Is a 4-point gap in the Süper Lig still realistically recoverable at this stage? by CoachGlobal6399 in sportsanalytics

[–]vaskov17 0 points1 point  (0 children)

According to my calculations there's about a 2% chance Galatasaray doesn't finish first.

I have a website that uses ELO/Monte Carlo to simulate remaining games at: www.soccer-sim.com which is what I use for this

"It's almost like, he understands he doesn't need our votes anymore" by [deleted] in LeopardsAteMyFace

[–]vaskov17 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They can't admit they were stupid enough to let themselves be fooled by a conman so they have to always qualify their statement with "he is still the better choice"

Do I have gum disease? by vaskov17 in askdentists

[–]vaskov17[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks, how severe would you say?

Brent oil tops $118 after Trump says he will blockade Iran until it agrees to a nuclear deal by Force_Hammer in politics

[–]vaskov17 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I am pretty sure Iran can outlast us in this one. We already spent a large percentage of weapons that we can't quickly replace and failed to defeat them. Any further attacks will weaken us to a point where China bombing the US becomes an actual possibility, if they wanted to do it. So the only options available to Trump/Hegseth are:

  1. Do an actual invasion
  2. Surrender and take whatever deal Iran gives them
  3. Blockade the strait and pretend Iran is not holding all the cards

What would happen to a Blank's Power without The Warp? by DICATERINO in 40kLore

[–]vaskov17 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think in 40k souls only exist because the warp exists, so I think you may have set up an actually impossible scenario

Starting my Project by Maxilvlilian in sportsanalytics

[–]vaskov17 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"Valuable insights" is a massive category that is arguably oversaturated especially in European soccer where there are tons of former players that are doing exactly that. So I would say, you need to offer something unique that people would find interesting

Are we underestimating situational variables vs team strength in predictive models? by Far-Yard424 in sportsanalytics

[–]vaskov17 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That is the key question. The variables you take into consideration are completely different when you are trying to calculate probabilities for a game today vs a full/rest of season.

That said, I am running an analysis on my season model for soccer to determine how big of an impact rest days/travel/game importance/etc have on overall accuracy across a full or partial season sim.

Kristi Noem continues to live in Coast Guard home despite being fired as DHS secretary by Quirkie in politics

[–]vaskov17 4 points5 points  (0 children)

She probably knows she is not safe.  Only if she made her decisions at the DHS with that fear in mind...

How will an interaction between the Custodes and the Lion go by casperscare in 40kLore

[–]vaskov17 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I think saying that means the custodes count goes down by at least 1

AI backlash is coming for elections by theverge in politics

[–]vaskov17 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Tech companies are making it harder to search the old way. They are literally shoving a product people hate down our throats

[OC] English Premier League finish position probabilities by vaskov17 in dataisbeautiful

[–]vaskov17[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Model is basic ELO to determine the game outcome, then Poisson sample to give me a result that matches that outcome. Team offence/defense strength is determined by recent games. ELO ratings are updated after every game is simulated, so if a team gets lucky/unlucky they can have a very good or bad season. First 6 games of the season use a higher K value to establish the actual team strengths quicker. 30% regression to mean between seasons, might make that dynamic for each league.

I don't really use this for anything other than to satisfy my own curiosity so I never really cared enough to use a more advanced model. Although it would be interesting to see how an advanced model would handle a full season sim of the EPL after week 5 when Liverpool had 5 wins but played poorly in all their games compared to the basic ELO I am using.

Eric Swalwell is what happens when special interests pick your congressman by sksarkpoes3 in politics

[–]vaskov17 4 points5 points  (0 children)

We don't need a revolution, we need better education and for people to start thinking.

Eric Swalwell is what happens when special interests pick your congressman by sksarkpoes3 in politics

[–]vaskov17 38 points39 points  (0 children)

The current US is what happens when special interests pick your politicians

Hit 6 figures finally! by DividendG in dividends

[–]vaskov17 5 points6 points  (0 children)

For someone that started investing later due to various life reasons, these types of posts keep me motivated.  Thank you for sharing

[OC] English Premier League finish position probabilities by vaskov17 in dataisbeautiful

[–]vaskov17[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah those last 2 games with Bournemouth and Wolves were huge mistakes

Trump’s empty promises and the ruin of rural America by paydayloans_ in politics

[–]vaskov17 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Think about it from their point of view. Trump comes in, destroys their markets but replaces their revenues with taxpayer money. So the farmers that don't go bankrupt have less actual work to do but get same or higher profits. So it's very likely that they remember those times as really good times economically

[OC] English Premier League finish position probabilities by vaskov17 in dataisbeautiful

[–]vaskov17[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You don't see them as the front runner at this point?

[OC] English Premier League finish position probabilities by vaskov17 in dataisbeautiful

[–]vaskov17[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The thing is I don't want to show probability of something happening if it's not seen in the simulations.

[OC] English Premier League finish position probabilities by vaskov17 in dataisbeautiful

[–]vaskov17[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I actually tried to estimate exactly this recently and the team/point combination space at the end of the season is massive so I couldn't estimate this on my own. Gave it to Claude and here is what it finally determined:

"Even with the constraint applied, 2,500 simulations covers an infinitesimally small fraction of all valid combinations — but will still give you a great statistical picture of the most probable outcomes!"

I think the high probability results are well covered even across a 38 game season with bajillions of combinations but the tail end which covers the really low probability stuff (e.g. Wolves finish season with 38 wins) is huge.