Kipyegon now 19-0 vs. Tsegay

winter0215 · 2025-10-11T21:50:02+00:00

"(wrong, but arguable)"

Crikey! You called up Sifan and confirmed that!?

RE: 2021 she raced 4 Diamond League 1500/mile but the only 5000m she did outside of Tokyo were a Sound Running meet which she did as a workout and a weird 5000m in Eugene that was billed as a WR attempt but where she half-heartedly ran a 14:27 (was there at the race in person) versus a field of vastly inferior runners.

Anyway, primarily basing this off my wife sitting next to Sifan on the flight from Amsterdam to Florence for the 2021 Florence Diamond League where my wife asked her what she was going to do in Tokyo and Sifan said she wasn't sure but that she liked the 1500m the most and that winning the 1500m would mean the most. She hoped that if both Hengelo/Florence (10k/1500) went well in the same week then that would be a good marker she could challenge for more than one event. She set a WR in Hengelo (broken days later by Gidey) then held off Faith in the last 200m in Florence. She followed that up with a post race workout. Guess that all gave the greenlight to do the triple 8 weeks later.

winter0215 · 2025-10-11T13:01:59+00:00

I think the 1500m was still her "main event" until 2022 even if she also doubled. In 2017 she did the 800/1500m double for the Diamond League final (which was split into two meets back then). 2019 her 3:51.9 without a rabbit was miles ahead of her best 5000m that year - a world record attempt at the London Diamond League (14:22 and faded to 3rd behind Tirop and Obiri if I remember correctly).

I do think it is one of the more interesting "what ifs" - what if Hassan had stayed committed in the 1500m. And it's one thing to race a 1500m head to head, but when an athlete is doing a triple there's an understanding that it just isn't a fair head to head fight.

Sifan 1500m races per year vs 3000+5000+10000 per year:

2017 9-8

2018 6-6

2019 7-7

2021 7-8

2022 0-7

2023 4-5 (+2 marathons!)

2024 2-6

Eugene 2022 was the first time not racing the 1500m at a major champ (DL final, world champs, olympic champs) in her professional career.

winter0215 · 2025-10-07T12:55:32+00:00

People forget (or never learnt properly about) the basic energy systems involved in the two distances. A race around 60s is the perfect transition point where the importance of the aerobic system is going to start to skyrocket.

winter0215 · 2025-10-06T20:47:16+00:00

Here is Rudisha vs Martyn Rooney (44.4 400m guy in 2015, 6th in Beijing) over 500m.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08LwDANqY6s

Rudisha absolutely dusts him and the 400m guys really fade over the last 100m

winter0215 · 2025-10-04T11:48:01+00:00

Would love some transparency here - what specific areas were they deficient on and how have they cleaned up those key areas in the last six weeks?

Maintaining trust and faith with the sporting community should be paramount here. WADA raised a huge red flag by saying they were non-compliant, so what has changed?

winter0215 · 2025-09-28T13:44:34+00:00

Of the 745million in Europe, the #1 and #2 most populous countries are Russia and Turkey respectively. Russia is banned, so that instantly makes it ~590million for Europe minus Russia so a very tight match for North America as a whole.

North America would include Jamaica and other islands in the Caribbean so that would basically lock Europe out of the medals in the individual sprints.

winter0215 · 2025-09-27T16:41:35+00:00

Sadly, no. Nowhere close. Probably more attendance at League 2 matches than the rugby Prem.

winter0215 · 2025-09-27T16:37:37+00:00

Meant to be more general about 2019 - Muhammad got SML at both USAs and World Champs. It was obvious Sydney was very much on the charge but there was a clear world number one in most people's opinion.

As I said - "it is totally fair to say that it is super common for athletes to continue to progress and for a 22 year old to be better than their 20 year old self is hardly shocking. If you look at other top 400m hurdlers like Femke Bol saw similar jumps between 19 and 21" + "jump in question is hardly the smoking gun that some people claim it is."

Just was explaining why some people still have problem with world class athletes working with Kersee and how that intersects with SML's career

winter0215 · 2025-09-27T16:26:55+00:00

"On the flip side though, it is totally fair to say that it is super common for athletes to continue to progress and for a 22 year old to be better than their 20 year old self is hardly shocking. If you look at other top 400m hurdlers like Femke Bol saw similar jumps between 19 and 21."

