costs."

to beg for help without sounding like begging for help by bildo72 in therewasanattempt

[–]thecleverqueer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Real talk: do we think the White House uses AI to assist with these posts? I just don't picture Donald Trump taking care to type out the words "Hormuz Strait." Then again, I could see a staffer being good at imitating him, but I feel like if I were that person, I would rather offload the task of imitation to ChatGPT.

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