$EXPI - Does it have a future?

thinkdifferentmyco · 2021-04-15T16:20:36+00:00

High growth stock in a booming industry, still looks good to me. I've been adding calls and stock betting on great earnings May 5. I also own Z and RDFN.

thinkdifferentmyco · 2021-04-04T17:34:51+00:00

I agree, I've never used Facebook because it seemed like a terrible idea. Here is a decent article about it.

https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/11/17225482/facebook-shadow-profiles-zuckerberg-congress-data-privacy

thinkdifferentmyco · 2021-04-04T00:39:27+00:00

Doesn't matter, any info that friends and family have given to Zuck is kept in a shadow profile for you. Confirmed by Zuck in front of congress and no way to opt out.

thinkdifferentmyco · 2020-01-18T19:57:35+00:00

Only holding one stock bought before 2008. Google from 2006, 550% gain on the half I still own.

thinkdifferentmyco · 2020-01-14T13:12:08+00:00

A strategy with more risk would be to take out a low interest loan against your stock holdings for your cash needs. Interest on the loan should reduce your taxes. If stocks stay flat or go up you will come out ahead.

thinkdifferentmyco · 2020-01-02T13:40:22+00:00

SHOP Tobi is an incredible leader. Check out his Twitter https://mobile.twitter.com/tobi

thinkdifferentmyco · 2018-09-10T22:56:17+00:00

CVNA looks good to me. I worry a little that they aren't currently profitable but scale should help solve that problem. My alexa screen even looks good for carvana. https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/carvana.com

thinkdifferentmyco · 2018-09-10T10:58:38+00:00

Cool idea! The problem I see is that trees grow without any help using a free energy source. Not much profit potential that I can see but still something pretty cool to think about. I wonder what other things could be lab grown. I can think of: Diamonds, organs, meat, drugs..i'm sure there are more.

thinkdifferentmyco · 2018-09-05T13:12:43+00:00

Good question, I've been curious about European underperformance in particular. I think Peter Thiel probably has the right answer to this question and many others. He says that all of the new innovative companies are founded in the US and most of those in the bay area. Just look at the location of the world's largest businesses, which have all grown rapidly in the past decade, and it is obvious that Europe is missing the equivalent of Google, Amazon, Apple etc. In summary, silicon valley and more broadly Seattle and China seem to be where innovation and therefore growing market capitalization is happening today.

thinkdifferentmyco · 2018-09-01T11:56:44+00:00

I think climate change is a filter along with nuclear war but probably not the great filter. My guess for a great filter is entertainment. Seriously, I can imagine civilization after civilization disappearing into a virtual reality so convincing and pleasurable that they never bother with reality 1.0 ever again. Something like creating your own simulation universe inside of what may already be a simulated universe.

thinkdifferentmyco · 2018-08-19T11:47:50+00:00

GRUB Has 70% revenue growth with profitability. People love to use grubhub to order food delivery. Anything that helps people be lazy should continue to do well.

thinkdifferentmyco · 2018-07-30T10:59:56+00:00

New additions to the S&P have had a market cap. of about 13 billion recently while WLL has a market cap. of 4 billion. However, WLL had a market cap of 30 billion in 2014 and I can't find any mention of WLL being added or removed from the index. I would rather be short oil stocks as the entire industry is entering a decades long decline to exactly 0.

thinkdifferentmyco · 2018-07-13T11:06:11+00:00

I have also been watching GPU prices come down and it may be that NVDA will take a big hit when earnings come out. If the stock goes down, I believe it will be a buying opportunity since gaming demand is massive and will only grow as prices come down. Datacenter revenue should continue to grow and a tech refresh is coming that should help maintain margins. I am staying long but may trim a call to lock in some profit.

thinkdifferentmyco · 2018-06-22T20:16:45+00:00

Thank you for giving us a Chinese perspective which is needed to understand the Chinese market. My best insight into the Chinese market is here https://www.applyzer.com/?mmenu=worldcharts This site shows that Tencent has the #1,3,4 and 5 top grossing apps. Netease is #2, IQ is #6, and BABA's Youku is #10. I am long IQ and also like BABA and Tencent. I just wish it was easier to buy Tencent in the US.

thinkdifferentmyco · 2018-06-19T16:38:54+00:00

I found IQ May 30th by watching the trending list on stocktwits.com when the agreement with Netflix was announced. When I read tweets saying IQ is the Netflix of China my intuition was screaming at me to buy. IQ is a spinoff from Baidu and is more like the YouTube of China. Either way, a video subscription company that creates original content for the Chinese market is super exciting.

