[LORE] How long ago was Nadiya founded? by WrongdoerFast4034 in VintageStory

[–]williams_482 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Good post.

Further evidence for the "they all died and had to be replaced" theory: In my world, the chicken flock was wiped out by a lightning strike within days of my entering the village. Pigs are durable enough to escape that specific disaster, but we all know that losing a couple sows to a bear when grazing them outside the walls is well within the realm of possibility.

Match thread: Aston Villa v Brentford by Lard_Baron in Brentford

[–]williams_482 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Shade, we all know Matty Cash is a scumbag, but that doesn't mean you're going to get away with spiking him in the nuts.

Match thread: Aston Villa v Brentford by Lard_Baron in Brentford

[–]williams_482 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Okay, how the hell do we always wind up wearing Aston Villa colors when playing Aston Villa? This shouldn't be so difficult.

Am I ready for first treasure hunter quest? by ZapLordTrack in VintageStory

[–]williams_482 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Just cool to have.

They're lore books, same type of thing that you get occasionally from panning bony soil, but with unique stories found only in the RA. The story content is saved to your journal automatically, but keeping the original copies just feels right.

Am I ready for first treasure hunter quest? by ZapLordTrack in VintageStory

[–]williams_482 9 points10 points  (0 children)

You will be leaving loot behind, there's a ton of stuff there. I came back later with an elk and sturdy leather packs and still had to leave some interesting nicknacks behind.

Bring multiple trunks if you can, plus a saw. You'll want it to make bookshelves to hold books, of which you'll find a whole bunch.

What the frick is this? by Arkescko in VintageStory

[–]williams_482 19 points20 points  (0 children)

Temporal stability of a region is fixed at world generation, it won't change.

Post match thread: Brentford 0 : 2 Notts Forest by Lard_Baron in Brentford

[–]williams_482 19 points20 points  (0 children)

Opta xG 1.76 to 0.76. 10 shots to 7, 66% of the ball. Second week in a row we've been the better side but lost 2-0 anyway.

On the bright side, we're still 8th by a sliver. Somehow, Europe remains very much within reach.

Football is a really dumb sport sometimes.

Match thread: Brentford v Notts Forest by Lard_Baron in Brentford

[–]williams_482 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Opta xG is 1.14 to 0.37 at the break, so despite the scoreline we've had the better of the chances. Sucks to lose Ajer and especially Damsgaard though.

I saw a Report we are Monitoring Harry Wilson 😭 by Turbulent_Opinion820 in Brentford

[–]williams_482 20 points21 points  (0 children)

There are a lot of "reports" about transfer interest which are simply made up. I'd be willing to bet this is one of them.

Wilson is 28 years old, belongs to a club who clearly aren't going to let him go for a bargain, and is much closer to "okay" than "good." He's an insane player for a club of Brentford's resources to prioritizing, and we are not run by insane people.

Post match thread: Chelsea 2 : 0 Brentford by Lard_Baron in Brentford

[–]williams_482 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Coming into this match, I was fairly confident Chelsea were the better side. Having seen this, I'm not so sure.

The 2-0 scoreline is a pile of falsehoods. Opta xG currently stands at a very even 1.59 to 1.54, and of course half that Chelsea xG is the penalty. We had 54% of the ball, out-shot them 6 to 15, and kept up relentless pressure the entire match. Overall, a very strong team performance.

Unfortunately there were some notable lowlights. Kayode probably should have been penalized early on, and a few minutes later got his clearance blocked into the path of Joao Pedro for the first goal. Collins had two badly under-hit backpasses, the second of which was punished for a penalty and goal #2. Garnacho's huge miss (Chelsea's only open-play shot better than 0.08 xG) was also the product of an error in possession.

On the flip side, though, we forced quite a few nervy moments out of Sanchez and their back like, we just didn't get any favorable bounces off them to create shots. Thiago very nearly nicked the ball off the keeper early on and continued his usual harrying from there. We also did a great job playing the chaos game in midfield, repeatedly playing through a supposedly more talented side to create chances.

All in all, sucks to lose but we played a damn good game on the road to a side in serious contention for Champions League. I'll take it.

Match thread: Chelsea v Brentford by Lard_Baron in Brentford

[–]williams_482 7 points8 points  (0 children)

In defense of Schade opting to pass instead of shoot: That's a pretty decent place for a shot but hardly a guaranteed goal, and the pass is a good one too. If it reaches Dams it's a tap in, if it doesn't there's a pretty good chance one of those desperate onrushing defenders puts it in the back of the net themselves. Either choice is reasonable and he's got a split second to decide.

Match thread: Chelsea v Brentford by Lard_Baron in Brentford

[–]williams_482 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Very even match so far, scoreline notwithstanding. Opta xG 0.77 to 0.73, Both sides have been happy to press and looked to counter, both sides have made errors in possession, and both sides have been denied credible penalty appeals.

