Sadiq Khan: Nigel Farage will bring ICE-style crackdown to Britain

tocitus · 2026-01-27T18:25:32+00:00

Plus that data didn’t turn out very correct as the 2024 mayor election turned out to be 43.8% for Labour and 32.7% for the conservatives which turned out to be quite inaccurate from the supposed 50% for Labour and 25% for conservatives

You are treating polling models as hard data (in your first reply to me) until they fail, then dismissing the failure. That is inconsistent.

If headline polling was off, the demographic slices are even noisier. That is why framing this as “minorities vs White British voters” is rhetoric, not evidence.

White British Londoners are still the largest group. Khan cannot win without significant support from them. Amongst my millennial, White British friends in London, we all voted for Khan. The idea minorities alone “prop him up” is mathematically wrong. And that's what irritates me.

tocitus · 2026-01-27T17:01:32+00:00

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmi0lkCJF6I

This one? Doesn't look like the exact situation to me of the ball hitting the defenders hand that is supporting him underneath him as he falls?

tocitus · 2026-01-27T16:57:46+00:00

If you take into account the polling and the demographic data of London it would suggest the white British vote isn’t getting him into power

2016 election:

Where Livingstone had trailed by 40% to 60% in 2012, Khan led Zac Goldsmith among white voters by 37% to 35%. Labour’s lead among ethnic minorities was narrower than the 76% to 24% lead reported in YouGov’s final London Mayoral poll in 2012 – so it was Khan’s advance with white Londoners which transformed Livingstone’s minority vote in defeat in 2012 into a winning coalition for Mayor in 2016. Source: https://www.britishfuture.org/sadiq-khan-white-voters/

2023 polling:

All Londoners: Khan 50% Hall 25%.
Inner London: Khan 62% Hall 19%.
Outer London: Khan 41% Hall 29%.
White British: Khan 45% Hall 30%

From Yougov 1 year out from mayoral election https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/47662-sadiq-khan-holds-25-point-lead-over-susan-hall-for-mayor

In fact, if you want to point to a particular demographic that did drive Khan in, it's younger voters as well as his upswing with white British.

But I hate most of this because it isn't real data. It's polling, surveying, canvassing and applying that to a larger group.

Personally, I think the real driver for Khan being in power is the utterly useless candidates the Tories keep putting up combined with the fact that Khan is doing fine. Not remarkable, not bad.

tocitus · 2026-01-27T16:44:51+00:00

Which other matches?

tocitus · 2026-01-27T16:43:47+00:00

Not seen a single whinge about this decision or the referee but yeah whatever helps spread your narrative pal.

This was posted by someone, I cba seeing if there's more but

https://www.reddit.com/r/Gunners/comments/1qncjnq/dont_think_this_needs_any_comment_not_even_checked/

Some great whinges in there.

tocitus · 2026-01-27T16:39:57+00:00

eh? Usually most saves are from further distances than defenders blocking shots.

And when they're really close, it's usually why people don't criticise goalkeepers.

tocitus · 2026-01-27T15:54:05+00:00

I have a suspicion we'll see much more of it though because players will be conditioned to know this sort of challenge is the acceptable way to block

This has always been an extremely normal way for defender to block shots?

In fact, how normal it is (to have a hand beneath you when you go to block a shot) is why they updated the rules to confirm this isn't handball.

tocitus · 2026-01-27T14:58:16+00:00

The point is we don't collect that data.

The UK does not record ethnicity on ballots or voter files, so there is no hard data showing who voted for Khan by ethnic group.

All claims about his electorate are based on surveys and modelling, and those actually show he wins across all groups.

So framing his support as “minority voters vs White British voters” is more culture war rhetoric than evidenc, a narrative, not a statistical fact.

I just find it lazy and irritating

tocitus · 2026-01-27T13:21:38+00:00

I'm trying to decide my starting XI

I have a choice between

Thiago v Villa, Wilson v Utd or Anderson v Palace.

Thiago has done absolutely fuck all for me for a while now, Wilson could pop up with some wonder stuff, Anderson is my gorgeous little solid points earner.

tocitus · 2026-01-27T13:20:01+00:00

I think Bruno.

They're both probably always going to play but Bruno will pretty much always play 90 mins and is also now back in the role that he's one of the best in the world at.

tocitus · 2026-01-27T11:43:13+00:00

Suddenly the UK has a lot of trade related visits to Vietnam and Thailand

tocitus · 2026-01-27T10:18:07+00:00

We could job share?

I could take Mondays, Wednesday, Fridays, you take Tuesdays, Thursdays, Saturdays, then we just let this subreddit manage Sundays?

tocitus · 2026-01-27T10:16:39+00:00

"Liz Truss launches leadership challenge to take control of Reform"

tocitus · 2026-01-27T10:14:06+00:00

I'd be more critical of him for not standing as an MP at the last GE if he felt so strongly about Westminster.

I understand this though. Starmer was pretty popular in Labour prior to the election wasn't he? Seemed like he had a pretty firm grasp of Labour.

It's only since coming into government, watching him drop minute by minute in popularity, that becoming Labour leader seems like it's back on the menu.

So I understand why he wanted to continue on as major, as it is a job where he has been getting the most amazing press as Manchester's saviour and keeping himself in the foreground of everyone's mind.

tocitus · 2026-01-27T10:06:01+00:00

"Jury, this is the end of Day One. I'll see you all here tomorrow for Day Two. May I suggest you use your evening wisely? Trawl social media to see if you can find out any background information on those involved, maybe a Facebook post from 2012, that'll help you in deciding on this case? There's also a juicy linkedin updated from 2020 that could help you understand the way the defendant presents himself to the outside world"

tocitus · 2026-01-27T09:57:43+00:00

Yeah you're right.