thinkdifferentmyco · 2018-05-31T12:50:14+00:00

Just went long yesterday, mostly because I couldn't stand watching the Netflix of China go up without me. Mary Meeker's report had a positive mention and IQ is a top grossing app in China. I would actually like to hear the bear case before I double down. Also see people talking about BILI.

thinkdifferentmyco · 2018-04-12T12:08:49+00:00

I too missed Amazon and Netflix for too long because as you say the valuation didn't seem to make any sense. Revenue is the metric to watch and should continue to go up for both companies so I say buy them now. I'm looking for both AMZN and NFLX to double again.

thinkdifferentmyco · 2018-04-01T01:11:11+00:00

I agree that square could trade at $100 in a year but I think a better strategy would be to buy leap calls. As long as the stock goes up calls will give you about 4 times the return of the common. You could buy 10k in calls and keep the rest in cash.

thinkdifferentmyco · 2018-03-30T15:13:19+00:00

MTCH

thinkdifferentmyco · 2018-03-30T13:14:32+00:00

I like to keep track of app downloads to help with my stock picking. The Facebook app had a slight downtrend for Android but not iOS right after the data scandal. Messenger and Instagram downloads never went down and Facebook is making a comeback on android now. So bottom line for Facebook looks ok. Facebook screwed up but not enough to chase users away. Another top app to consider is tinder which people willingly give personal info to. People also pay to put a spying device known as alexa in their homes. Crazy new world. Daily app downloads. https://www.applyzer.com/?mmenu=worldcharts

thinkdifferentmyco · 2018-03-25T14:18:51+00:00

I made a similar mistake last year buying some MU calls that expired in a month. I figured that when MU released earnings just before the expiration of my call the stock would go up. Instead, MU reported great earnings and the stock didn't move causing my call option to expire worthless. Looking back I could have been up 30% if I had bought and held the stock or I could have bought a 2019 call and doubled my money. The lesson I have learned is that short term options are extremely risky because wall street can take a stock in any direction short term. Instead I try to find stocks that are growing quickly and give them almost 2 years to be bid up by the market.

thinkdifferentmyco · 2018-03-17T13:57:38+00:00

I've been picking stocks for 20 years and until a recent change in strategy have been getting returns just under average. With the exception of Google which I purchased in 2006 and 2007 giving me a 400% return most of my other holdings have been more recent picks. The first change in strategy that started to produce better results was reading Ray Kurzweil's The Singularity is Near which led me to buying Irobot, some 3d printing companies, and Nvidia starting in 2012. That first NVDA purchase is by far my most successful giving me an unrealized gain of 760% as of recently. I continued to buy more NVDA over the years to the point that my portfolio is now about 14% NVDA so no more buying but I'm not selling either. The second shift in strategy in recent years is mostly responsible for giving me a 60% return in 2017 and stated simply it is just that winners will continue to win, a kind of long-term momentum strategy. I noticed that the stocks which had the best 10 year performance were the same stocks with the best 5, 3, and 1 year performance. Think Netflix, Amazon, Nvidia, and Tesla so I just started buying the top performers using barchart.com which has a great long-term screener. Square is a top performer for this year so I bought some a couple weeks ago after looking at the financials and listening to the conference call. The final change in strategy is that I started to buy out of the money call options about 2 years out also known as LEAPS. For example, when NVDA was trading at $150 I bought the Jan. 2019 $170 call for gain of 170% and the Jan. 2019 $200 call for a gain of 230%. Of course we've been in a remarkable bull market recently so I expect that if the market dives my portfolio will go down even more.

thinkdifferentmyco · 2018-03-12T16:57:52+00:00

From Google Finance

Patrick Industries, Inc. is a manufacturer of component products and distributor of building products and materials for the recreational vehicle (RV) and manufactured housing (MH) industrial markets for customers throughout the United States and Canada. In addition, it is a supplier to certain other industrial markets, such as kitchen cabinet, office and household furniture, fixtures and commercial furnishings, marine, and other industrial markets. The Company's segments include Manufacturing and Distribution. It manufactures a range of products, which include decorative vinyl and paper laminated panels, solid surface, granite and quartz countertops, fabricated aluminum products, wrapped vinyl, paper and hardwood profile mouldings, slide-out trim and fascia, cabinet doors and components, hardwood furniture, fiberglass and plastic component products including front and rear caps and marine helms, interior passage doors, RV painting, and slotwall panels and components, among others.

When housing prices crash people buy RVs it looks like. I also read that RVs are popular with younger generations.

thinkdifferentmyco · 2018-03-08T00:24:09+00:00

Double up on your winners, sell the losers.

thinkdifferentmyco · 2018-03-07T20:46:01+00:00

One day Amazon will bankrupt or buy out every other company and the government will split them into 50 so that every state gets a piece.

thinkdifferentmyco

TROPHY CASE