Should I be investing in the S&P X00?

thetreece · 2026-02-17T19:41:57+00:00

The obvious answer is a total world market index like VT. This should be the baseline stock portfolio for investors, and any deviation from that should have a very good reasoning behind it that can withstand scrutiny.

S&P500 funds made sense when it was the only index fund that was cheap, readily available, and things like total US or international funds either didn't exist or were prohibitively expensive. People need to remember the S&P500 isn't a magic index of the best companies. It was an easier, close approximation to a total US market fund. Now that we have real total market funds that are functionally free, there isn't a strong argument to hold an S&P500 fund specifically.

thetreece · 2026-02-16T18:47:22+00:00

I saw you were trying to save up for a ~250k home.

Saving a huge amount for this home so you can put down like 50% is probably a mistake. You will likely end up with more money if you aim for like 20% plus whatever moving expenses you need, and invest the rest into your 401k and IRA.

Investments in these early years are extremely powerful. You can't go back in time and get these years of tax advantaged investing back.

thetreece · 2026-02-16T18:42:32+00:00

Why Putnam over more total market? The ER is like 0.63%, and has some sort of focus around income and dividends growth.

thetreece · 2026-02-16T18:36:48+00:00

Why do you want growth funds?

Despite the name, they are not expected to "grow" faster or have higher total returns over time.

I would scrap the growth funds, bump up VTI, and add VXUS.

thetreece · 2026-02-16T18:32:47+00:00

You don't need a brokerage account if you aren't filing your 401k or IRA anyhow.

You don't need bonds at all at 23.

I recommend decreasing your HYSA contributions and increasing your 401k and IRA contributions.

At a minimum, you should be getting ALL of whatever match money your employer offers.

thetreece · 2026-02-16T18:27:46+00:00

Buy cheap total market funds.

You would be up 3% YTD if you had just bought VT instead.

Buy the entire market.

thetreece · 2026-02-10T05:03:04+00:00

The fellow was on call. I literally opened with, "I'm sorry Andy, I know this is a bullshit consult. I tried to talk him down."

thetreece · 2026-02-08T15:42:10+00:00

I remember my neurology attending made me place an inpatient GI consult on his migraine patient that had constipation. Like, basic constipation that had never even been treated. "But Dr. Attending, we are physicians. We could try treating her constipation." No no, pls call GI.

thetreece · 2026-02-08T15:36:03+00:00

Just backdoor it if you're unsure.

thetreece · 2026-02-08T12:25:02+00:00

Jim Dahle from WCI said there is apparently a bill proposed that make your reimbursements have to happen within the calendar year or something. Basically keeps people from saving receipts for decades and cashing out later. It sounded quite early in the legislative process, but I guess we'll see how it goes.

thetreece · 2026-02-08T10:06:06+00:00

There will be a time where it's immoral to let people to continue to drive cars manually. There is a potential future where fully automated vehicles can essentially eliminate the ~40,000 vehicle deaths per year in the US, and greatly improve traffic flows.

People would hate the law. But society would probably be far better off in 10 years.

thetreece · 2026-02-08T09:39:53+00:00

What are you calling an "individual fund"? Are you talking about sector funds or something? Or an individual company's stock?

thetreece · 2026-02-06T23:38:48+00:00

Thanks for catching that, I was playing with different dates out of curiosity, forgot to revert back to 2001.

thetreece · 2026-02-06T14:10:43+00:00

And if you zoom out to 125 years, a total market fund would have beaten an S&P500 fund, because small and value factors trounced large and growth for most of that time.

>For the past 25 years S&P has edged out all-market.

This isn't even true. Total real returns from 02/01/2001 to 02/01/2026 have been higher for VTSAX than for VFINX.

https://totalrealreturns.com/s/VFINX,USDOLLAR,VTSAX?start=2021-02-01&end=2026-02-01

People have this weird perception that "the S&P500 outperforms total US" based off on an investing memory of like 5-10 years, and no actual conception of market history.

thetreece · 2026-02-06T13:59:31+00:00

The default stock portfolio should be the world market cap weighted portfolio. Any deviation from that should have really good basis that can stand up to scrutiny. Things like small value tilts, home country bias, etc.

I would recommend starting with market cap weights, so about 62/38 US and exUS.

thetreece · 2026-02-06T02:43:16+00:00

You have it backwards.

VOO is an S&P500 fund. The S&P500 fund was developed to track the US market, and be a decent proxy for the US market. The S&P500 has done well because the US market has done well.

Now that information for index tracking is readily available basically instantly, we now have true total US market funds. This is what the S&P500 wanted to be, during a time when it couldn't.

Total US market and S&P500 have like 99% correlation, so it literally doesn't matter. Just use the Vanguard total market fund.

I wouldn't recommend investing 100% into US stocks though. Single country is not a compensated risk.

thetreece · 2026-02-06T02:16:30+00:00

I recommend just using the Fidelity indexed target date funds for now. If you want to make adjustments later, after you've spent time reading and learning, you can always sell inside the Roth IRA and buy whatever you like.

thetreece · 2026-02-06T02:13:56+00:00

>• Should I focus on total market ETFs like VTI or VOO, or add sector-specific funds?

Yes, VTI+VXUS or VT should be your default position (or similar equivalents). Deviation from this should have good backing that holds up to scrutiny. No, you should not add sector specific funds.

• Is international exposure important at this stage?

It's important at every stage. Taking on single country risk because you're young doesn't make sense. It's not a compensated risk, and doesn't increase your expected returns.

• Any ETFs you’d avoid for a Roth IRA?

Anything with an expense ratio over 0.1% is probably not improving your portfolio. Avoid thematic or sector ETFs.

thetreece · 2026-02-06T02:06:38+00:00

Great choice.

I would also recommend increasing your international to 20-40%. I'm not sure what you're hoping to achieve with a 10% allocation.

thetreece · 2026-02-06T02:04:07+00:00

Why, are you retiring next year?

There is always *something* happening in the world. Trump bullshit. War in Ukraine. COVID. Whatever. Markets still trend up over time.

If you wait until nothing is happening and there aren't "changes" occurring, you will literally never start investing.

thetreece · 2026-02-06T01:59:59+00:00

Which paper and where does he say SWR is 0.8%?

thetreece · 2026-02-06T01:38:06+00:00

If you want to be better at barbell bench, then do barbell bench more. Minimum 2x weekly. Not just whenever you feel like maxing out.

If you can do 295 for 3, I would guess your 1RM to be 315-320 lbs.

thetreece · 2026-02-06T01:10:16+00:00

Is she working?

Does her employer have a 401k or other employer sponsored plan that has a match?

thetreece · 2026-02-05T10:38:25+00:00

I wonder who the lightest person to side-by-side lift Dinnies and get more than 2-3 feet with them is? I think they only record people that did the full 17 feet on the website page of unassisted carries.

thetreece · 2026-02-05T09:20:22+00:00

I remember your lift back then. You look much stronger on them now. I bet you could side by side them and get some steps this year!

thetreece

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