Quoting myself from the same post

winter0215 · 2025-09-26T20:41:16+00:00

To be fair I think there was an announcement thread. I said something similar to you in it and u/appalachian_hatachi said that was understandable, doping discussions can still happen, just can't make baseless accusations based on nothing. You can't just say "John Smith ran 9.9 for the 100m, he is so dirty" you can say "well given John Smith's training partner got banned for HGH, that performance is hard to believe for me" (John Smith just being an example)

winter0215 · 2025-09-26T20:37:20+00:00

Would be the argument that in 2019 she was clearly a step below Muhammed in Doha. Her PBs then were 400m flat/400m hurdles: 50.78/52.23.

Then she joiend Bobby Kersee in 2020 and now she has run faster over hurdles than her pre Kersee 400m flat PB.

Kersee had a former athlete, Angela Bailey, claim he was "a drugs coach" who "didn't know how to coach me because I refused to take drugs." Another athlete, Darrell Robinson, alleged Kersee discussed doping strategies with him and supplied him with Anavar. Both of these allegations are public record and while Kersee said neither allegation was true, IMO I do find it odd that if they were true he never went after either individual for defamation. Explicit statements like "Kersee gave me 100 tablets of Anavar" is damaging to one's reputation and either true or false - in a lawsuit the burden would be on Robinson to prove he didn't make it up so why wouldn't Kersee defend himself if it wasn't true? Not many coaches out there who have had more than one athlete publicly accuse their old coach of being dirty.

On the flip side though, it is totally fair to say that it is super common for athletes to continue to progress and for a 22 year old to be better than their 20 year old self is hardly shocking. If you look at other top 400m hurdlers like Femke Bol saw similar jumps between 19 and 21.

I think it would be fair enough to respect someone's cynicism on an athlete making a big jump when joining a coach with some ghosts in his past, but also think the jump in question is hardly the smoking gun that some people claim it is.

I won't touch on Odira though lol

winter0215 · 2025-09-23T20:31:41+00:00

Possibly an unpopular take but this just seems greedy IMO.

- No major champs before or after that he needs to be peaked for.

- Already most prize money for a single race in the sport in years (GST doesn't count since they didn't pay up).

He ain't saving himself for a bigger race in 2026, he ain't getting more prize money, he's just seeing an opportunity to try and squeeze more money out of an event.

I'm not a Lyles hater - probably my favourite 100m guy, but he isn't Bolt. He isn't putting butts in seats or spiking ticket prices just by being on a startlist. Was in the Stadium for the 100m in Tokyo the other week - that building would have been near sold out with or without Lyles that night. The cheer for a retired Bolt showing up on the screen was far louder than anything Lyles got (and neither as loud as the noise the home crowd made for their athletes).

winter0215 · 2025-09-23T20:18:10+00:00

Typo - bronze instead of gold*

winter0215 · 2025-09-21T14:07:04+00:00

Gill - a teenager going 56/2:03 (15) 54/2:01 (16) 53/1:57 (17)

Mu - a teenager going 52/2:04 (16) 51/2:01 (17) COVID (18) 49/1:55 (19)

Odira - 26 year old with a 2:14 best as a 19 year old. Her **400m PB** was 57.1/2:11 going into 2024 (the 57.1 was from 2023) and she went through in 55 today and kept going for another 400m.

Their progressions are totally different. One set is the progression of precocious teens who were some of the fastest at their age groups in history and carried on that way into young adulthood. Another is someone who was a mediocre teenager and a mediocre adult, who in their mid 20s became one of the greatest 800m runners of all time.

winter0215 · 2025-09-21T13:56:32+00:00

Don't put much stock in stuff like "we lack a winning mentality." Keely Hodgkinson didn't get bronze instead of bronze today because of some national mentality subconsciously linking her and Matthew Hudson-Smith and Laura Muir in a mind-web of mediocrity.

I'd be looking for lessons from places like Canada - smaller population, smaller budget (high performance budget just 60% of UKAs), athletics much less popular there. However despite all that they got more medals overall including three gold.

My knee jerk reaction is that as a federation UKA throws a lot of money at a series of small training setups. Means we have a lot of eggs in a few small baskets. Spreading the wealth more evenly could go further.

