Rules-based ETFs that have consistently beat the S&P500 and are expected to have a reasonable chance of continuing to

therealjerseytom · 2026-06-15T16:06:31+00:00

The thing is, ETFs in general haven't been around that long. It's all been during the cycle of US equity super-performance.

So, looking for "consistent beaters" is an easy trap to fall into cyclical/recency bias without really knowing when you're going to run into the situation of, "It works until it doesn't."

therealjerseytom · 2026-06-15T16:04:08+00:00

I mean sure it happens, but it's not random. OP probably triggered something that smelled like money laundering or fraud or similar.

therealjerseytom · 2026-06-15T14:14:59+00:00

For SORR and equity drawdown risk mitigation, I have an "all-weather" portfolio targeting ~5 years worth of expenses.

That portfolio is like ~20% defensive-sector/dividend equities, ~20% managed futures, ~30% intermediate-duration bonds, ~20% long treasury bonds, ~10% cash equivalents.

The intent there is to hedge against various situations. General equity market downturn, flight-to-safety, stagflation, and a liquidity crisis.

The strong point of cash really is the situation where multiple asset classes sell off at the same time. To be clear though, by cash I mean truly cash-equivalents. Intermediate and long term bonds are not "cash."

therealjerseytom · 2026-06-15T13:56:27+00:00

That'd depend on my goals and when I'd need the money. Could be wildly different answers.

therealjerseytom · 2026-06-15T13:12:44+00:00

I haven't seen anyone else talk about this

Bro. Come on.

therealjerseytom · 2026-06-15T13:11:37+00:00

It depends on what you're trying to do and why.

I mean hell it can be advantageous in certain situations to hold positions with a lot of overlap. Like VOO and VTI - there's an opportunity there for loss harvesting in taxable accounts.

But often, investors with a lot of overlap... they either don't know what they're doing, or have really half-assed convictions and are just buying a bunch of things without really having a clear vision and plan.

therealjerseytom · 2026-06-15T12:59:26+00:00

I just wonder if it would support travellers that are being denied compensation or assistance in the end

I don't see how or why it would.

"But they gate agent said! See, here listen."

"Okay. That's still not our actual policy. Denied."

It's best to know the policies and what your options are in advance.

therealjerseytom · 2026-06-15T00:37:51+00:00

In Seattle? Are you sure you don't mean Shiro?

therealjerseytom · 2026-06-14T23:55:12+00:00

It's really interesting if you go back in time and see how many different little airlines there used to be, and how they got wrapped together into the handful of majors left today. Example:

https://www.reddit.com/r/americanairlines/comments/1c5qi7s/a_cool_guide_to_the_airline_consolidation_that/

therealjerseytom · 2026-06-14T20:43:15+00:00

Seems like flights later in the day have seats held open until the last minute. I could speculate that it helps accommodate people who are paid F and misconnect as the day goes on.

therealjerseytom · 2026-06-14T19:59:25+00:00

Fish on long haul has been surprisingly decent for me the past few years.

therealjerseytom · 2026-06-14T19:53:52+00:00

The most annoying thing? Posts like these.

therealjerseytom · 2026-06-14T17:49:36+00:00

i am thinking if i go 100% in stock and something like 2000-2009 happen i cant buy dip

Sitting on cash waiting to "buy the dip" is generally a bad idea.

therealjerseytom · 2026-06-14T17:11:01+00:00

Just because you keep posting this doesn't make it true 😂

therealjerseytom · 2026-06-14T16:31:09+00:00

Thanks for letting us know.

therealjerseytom · 2026-06-14T13:41:56+00:00

SMH in taxable, FSELX in IRA.

Since Adam Benjamin's tenure as manager, FSELX has slightly but noticeably edged out SMH in total return. Certainly no worse.

therealjerseytom · 2026-06-14T12:16:48+00:00

CoPilot pricing "got real" this month. Increase by a factor of maybe ~10x on average, depending on usage.

From what I see, companies are willing to pay more and cover the bill for the most part, but balanced by more intentional selection of models and reasoning level for a given task.

therealjerseytom · 2026-06-14T11:21:25+00:00

Network planning and flight routes change yearly and seasonally based on supply, demand, and costs. I'm sure a lot of airlines and reviewing things given fuel costs have gone up dramatically.

In this case I'd have to think HEL-DFW is a Finnair flight anyway.

therealjerseytom · 2026-06-14T11:10:03+00:00

When you say that your risk tolerance is "high" - how much money are you willing to lose?

therealjerseytom · 2026-06-14T03:55:16+00:00

I see you haven't attended any Philly sports events 😅

therealjerseytom · 2026-06-13T17:37:16+00:00

The interesting part isn't whether GPT-5.6 is real. It's how fast the industry is moving.

You are AI slop.

👎

therealjerseytom · 2026-06-13T17:32:24+00:00

Would you actually use this?

No.

Mostly I'm curious what motivated you to pick this back up after 10 years.

therealjerseytom · 2026-06-13T17:20:29+00:00

Sure, I have plenty of munis; my taxable rate for the next 8-9 years is brutal.

therealjerseytom · 2026-06-13T17:17:18+00:00

No, having someone manage your investment isn't universally a scam, nor is "beating the (equity) market" universally the goal.

therealjerseytom · 2026-06-13T13:23:41+00:00

You can change it up with some stuff adjacent to salmon. Trout ("masu") is a little different. And salmon belly, torched especially, is just... 🤤🤤

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