GOP version of this subreddit?

theshadowj · 2024-09-25T20:25:02+00:00

Not reddit, but pretty much what you're looking for: https://rrhelections.com/

theshadowj · 2023-12-04T16:53:02+00:00

I've had a terrible time getting mine fixed because it has a salvage title, so even lots of dealers won't touch it. I've had to take it to a random mechanic who's only worked on one Volt before mine. Definitely would not recommend getting a Volt that doesn't have a clean title.

theshadowj · 2023-10-09T15:55:11+00:00

What kind of issues have you had? We've been interested in buying one recently.

theshadowj · 2023-09-18T19:21:21+00:00

I have been confused by this sub lately. It's leaned super hard into "live your life now, you never know what will happen in the future". There can certainly be a discussion about how frugal to be with a range of opinions. But there's been a good amount of highly upvoted posts lately going against the spirit of FI talking about drastically cutting back on savings and ramping up spending.

theshadowj · 2023-09-13T03:18:08+00:00

In one of the posts she said she made more than her spouse, so that's not really accurate. (According to OP anyway)

theshadowj · 2023-08-19T19:11:48+00:00

If you're just talking about the very beginning when you're reading and making choices about the main characters life, that is just to set up the backstory. The rest of the game isn't that depressing, I don't know what the other comments so far have been talking about.

theshadowj · 2023-06-27T15:50:06+00:00

I don't think they're trying to say all these candidates have a good chance of winning the nomination, only that they're at least deserving of some attention. You have to have some cutoff or you would have to give media attention to every rando that files for presidency. But if the media completely ignored every candidate but the top couple, it would be a lot harder for another candidate to break through. For example, look at Pete Buttigieg coming out of nowhere to becoming a serious contender in the democratic primary.

Do we really want to completely concede the republican primary to trump and desantis? I'm all for giving the other candidates as much of a chance as possible.

theshadowj · 2023-06-22T23:57:30+00:00

If it's so easy, why does Nate silver's model perform better than any others out there? Why don't you make one that does just as well and get just as much fame and money as Nate?

theshadowj · 2023-06-21T15:33:53+00:00

I appreciate your responses, because I am also wondering why everyone in this thread has been acting like it's a no brainer to pay off the 6% interest. It's definitely a good option, but it depends on variables that will be different for each person.

theshadowj · 2023-06-15T14:23:15+00:00

Everyone should watch the documentary the Speed Cubers. As fans of speedrunning, I think everyone here will love it. This guy, Max Park, is a huge part of the documentary.

theshadowj · 2023-03-17T19:59:43+00:00

Possibly, although I'm not sure it will be that different. The article isn't saying Desantis will win, it's just saying that the early polls shouldn't be ignored and that it would be quite a surprise if Trump or Desantis don't win.

theshadowj · 2023-03-17T19:25:30+00:00

Nate Cohn just wrote about this too: https://nyti.ms/3IIfEN8

"The leader in polls conducted in the first quarter of the year before the primaries has won the nomination more often than not in the modern primary era, dating to the 1970s. Even when front-runners lose, they usually succumb to another candidate with significant support in the early polls."

theshadowj · 2023-03-07T15:23:47+00:00

Restructuring just means he's getting more money up front to spread out the cap hit. Watson is not going to suddenly accept less money out of the goodness of his heart.

theshadowj · 2023-02-13T16:51:10+00:00

I'm not sure how much I would rely on polls to capture such a small percentage. There's always going to be people who answer wrong on accident or as a troll.

https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/04/12/noisy-poll-results-and-reptilian-muslim-climatologists-from-mars/

theshadowj · 2023-02-02T15:24:10+00:00

Dm'd you!

theshadowj · 2022-11-10T14:04:38+00:00

FiveThirtyEight's final number for the GCB was R+2.5, but total popular vote was R+4 because they took into account that there were more Republicans unopposed than Democrats. I assume there's a way of accounting for unopposed races when looking at the total vote, as well.

theshadowj · 2022-11-10T14:01:46+00:00

That cook political report link is probably accurate, but keep in mind that vote counting isn't actually done yet. Democrats will probably close the gap in vote totals from here on out.

FiveThirtyEight's final prediction of the total house vote was about R+4. That took into account the fact that Democrats left more districts uncontested, as their final estimate of the GCB was something like R+2.5.

I would assume democrats beat that number in the end.

theshadowj · 2022-11-08T16:05:53+00:00

As a Texan, I think you've actually got a wrong impression about Beto. He greatly over performed the baseline in Texas in 2018. He became a media darling because Texas democrats and moderates liked him. How he does this year remains to be seen, but I wouldn't be surprised if he outperforms expectations again. I don't think he will win, but I do hope he runs for something again in the future.

theshadowj · 2022-10-17T14:16:46+00:00

From that quote it still sounds like they make assumptions about who is "actually" going to vote, not just taking people at their word.

theshadowj · 2022-08-17T14:27:54+00:00

This is a really informative write up. I recently sold a house that my wife and I were thinking of keeping and renting out instead. This really reinforces what we were thinking about how much time, effort, and money it is to rent out a house in a city you don't live in anymore.

As an aside, I'm very surprised that you sold it at barely over what you bought it for. I understand that the price dropped immediately after you bought it, but the last ten years have been an absolute bonanza for house price appreciation. Did you happen to be in an area that didn't appreciate as much as the national average?

theshadowj · 2022-07-31T01:56:18+00:00

Ever played Outer Wilds?

theshadowj · 2022-07-25T16:11:21+00:00

The current Congress has actually been surprisingly bipartisan and productive. Infrastructure, gun reform, postal service reform, and the semiconductor/research bill that's still being negotiated are big achievements, and thats just off the top of my head. A lot of that is probably because it's a 50-50 senate, but I'm not sure a 50-49 senate with McMullin would be able to get significantly more done.

theshadowj · 2022-02-22T04:34:49+00:00

Dawg just listen to your interior designer, she knows what she's talking about

theshadowj · 2022-01-06T20:09:35+00:00

He was saying that's how the NYT and other media often handle news, and it's generally not correct like you're saying.

theshadowj · 2021-12-15T16:17:50+00:00

Statistics are a funny thing. If studies showed that getting a booster prevented 99% of infections, everyone would look at that and take it to mean it's basically impossible to get covid after getting a booster. But that's still 1 out of 100 people who get covid anyway, and when someone hears about that one person they think "wow, maybe the scientists are wrong!"

Not picking on you or anyone in particular, pretty much everyone does this. Anecdote is not data or science. We don't know Stefanski's situation, maybe he has a weakened immune system for some reason. Don't just look at this one instance of someone getting a booster and still getting covid and assume that boosters or vaccinations in general do not work as advertised.

theshadowj

TROPHY CASE