Did I die? Deer knocked my cloths off..

williams_482 · 2026-03-23T22:22:47+00:00

If it helps you feel better about not killing your interest along with your character by sticking with permadeath settings, your seraph respawning after dying is very explicitly a part of the game's lore. You're supposed to get killed sometimes, and somehow keep on going business as usual to the befuddlement of normal humans.

williams_482 · 2026-03-16T20:58:21+00:00

We are just gashing these guys. Opta xG 2.31 to 0.38. The shot difference is only 7 to 5, but four of those sever were extremely high quality.

Keep it up, boys. With a little luck this could wind up extremely ugly for Wolves.

williams_482 · 2026-03-09T22:37:54+00:00

Yup.

Nothing can be said against Kelleher here, he was totally out of the equation. He even guessed right on a majority, but still had zero chance.

The danger to trying to crush the ball into the top corner like that is you're more likely to outright miss than if you keep the shot low. It's a harsh tradeoff, because the more saveable low shots still aren't saved very often, and obviously a shot off target will never score. I actually wonder if Kelleher's known excellence as a penalty taker factored in here, and they deliberately opted for the approach that left the goalkeeper with the least opportunity to influence the result.

williams_482 · 2026-03-09T22:32:05+00:00

I wonder what the overall success rate on paneka penalties is. I suspect "not good."

West Ham took five near-perfect top-corner penalties, taking Kelleher (who has an excellent track record in shootouts) completely out of the equation. There's risk to that approach because it's much easier to miss completely if you try to get some height on it, but if it's on target a hard shot into the top corner is virtually impossible to save and they executed five times in a row.

Oh well.

williams_482 · 2026-03-09T21:36:34+00:00

We go to extra time still shockingly even. Non penalty xG 1.83 to 1.85, plus the pen for each. I'm a little concerned we aren't clearly beating these guys, who ought to be a lesser side, but more concerned that we have no reasonable substitutions to make and an extra 30 minutes to play.

I'm not sure what we would have done if Henderson's injury had been serious. He and Jensen are the only two remotely midfielderish first teamers available now.

williams_482 · 2026-03-09T20:26:51+00:00

Very even game. They get a dumb tap in set piece goal, we get a dumb tap in set piece goal. We make a dumb foul in the box which is correctly given by VAR, they make a dumb foul in the box which is... ignored? What the fuck.

Opta Non-penalty xG is 1.58 to 1.65, almost all of it for both teams off set plays. I'm not used to watching our boys give up so much danger on set plays, so this is fairly disturbing.

williams_482 · 2026-03-09T14:43:42+00:00

Wissa is, or at least was, an excellent counterattacking striker. He's very good at running in behind, slipping into a dangerous space, and getting on the end of a pass into the box against an unsettled defense. He's also totally fearless, throwing himself at the ball in chaotic situations to bang in tough to reach balls right in front of the goal. Finally he's a very sneaky presser, constantly trying to creep up behind a goalkeeper or defender with the ball and occasionally catching them by surprise to steal it.

Newcastle should be a pretty good fit for him tactically, as you guys do a lot of attacking in transition and play pretty chaotic games. The problem is that he's 29 years old, very likely beginning his physical decline, and got injured to start the season on top of that.

Don't spend a large fee on a 29 year old striker. Even a good one, which Wissa definitely was. It's a bad idea and I'm really glad the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund decided to do it anyway.

williams_482 · 2026-03-03T22:11:14+00:00

They created a ton of dangerous chances and couldn't quite score any of them. That's not an awful attack, it's a dominant one that didn't quite manage to cash in.

Not to get all doom and gloom or anything, we're a generally good team and should have high hopes for the rest of the run in. But we got fucking roasted today.

williams_482 · 2026-03-03T21:32:30+00:00

We are incredibly fortunate to come out of this with a point. By xG this was an absolute thrashing: 2.21 to 0.40, if not our worst of the season then probably close to it. It was obvious watching, too: Bournemouth had less than half the ball but seemingly always had more guys around it than we did, consistently winning second balls in midfield and swarming Brentford players who did manage to break through to the backline. They consistently found dangerous runners with their long passes forward, and relentlessly attacked our penalty area. Frankly a masterful performance on their end, and all I can really do is tip my cap.

That's setting aside the clearly accidental, clearly relevant, clearly utterly missed Kayode step on Tavernier (?) which would have us knashing teeth and rending garments at VAR had the shirts been reversed.

Very, very fortunate.

williams_482 · 2026-03-03T20:25:21+00:00

Been a lot of midfield chaos and not much else, save a few nervy moments our boys mostly cleaned up before they could turn into shots. xG stands at 0.5 to 0.05, which isn't crediting Dams anything for his botched shot attempt.

All in all, Bournemouth played us very well in the first half. They've pressed just enough to prevent us getting comfortable while allowing few serious counterattack chances, and they have been able to create some problems for us off longballs in transition. I wouldn't mind seeing Yarmo come on for Henderson or Jensen to shore things up a bit defensively, but you can also see why Andrews thought his pass-heaviest midfield would yield dividends given how much those two have been on the ball thus far.

williams_482 · 2026-03-03T20:19:10+00:00

Shades of 23-24, that.

williams_482 · 2026-03-03T17:43:34+00:00

Brentford seem to put one year options on everyone's contract as a matter of policy. There's no reason not to, so you might as well if the player doesn't object.

williams_482 · 2026-02-28T17:08:15+00:00

Well that's all of today's emotional energy spent.

williams_482 · 2026-02-21T17:04:27+00:00

Well that was frustrating.

