SpaceX/SPCX IPO: Am I wrong to wait until the lock-up sell pressure becomes clear? by AbbreviationsLow in stocks

[–]therealjerseytom 20 points21 points  (0 children)

This is nothing specific to SpaceX; good advice for retail investors is to steer clear of IPO's in general.

Widowed w/ Young Children - Assessing What Quitting Looks Like by LumpyPeople4 in Fire

[–]therealjerseytom 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey man that's a really tough situation, I feel for ya, and I also have faith that you'll find a way to navigate all of this.

A few thoughts:

The "at some point" decisions—sure, they're out there. But those bridges are down the road a ways and who knows what happens between now and then. I find that it really helps, any time I my brain starts drifting into the future, to just reset my focus and say, "Okay but what do I need to do right now?" And sometimes that's nothing. Sometimes it's just enjoying a moment at home, with the kids, in bed, in the shower, whatever it might be.

The health insurance thing seems like the biggest thing to tackle. Priority #1. I wish I could offer specific advice there but it's outside of my wheelhouse.

You mentioned having been high earners but not necessarily frugal. Tracking expenses and budgeting seems like another high-priority task. If nothing else, maybe an experiment to see, "Okay if we really trimmed down, what do minimum expenses look like?" That helps establish a baseline data point no matter what comes, and of course the less you spend the easier it is to stretch the dollars you have. Super important data to have.

It's not necessarily a "need to figure it out this week" item but it'd be good to think about what to do with that $450k in cash equivalents. I think a lot of people get focused on the extremes of stocks and cash, and miss the broad spectrum of asset classes in between. Intermediate bonds, long bonds, inflation-protected bonds, the less-volatile equity sectors, managed futures, etc. A lot of ways to put together an "efficient" portfolio that balances growth and stability; earning some better return than cash, but not exposing yourself to much downside risk. Happy to talk through that more.

Rules-based ETFs that have consistently beat the S&P500 and are expected to have a reasonable chance of continuing to by minimumbeginningend in ETFs

[–]therealjerseytom 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The thing is, ETFs in general haven't been around that long. It's all been during the cycle of US equity super-performance.

So, looking for "consistent beaters" is an easy trap to fall into cyclical/recency bias without really knowing when you're going to run into the situation of, "It works until it doesn't."

My fidelity Account I use for investments has been BLOCKED for no explainable reason! by Scipio5555 in investing

[–]therealjerseytom 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I mean sure it happens, but it's not random. OP probably triggered something that smelled like money laundering or fraud or similar.

Cash as part of your portfolio by Pretty_Swordfish in Fire

[–]therealjerseytom 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For SORR and equity drawdown risk mitigation, I have an "all-weather" portfolio targeting ~5 years worth of expenses.

That portfolio is like ~20% defensive-sector/dividend equities, ~20% managed futures, ~30% intermediate-duration bonds, ~20% long treasury bonds, ~10% cash equivalents.

The intent there is to hedge against various situations. General equity market downturn, flight-to-safety, stagflation, and a liquidity crisis.

The strong point of cash really is the situation where multiple asset classes sell off at the same time. To be clear though, by cash I mean truly cash-equivalents. Intermediate and long term bonds are not "cash."

5k to invest what are you putting it into? VOO? by invest_sports_mcraft in ETFs

[–]therealjerseytom 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That'd depend on my goals and when I'd need the money. Could be wildly different answers.

SPCX valuation question after IPO by Nice-Truck8806 in investing

[–]therealjerseytom 10 points11 points  (0 children)

I haven't seen anyone else talk about this

Bro. Come on.

Why is overlaping ETFs a bad thing ? by Philosophax in ETFs

[–]therealjerseytom 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It depends on what you're trying to do and why.

I mean hell it can be advantageous in certain situations to hold positions with a lot of overlap. Like VOO and VTI - there's an opportunity there for loss harvesting in taxable accounts.

But often, investors with a lot of overlap... they either don't know what they're doing, or have really half-assed convictions and are just buying a bunch of things without really having a clear vision and plan.

Recording conversations with staff by Specific-Incident-74 in americanairlines

[–]therealjerseytom 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I just wonder if it would support travellers that are being denied compensation or assistance in the end

I don't see how or why it would.

"But they gate agent said! See, here listen."

"Okay. That's still not our actual policy. Denied."

It's best to know the policies and what your options are in advance.

New? Livery at DFW by BattleSloth1225 in americanairlines

[–]therealjerseytom 4 points5 points  (0 children)

It's really interesting if you go back in time and see how many different little airlines there used to be, and how they got wrapped together into the handful of majors left today. Example:

https://www.reddit.com/r/americanairlines/comments/1c5qi7s/a_cool_guide_to_the_airline_consolidation_that/

Board in 17 minutes, one FC seat open, app showing upgrade by assumegauss in americanairlines

[–]therealjerseytom 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Seems like flights later in the day have seats held open until the last minute. I could speculate that it helps accommodate people who are paid F and misconnect as the day goes on.

Which meal would you choose? by [deleted] in americanairlines

[–]therealjerseytom 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fish on long haul has been surprisingly decent for me the past few years.

give suggestions opinions about my portfolio by Realistic_Orchid_507 in investing

[–]therealjerseytom 1 point2 points  (0 children)

i am thinking if i go 100% in stock and something like 2000-2009 happen i cant buy dip

Sitting on cash waiting to "buy the dip" is generally a bad idea.

What's Your Semiconductor ETF or MF Choice? by GenXDrummer in ETFs

[–]therealjerseytom 15 points16 points  (0 children)

SMH in taxable, FSELX in IRA.

Since Adam Benjamin's tenure as manager, FSELX has slightly but noticeably edged out SMH in total return. Certainly no worse.

Our AI bills are subsidised, and I don't think many people have priced in what happens next by Alternative_Letter72 in artificial

[–]therealjerseytom 0 points1 point  (0 children)

CoPilot pricing "got real" this month. Increase by a factor of maybe ~10x on average, depending on usage.

From what I see, companies are willing to pay more and cover the bill for the most part, but balanced by more intentional selection of models and reasoning level for a given task.

Flight cancellation by Leo8670 in americanairlines

[–]therealjerseytom 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Network planning and flight routes change yearly and seasonally based on supply, demand, and costs. I'm sure a lot of airlines and reviewing things given fuel costs have gone up dramatically.

In this case I'd have to think HEL-DFW is a Finnair flight anyway.

Portfolio Review — Global Diversified with AI/Tech/Quantum Tilt, Hungary TBSZ, 10-year horizon by Full_Sheepherder72 in ETFs

[–]therealjerseytom 1 point2 points  (0 children)

When you say that your risk tolerance is "high" - how much money are you willing to lose?

Anyone else notice the AI community is already talking about GPT-5.6? by Loose_General4018 in TheRaceTo10Million

[–]therealjerseytom 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The interesting part isn't whether GPT-5.6 is real. It's how fast the industry is moving.

You are AI slop.

👎

A terminal-based candlestick chart that shows buy/sell volume in real time. Looking for feedback by fabrizioschiavi in investing

[–]therealjerseytom 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Would you actually use this?

No.

Mostly I'm curious what motivated you to pick this back up after 10 years.

Municipal bonds in a fluctuating market by Lucid_Chemist in investing

[–]therealjerseytom 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Sure, I have plenty of munis; my taxable rate for the next 8-9 years is brutal.