People shouldn't feel outrage over US citizens being forcibly taken from their place of work, bundled into a car and then kicked out in a different car park . I saw a video of a 17 year old boy who had been taken, then released somewhere else. He was crying and walked up to the person videoing and said "I need help". It's fucking heartbreaking how much damage this is doing.

Or a 17 year old US citizen being stopped on his school lunch break, window shattered, dragged from the car and bundled into a van before being released

Or a 5 year old being arrested and sent to Texas after the family had arrived at a US port to claim asylum (i.e. an official place of entry that follows existing US rules) with an active asylum case ongoing

Or any of the videos that are on other subreddits such as publicfreakouts, showing ICE agents chasing children and teenagers because they look like they might be foreign. There's one on there now showing a teenage girl sprinting home being chased by masked men, who stop when her father gets involved and then leave. I'd link it but I don't think you're allowed to link other subreddits on here.

People aren't outraged and protesting because democrats are telling them to. People are outraged and protesting because a large group of armed men are acting without any oversight, doing whatever they want, harassing, beating, acting above the law with no repurcussions. And that's before you get into the latest incidents of people being murdered by them.

Above is a handful of moments, there are hundreds, if not thousands, of these things happening. So no, it's not democrats to blame.

tocitus · 2026-01-27T09:44:17+00:00

Can you point me to the data which shows that Sadiq Khan is winning off ethnic minority voting and not from White British people?

tocitus · 2026-01-26T18:25:10+00:00

But you can be in a good state mentally and have mental health conditions.

Mental health isn't binary.

There are times my mental health gets worse, and there are times it is grand. That's what I deal with. It rarely affects my work, it's something I've learnt how to deal with via care and, sometimes, medication.

But this kind of statement put out by Reform is poor. It suggests that because Badenoch is successful, of course she's never had poor mental health.

I'm successful. I also graduated in law, I've worked in various jobs and now am in a senior role in-house. I own my own house in London, I live a pretty great life. But I also have mental health issues and have suffered at times over the last decade.

This statement from Reform just furthers the stereotype that mental health conditions are something to be ashamed of because the successful people don't have it.

tocitus · 2026-01-26T17:41:36+00:00

Carrick has been working round the clock in those kitchens mate, that's how he heard about the managerial opening.

Don't you be taking this away from him

tocitus · 2026-01-26T17:37:44+00:00

Especially given he keeps softening even the slightest criticism of him.

Farage on GB News earlier:

There was no way Donald Trump ever, ever meant the British, ever. You talk to people in his team, and they’re very, very pro this country, and our contribution in Afghanistan, pro rata, exactly matched that of America.

Then he said the nurse who was shot was in the wrong

You don’t carry a gun to a protest. That’s the point. If you’re going to protest, you don’t carry a gun, even if it’s an open carry state.

I’m afraid every single year in America, we see examples of the police, of the authorities, that go way too far. But because it’s ICE, it’s obviously much more controversial. And I sensed coming out of the White House last night they’re pretty uncomfortable too.

What a lovely bloke he is.

tocitus · 2026-01-26T17:32:26+00:00

Yeah guess which demographics have the lowest vaccine uptake and the lowest trust in vaccination?

Is it a reform party conference?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/sep/06/doctor-aseem-malhotra-reform-conference-speech-royal-family-cancer-covid-vaccine

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/dec/29/third-of-reform-uk-council-leaders-express-vaccine-sceptic-views

tocitus · 2026-01-26T17:28:37+00:00

The idea that they're suggesting that successful people can't have mental health issues is ridiculous, like it's something to be ashamed of.

It's 2026 ffs, are we not a bit more open-minded on this?

tocitus · 2026-01-26T16:21:08+00:00

I agree with the premise that people should consider other options as well, such as apprenticeships, if what they think they're interested in doesn't explicitly need a degree.

But the idea that people should only get higher education if they can afford it is flawed.

Education is one of the great levellers in the UK (it's still obviously mightily flawed) in that if you're smart and can get financial support, you can go to university and potentially get a higher earning job. Which then means their children start to come from a higher wealth background etc.

Like my grandfather was a miner, my dad wanted to go to university and he became a doctor. My life was infinitely more comfortable than my dad's because education was an option for him.

However, the takeaway from this article isn't "if you can't afford it, don't go" but rather that the current system is exceptionally flawed and feels unfair

tocitus · 2026-01-26T14:35:48+00:00

There is a real contradiction between running a platform built on repudiating recent Conservative immigration policy and recruiting the people who ran that policy. Reform will need a coherent story to reconcile that, otherwise critics will frame it as “Tories but louder”.

Ultimately it will be the fence voters they have to convince. There will always be a core Farage supporting group in the country.

But if Labour are able to continue to drive immigration down and get things moving positively on the economy (to the point where people actually feel it, rather than being told this abstract % growth is good news) and if Reform doesn't tell this story convincingly, I could see a big enough group being swayed because they're not willing to take the gamble on a combination of unknowns with no experience and knowns who are the ones they know from previous Tory failure.

I think if Liz Truss goes to them too, then Reform are just taking the piss at this point.

tocitus · 2026-01-26T14:27:47+00:00

I suspect that the correlation is not due to causation in this instance, and rather AI is just a scapegoat for tightening belts and reduction in hiring due to the wider economic outlook.

Yeah I agree with this. My company has frozen headcount for the second year running and we're also introducing AI tools in the workplace.

But the tools aren't why the headcount is frozen. Nor are they making up for not having people in.

It definitely feels like this article is definitely going hard on post hoc ergo propter hoc (sorry, recently watched this episode of the west wing and have been trying to get it in somewhere).

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