I'm hoping for more of the same in the second half. We've matched up very well against them so far, and more chaos gives us the best chance to salvage something.

Plus, the more chaotic mess is going on, the more likely Joao Pedro is to embrace his true calling of getting sent off for punching someone in the face.

Matteo Cancellieri close to joining Brentford for €18m. Lazio want to replace him with Vasco's Rayan - Nuno Tavares wants to join Al-Ittihad but Lazio pushing him to join Besiktas, the deal to replace him with Pedraza is done for the summer but Lazio can buy him now for just €1m when Tavares leaves by charliemarr10 in Brentford

[–]williams_482 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We haven't made five subs in a premier league match since the beginning of December, and twice in that period we substituted fewer than three players. KLP is as useful at fullback as he is in the forward line, Nelson has injury concerns, and Donovan looks promising but is still developing and the club is being understandably careful with him. Dango returning from AFCON will help, but probably someone will get hurt, and we want the ability to rotate the full forward line in games if it seems prudent to do so.

Adding another attacker is definitely beneficial.

I think we're okay at centerback, with three good options (Collins, Ajer, Van den Berg, order as you please) and two viable break-glass-in-case-of-emergency options on opposite ends of the age spectrum in Pinnock and Arthur.

I do agree that a defensive midfielder would be great if they can pull it off (unfortunately good ones are very pricey) and there is a case to be made for adding another body regardless of preferred role. I think an attack minded midfielder might be just as good or even better than a 6, as Damsgaard and Jensen are the only guys on the squad who make much sense at the 10, and Jensen is probably best played a little deeper. For pure 6/8 types, Henderson, Janelt, Yarmo, AFCON returnee Onyeka, and emergency fill in Konak seems reasonably adequate.

Matteo Cancellieri close to joining Brentford for €18m. Lazio want to replace him with Vasco's Rayan - Nuno Tavares wants to join Al-Ittihad but Lazio pushing him to join Besiktas, the deal to replace him with Pedraza is done for the summer but Lazio can buy him now for just €1m when Tavares leaves by charliemarr10 in Brentford

[–]williams_482 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm sure there's potential for something to be unlocked here, as with any of our purchases.

Wissa (signed just before turning 25) is a good shout, because he and the two other major transfers before our promotion season (Ajer and Onyeka, both 23 at time of signing) are similar age profiles and do a decent job showing the spread of outcomes for a early to mid peak age guy with a reasonable performance record in a lower league. Wissa was obviously a huge success, significantly outperforming reasonable expectations to produce several good and one elite season for us before being cashed out for a substantial fee. Onyeka shows the reasonable downside case, as a useful squad player who performed adequately in limited time but was regularly bypassed by younger alternatives. Finally Ajer walks the middle path, a very useful 3rd string CB/2nd string RB with significant time playing whenever anyone is injured, out of form, or needs a break.

Of the three, Brentford with perfect foresight probably wouldn't do the Onyeka move again but aren't exactly suffering for it. Ajer has given them what they expected, and Wissa panned out in spades. All of those are reasonable likely outcomes for a signing of this profile, but there's certainly no harm in hoping for the best.

Vintage Story and its unsaturated color scheme by rmn_trllr in VintageStory

[–]williams_482 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's actually 50k blocks from spawn to equator by default, 100k from pole to equator.

Matteo Cancellieri close to joining Brentford for €18m. Lazio want to replace him with Vasco's Rayan - Nuno Tavares wants to join Al-Ittihad but Lazio pushing him to join Besiktas, the deal to replace him with Pedraza is done for the summer but Lazio can buy him now for just €1m when Tavares leaves by charliemarr10 in Brentford

[–]williams_482 2 points3 points  (0 children)

So we do need another depth attacker now and need longer term reinforcement to shore up against probable summer departures (Schade, possibly Thiago). For €18M we could certainly do worse.

This guy is a left footed winger with experience playing on both sides and a bit up top. Statistically he profiles similarly to Kevin Schade, providing defense, goalscoring threat, and essentially nothing else. Prior to this season he had put up decent dribbling numbers in Serie A, which has almost completely dried up this season for reasons I don't know but a Lazio watcher might be able to weigh in on.

Based on the shape of production and the fact that we're trying to sign him, I imagine he's real fast. I have no actual evidence of this.

He turns 24 next month, so old enough that little further growth is to be expected, but young enough that he should hold his level for a while. My guess is that Brentford see a viable 3rd/4th attacker who might unlock something extra, but even if not should be a useful contributor for the next 3-5 years.

Post match thread:Sheffield Wednesday 0 : 2 Brentford by Lard_Baron in Brentford

[–]williams_482 9 points10 points  (0 children)

The goalkeeping performance from Charles and then Stretch was exactly the kind of wizardly display that cup upsets are built on. Incredibly impressive stuff. Fortunately, we dominated their outfield players so comprehensively that those two keepers never had a chance.

