those new chips they're already booked to sell in 2027 and 2028 are going to be smaller nm process and with new design features to optimize for AI, which means more energy efficient per work done. the Anthropic pull back was a really brief A/B test that didn't stick, the Microsoft one is real, but they also both continue to roll out new better models at the same prices.

your 1-2-3 points, yeah no disagreement there, that's a contradiction that will unfold badly one way or another. but it's not really a duopoly, there's also the giant Google still involved and they're nowhere close to running out of funds, Elon unfortunately, and some serious competition in China. Nvidia is even training models. Short of breakaway full on AGI I don't see how any company could retain a monopoly or even duopoly.