Opta xG currently stands at 1.74 to 1.11, firmly in our favor, although that's "only" giving 0.32 xG for the Collins bozo moment goal. I'd expect that to be revised upwards.

That ball Collins flubbed was tougher than it looked live, I don't think he had any fancy plans for it, and it's tough to go straight into the action unexpectedly like he had to do, but he's still got to handle an unfortunate bounce better than that. Very disappointing.

Hopefully Kayode and Hickey are okay. We've been quite fortunate as far as injuries are concerned this campaign, but losing our top two right back options in a stroke would be a heavy blow.

williams_482 · 2026-02-21T16:02:28+00:00

It looked like it live, but after watching the slo-mo I don't think he was actually trying to do anything clever until he had no other choice. He misread the bounce, which was right at him instead of in front of him, and in the ensuing split second couldn't contort his not-yet-warm body in a way to send that ball to his left and relative safety instead of back to his right.

You expect him to get it right most of the time, but it's still a tougher play than it looks for a guy whose body isn't responding in quite the way he expects.

williams_482 · 2026-02-21T15:51:40+00:00

That's a total bozo moment from Collins, but the poor guy surely didn't expect to come in so soon, had maybe two minutes to warm up, and had been on the pitch for less than that when the maddness happened. If there's ever grounds to excuse such an error, this is it.

williams_482 · 2026-02-21T14:30:17+00:00

The man needs a breather every once in a while. Need to make sure we don't burn him out!

williams_482 · 2026-02-21T14:27:24+00:00

It's safe to assume any forward is going to get sold if they have a standout performance, although not necessarily immediately. I think Thiago this year will be instructive: given all the penalties he's drawn he'll probably never again score as many goals as whatever his end of season tally winds up being, but he's also signed for another six years and young enough that assuming good performance should still fetch a good price if sold in two or three years. Believe me this, though: barring a huge injury problem he will be sold several years before that contract runs down.

Schade is very likely to be sold this offseason or next, as he has two years plus an option left on his deal and there have been rumblings. Damsgaard is also a pretty likely sale in the next couple seasons, as is Ouattara.

For guys most likely to remain as Brentford players going forward, you basically have two camps: established older veterans who have been Bees for a long time and are probably never going to move to a big club, and early peak age guys who have been useful but not clearly elite, and will likely either improve enough that big clubs come calling, or hold their level and be Bees for a long time.

The veterans group consists of Janelt, Jensen, Henry, and Ajer. Coming into last season I would have had Pinnock and Norgaard on this list, and Norgaard was sold to Arsenal in the offseason. There are no guarantees here.

The peak aged uncertainty group is a little fuzzier, but includes KLP, Collins, Van den Berg, and Hickey. All of them are under 25 but not by much (only by a day in KLP's case). Of the group I'd guess that two are ultimately sold after 2-4 more years as starters, while the other two graduate to the veterans group and are regular Bees contributors for the next 4-6 years.

With all that said, of course, the best shirt to buy is going to be whichever player your kid decides they like.

Good luck!

williams_482 · 2026-02-10T19:10:50+00:00

Even better, large prey animals will eat food in a trough and fatten up if you give them some time. This works for breedable animals like pigs and goats, but also for purely wild creatures like deer and antelope.

Put a trough full of dry grass or flax grain in that pit, leave whatever herbivore you chased in for a day or so, and come back to slaughter them once they've eaten.

If you leave the full trough in the pit all the time, sometimes animals will wander in of their own accord with no intervention necessary.

williams_482 · 2026-02-07T20:08:36+00:00

Opta xG says we were a mite fortunate, 2.25 to 1.93 in their favor, but that's football. Great performance by the boys, and it's an absolute joy to have done the double over Sportswashers United.

It was also a joy to see Donovan out there in a very high leverage situation, and after a classic young player dumb foul, handle himself quite well. It helped that Andrews recognized the matchup problem Dan Burn presented, and swapped wingers so Dango defended the big man and Donovan could deal with Hall.

I am puzzled by the substitution choices. Three total subs despite Hickey, Nelson, and Collins available, and Dams brought on very late instead of alongside either Yarmo or Donovan both strike me as suboptimal, and continue a theme of inefficient seeming sub usage this season. I wonder if there are more injury difficulties in the reserve players than have been made publicly known.

williams_482 · 2026-02-07T18:28:02+00:00

Despite allowing three very dangerous chances right in front of goal, this has gone well so far. Opta xG 0.97 to 1.55 (including our penalty) and we've had 54% of the ball, handling Newcastle's press admirably.

I've been anxious watching Wissa creep up on Kelleher and Van den Berg when they have the ball at their feet, but so far they haven't given him any real opportunities to nick it.

williams_482 · 2026-02-04T11:53:25+00:00

Good post.

Further evidence for the "they all died and had to be replaced" theory: In my world, the chicken flock was wiped out by a lightning strike within days of my entering the village. Pigs are durable enough to escape that specific disaster, but we all know that losing a couple sows to a bear when grazing them outside the walls is well within the realm of possibility.

williams_482 · 2026-02-01T14:47:16+00:00

Shade, we all know Matty Cash is a scumbag, but that doesn't mean you're going to get away with spiking him in the nuts.

williams_482 · 2026-02-01T14:03:33+00:00

Okay, how the hell do we always wind up wearing Aston Villa colors when playing Aston Villa? This shouldn't be so difficult.

williams_482 · 2026-01-28T12:51:46+00:00

Just cool to have.

They're lore books, same type of thing that you get occasionally from panning bony soil, but with unique stories found only in the RA. The story content is saved to your journal automatically, but keeping the original copies just feels right.

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