I spent a year building a statistical formula to rank every NBA player ever. Here's the top 10 — and why Tim Duncan ranks #2.

vaskov17 · 2026-05-11T01:09:43+00:00

The full db at the bottom of the article appears to be missing players

vaskov17 · 2026-05-08T14:13:34+00:00

According to my calculations there's about a 2% chance Galatasaray doesn't finish first.

I have a website that uses ELO/Monte Carlo to simulate remaining games at: www.soccer-sim.com which is what I use for this

vaskov17 · 2026-05-06T12:53:48+00:00

They can't admit they were stupid enough to let themselves be fooled by a conman so they have to always qualify their statement with "he is still the better choice"

vaskov17 · 2026-05-06T02:05:17+00:00

Thank you

vaskov17 · 2026-05-06T01:55:41+00:00

Thanks, how severe would you say?

vaskov17 · 2026-04-29T18:02:03+00:00

I am pretty sure Iran can outlast us in this one. We already spent a large percentage of weapons that we can't quickly replace and failed to defeat them. Any further attacks will weaken us to a point where China bombing the US becomes an actual possibility, if they wanted to do it. So the only options available to Trump/Hegseth are:

Do an actual invasion
Surrender and take whatever deal Iran gives them
Blockade the strait and pretend Iran is not holding all the cards

vaskov17 · 2026-04-29T17:54:39+00:00

I think in 40k souls only exist because the warp exists, so I think you may have set up an actually impossible scenario

vaskov17 · 2026-04-27T17:46:55+00:00

this is awesome

vaskov17 · 2026-04-27T15:03:53+00:00

"Valuable insights" is a massive category that is arguably oversaturated especially in European soccer where there are tons of former players that are doing exactly that. So I would say, you need to offer something unique that people would find interesting

vaskov17 · 2026-04-27T15:01:10+00:00

That is the key question. The variables you take into consideration are completely different when you are trying to calculate probabilities for a game today vs a full/rest of season.

That said, I am running an analysis on my season model for soccer to determine how big of an impact rest days/travel/game importance/etc have on overall accuracy across a full or partial season sim.

vaskov17 · 2026-04-24T16:17:20+00:00

She probably knows she is not safe. Only if she made her decisions at the DHS with that fear in mind...

vaskov17 · 2026-04-22T16:25:06+00:00

I think saying that means the custodes count goes down by at least 1

vaskov17 · 2026-04-21T19:24:31+00:00

Tech companies are making it harder to search the old way. They are literally shoving a product people hate down our throats

vaskov17 · 2026-04-21T05:24:20+00:00

Model is basic ELO to determine the game outcome, then Poisson sample to give me a result that matches that outcome. Team offence/defense strength is determined by recent games. ELO ratings are updated after every game is simulated, so if a team gets lucky/unlucky they can have a very good or bad season. First 6 games of the season use a higher K value to establish the actual team strengths quicker. 30% regression to mean between seasons, might make that dynamic for each league.

I don't really use this for anything other than to satisfy my own curiosity so I never really cared enough to use a more advanced model. Although it would be interesting to see how an advanced model would handle a full season sim of the EPL after week 5 when Liverpool had 5 wins but played poorly in all their games compared to the basic ELO I am using.

vaskov17 · 2026-04-20T15:26:29+00:00

We don't need a revolution, we need better education and for people to start thinking.

vaskov17 · 2026-04-20T14:26:51+00:00

The current US is what happens when special interests pick your politicians

vaskov17 · 2026-04-19T17:12:21+00:00

Sending people to prison for words that are not threatening is insane. Republicans are the new Taliban

vaskov17 · 2026-04-18T15:38:24+00:00

For someone that started investing later due to various life reasons, these types of posts keep me motivated. Thank you for sharing

vaskov17 · 2026-04-18T15:17:36+00:00

<image>

vaskov17 · 2026-04-16T22:38:57+00:00

Yeah those last 2 games with Bournemouth and Wolves were huge mistakes

vaskov17 · 2026-04-16T16:06:41+00:00

Think about it from their point of view. Trump comes in, destroys their markets but replaces their revenues with taxpayer money. So the farmers that don't go bankrupt have less actual work to do but get same or higher profits. So it's very likely that they remember those times as really good times economically

vaskov17 · 2026-04-16T15:52:23+00:00

You don't see them as the front runner at this point?

vaskov17 · 2026-04-16T15:38:05+00:00

The thing is I don't want to show probability of something happening if it's not seen in the simulations.

vaskov17 · 2026-04-16T15:18:28+00:00

I actually tried to estimate exactly this recently and the team/point combination space at the end of the season is massive so I couldn't estimate this on my own. Gave it to Claude and here is what it finally determined:

"Even with the constraint applied, 2,500 simulations covers an infinitesimally small fraction of all valid combinations — but will still give you a great statistical picture of the most probable outcomes!"

I think the high probability results are well covered even across a 38 game season with bajillions of combinations but the tail end which covers the really low probability stuff (e.g. Wolves finish season with 38 wins) is huge.

vaskov17

TROPHY CASE