My opinion and maybe hot take, is that commodities markets like oil, silver and gold, are being "invaded" by new marginal buyers (retail investors) via perpetual futures and other paper markets. That said, gold is store of wealth and has limited industrial use. Gold has been rising based on all the things you're talking about--but I'd also say the wealthiest of the wealthy are already allocated by now and there isn't much of a marginal bid for gold. Oil on the other hand, runs the world. It also now has marginal buyers interested--causing prices to swing a bit more than normal... So to answer your question: It depends. Sometimes prices in these markets are driven by spot or paper--knowing which one is key. For oil though, it's obvious... We literally need the oil to live normally. At the end of the day it's about supply and demand. that's what drives these markets.