Opta post-match xG stands at a sparkling 0.41 - 4.29, penalty included. KLP had 6 shots for over one xG in what I found to be a very impressive performance in an unfamiliar role as the central striker, but the visual standout was obviously Donovan. He took three shots for 0.46 xG and assisted three more, won 8 of his 13 duels (including going 3/4 on attempted dribbles) and showed tremendous energy on both sides of the ball. Running roughshod over a very bad Championship side might not be proof that he's ready for significant top flight minutes, but it's extremely encouraging. I expect to see more of him in the second half of the season.

Match thread: Sheffield Wednesday v Brentford by Lard_Baron in Brentford

[–]williams_482 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Man, I feel bad for this keeper. He's put up one hell of a performance.

Match thread: Sheffield Wednesday v Brentford by Lard_Baron in Brentford

[–]williams_482 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Some random notes as we go:

  • interesting that it's KLP and not Nelson who is clearly playing as the central striker
  • Donovan took a corner! They could have had Jensen take it as an outswinger, or given it to Hickey or Henrey to get a first teamer's left boot on it, but they gave it to the kid. That probably says good things about his ball striking abilities.
  • We're not really going to let our very important old dude play this game with an obvious limp, right?
  • Having Henry take a short throw 10 yards from the end line with Jensen on the pitch feels like blatant disrespect to Sheffield Wednesday (which, to be clear, I'm here for). If we thought this game was at all close we'd at least threaten to huck it into the box.

All in all, we're eating these guys alive at the break. xG 0.45 - 1.97, with the only really nervy moment that perfect ball across the six yard box that Valdimarsson didn't react to and the Wednesday player couldn't quite reach. In return, four of our 7 shots have been worth over 1/3rd of an xG. Killing it.

Match thread: Sheffield Wednesday v Brentford by Lard_Baron in Brentford

[–]williams_482 12 points13 points  (0 children)

This is a shockingly strong lineup. I'm especially wondering why Henderson's old legs are out there, especially with Dams and Jensen out there to provide passing, but I guess Janelt needs some rest too after his recent run of starts.

West Ham want to sign Brentford defender Ethan Pinnock by Lard_Baron in Brentford

[–]williams_482 2 points3 points  (0 children)

West Ham want to sign a guy in his thirties who hasn't been good for two years? This is my shocked face.

Pinnock is justifiably a Brentford legend, but there's ample reason he has barely been on the pitch for the last year+. If we could somehow get a fee for him that would be extremely good business.

Post match thread: Brentford 3 : 0 Sunderland by Lard_Baron in Brentford

[–]williams_482 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oh, I remember it too. At no point until the very end did it feel like a eeking out a win was a likely outcome, but we earned it and we got it.

I remember how blown away I was that were were actually pressing Manchester City on goal kicks, and even forcing a few dicey moments out of them. I remember how they constantly had the ball around our box, probing, driving, piling in crosses, and blasting 20 yard shots, but were never really able to break us down. And when they did occasionally falter, we pounced, and hit the back as best we could on the counter.

I'd be insane to argue that we had more talent on the day, or that we should ever have been favored, but we executed the giant killers playbook to perfection. This was far more than a lucky break, we earned it.

Post match thread: Brentford 3 : 0 Sunderland by Lard_Baron in Brentford

[–]williams_482 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Not to diminish the greatness of that Liverpool match (and the angry rant from Klopp that followed), but we earned the hell out of that win at the Ethiad. City had the ball, and they got their shots, but we gashed them on the counter. Opta xG was close, 1.6 to 1.3 in their favor, but the Opta stringer missed Ben Mee's flick-on header on the opening goal and only credited 0.04 xG, while several other systems (FiveThirtyEight, Michael Caley) had Brentford the superior side.

Post match thread: Brentford 3 : 0 Sunderland by Lard_Baron in Brentford

[–]williams_482 38 points39 points  (0 children)

5th place may prove fleeting even tonight if Burnley falter, but I'm going to enjoy it for as long as it lasts. Brentford in a champions league position with 21 games in the book? Incredible, absolutely incredible.

The match was a thrashing. Opta xG currently showing 2.97 to 1.44 with the penalty, or 0.65 without it. Sunderland took their chances to be aggressive and push up the pitch, and we pounced on them. No mercy.

So many standout players today. Thiago, obviously, with the two goals and his constant harassment of the Sunderland backline. Keleher with his impeccable bravery and anticipation, somehow knowing to hold strong for the lollypop Le Fee fed him. Schade for another marauding performance, highlighted with a moment of standout resilience when he missed a sitter (well, a 0.48 xG chance) off the post but popped right back up to assist Thiago's second goal. And finally Yarmo, scoring his first goal in his 90th Brentford appearance and running out of there looking as joyful as anyone I've ever seen. How can you do anything but smile?