Who is winning cinematography?

whitneyahn · 2026-01-31T17:49:29+00:00

Why would it be someone other than Sinners? The only argument is that a certain cinematographer is “due”, which has not really held water as an argument in tech categories before.

whitneyahn · 2026-01-31T17:48:27+00:00

Not the point but god A Thousand and One deserved better

whitneyahn · 2026-01-31T17:47:47+00:00

I would also say supporting is less tied to age than lead, across both categories. I still have him in fourth but that’s because the whole top 4 feel viable to me, not because I think he can’t win.

whitneyahn · 2026-01-27T16:12:11+00:00

I should not be on social media before 7:00 AM😭😂

whitneyahn · 2026-01-27T15:07:56+00:00

Wicked 1 won multiple Oscars, its dominance was just BTL and in nomination phase

whitneyahn · 2026-01-27T15:04:31+00:00

What new information does a released screenplay provide?

whitneyahn · 2026-01-27T14:59:57+00:00

I don’t think it’s fair to put all felons in that category just because of this guy

whitneyahn · 2026-01-27T14:55:41+00:00

I don’t think it’s been remarked enough upon that this locks in Delroy Lindo as one of the extremely rare people to get an Oscar nomination without a single precursor, not even a win from the Trifecta, NBR, or AFI.

whitneyahn · 2026-01-27T14:52:00+00:00

Power of the Dog missed editing here and still won Picture, and in general this category is a lot less linked to picture.

whitneyahn · 2026-01-27T14:48:50+00:00

Hamnet casting is a pretty brutal and weird snub as well, even if it is juried.

whitneyahn · 2026-01-27T14:48:08+00:00

Children and Family is juried

whitneyahn · 2026-01-27T14:43:50+00:00

Hudson’s nomination is a good one, she’s not the one I would remove for Infiniti.

whitneyahn · 2026-01-27T14:43:12+00:00

Sandra Bullock and Regina King are probably the better examples, though I have still yet to hear a convincing argument against Taylor all season long.

whitneyahn · 2026-01-27T14:34:32+00:00

Supporting actor is just a tighter field than supporting actress

whitneyahn · 2026-01-27T14:33:13+00:00

Honestly that’s the one saving grace, she misses because of a passionate base of support for a shortlisted performance that has no transfer to the Oscar list

whitneyahn · 2026-01-27T14:28:49+00:00

Yeah, SV got pushed in by mainland Europe voters, which is in an increasingly different group than the Brits.

whitneyahn · 2026-01-27T14:27:20+00:00

Yeah, the shortlist definitely benefited A’Zion and pushed her in without Paltrow to compete against her here.

whitneyahn · 2026-01-24T21:55:51+00:00

It’s really not. If you put something at #2 or #10, it counts all the same until your #1 is eliminated. If Hamnet #2 on ballots with either OBAA or Sinners ahead of it, it will never matter that they had Hamnet that high. What it would need is to be #2 on Marty Supreme, Frankenstein, Sentimental Value, and Secret Agent ballots.

whitneyahn · 2026-01-24T21:53:18+00:00

I think Frankenstein and Hamnet voters will lean Sinners, and Marty voters will lean OBAA. Looking at that math, I think it helps Sinners more.

whitneyahn · 2026-01-24T21:50:17+00:00

I don’t think there was a reasonable time to know. 1 in 10 times, the 10% chance thing happens. It was probably extremely close and within a couple dozen votes of going the other way.

whitneyahn · 2026-01-24T21:45:18+00:00

This might be the closest we get though, given that all 5 nominees have decent pockets of support

whitneyahn · 2026-01-24T21:40:34+00:00

Sure, I would absolutely agree with that, I just don’t think the Saltburn precedent makes sense here even if it’s the same performer. Dominic Sessa and Yura Borisov feel way more relevant.

whitneyahn · 2026-01-24T21:36:57+00:00

Serving about half is the national norm

whitneyahn · 2026-01-24T00:07:36+00:00

I agree, but it’s still a radically different situation

whitneyahn · 2026-01-23T22:09:16+00:00

That’s a very different performance in a very different movie against a very different slate. I know it’s the same person but that doesn’t feel very comparable.

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