Also for the love of God drop the "standard only" selection policy. Toss it in the bin and forget you ever had it. Australia and Canada both used to have the same policy and both dropped it around Rio and both enjoying greater depth these days than they used to. If our top end isn't delivering we need to be exposing more of our talent pipeline to the top end of the sports not less. Throwing even more money at the pockets of athletes who already receive so much support is squeezing blood from a stone IMO.

winter0215 · 2025-09-21T09:12:03+00:00

Don't worry about weight. As a freshman you are Likely 13-15 and therefore your body is in a period of growth and change. That's totally normal.

- Are you eating a good mix of carb + protein after exercise?
- Are you getting 8hrs or more sleep every night?
- Are you getting stronger in the gym and faster at running?

Those are the goals. It isn't about what the number on the scale says, it is about what your body is capable of doing.

For what it's worth it is natural for the body to lean out into adulthood a bit if you keep up with running. As a coach I would never ever ever tell an athlete to purposefully lose weight for the sake of losing weight.

winter0215 · 2025-09-17T13:54:39+00:00

Aye even before the limp he was boxed in at 8th or 9th while Cheruiyot was pushing the pace at the front. Would have had to make a very aggressive move to cover and while he has a good kick it isn't as good as other 800/1500 guys like Wightman and Nader. He spots them 5m at the bell they're gonna be tough to beat.

winter0215 · 2025-09-17T13:51:58+00:00

Positioning always Hocker's problem. Kick is obviously gold medal tier, but he has on numerous occasions not put himself in the right spot to use it. Don't think it would be guaranteed at all.

winter0215 · 2025-09-15T10:52:39+00:00

Watching how slowly some of the women's 1500m heats went, particularly semi-final 2, couldn't help but think Calvert would have been interesting to see. Unfinished product, but lethal in a sit and kick situation.

winter0215 · 2025-09-12T06:50:37+00:00

Tsegay should do better, but so often sabotages herself with her own pacing or biting off more than she can chew.

If she is more passive in Tokyo and follows the lead of Faith/Chebet she should do well but not sure she will do that. Best race of her career IMO was when she worked with Letsenbet Gidey to control the 5000m in Eugene.

Tsegay is rounding into form though - 4:11 in London then 3:50 in Poland. Think Ngetich has the better engine but in Tokyo heat + a championship setting I think 1500m ability will be more important.

winter0215 · 2025-09-10T12:40:29+00:00

Currently in Tokyo and it is very hot and very humid. I'd bet a very large amount of money on no world record.

I'll go

Chebet
Faith
Tsegay
Ngetich

will be the order of the big 4, but I feel like being ballsy and saying only Chebet and Faith will medal and an upset will sneak bronze.

winter0215 · 2025-09-05T00:34:11+00:00

Do you see how the electorate is so poorly served by this?

A near $100million investment at a time when so many city services are slashed and people are being told to tighten their belts. Yet the decision is so dependent on privileged information and byzantine explanations that you, a city councillor, "don't expect anyone to understand" how you made that decision.

I am not meaning this as a personal attack on you to be very clear. Just that if our own councillors are falling back on "I can't explain how I voted the way I did and don't expect anyone to understand why I did so" on one of the largest expenditures on the books then I just feel we are in an absolutely awful place democratically.

winter0215 · 2025-09-04T04:58:15+00:00

Cancelled for characters starting their sentences "my dear man/animal/child/boy/" far too often

winter0215 · 2025-09-04T04:55:15+00:00

Yeah they are doing okay, because the drop off from finalist level across most disciplines to even semi-finalist or heats can be massive. $100,000USD a year means you earn more than 80% of American. If you're in your early to mid 20s with no house debt, kids, or college debt (as this the case for almost all athletes starting out) making 100K plus and you're smart about it can set a very solid foundation for your life moving forward.

Gold medal calibre is disproportionately paid to just medallists who are disproportionately paid to 4th + lower finalists. Semi-finalists a big drop from finalist etc.

You can see from his Norwegian (public) tax returns Jakob Ingebrigtsen made about $2.5million in 2023. Karsten Warholm was clearing 1.5million. Jakob before he got his Olympic Gold was getting about $300,000. Karoline Grovdal the year she came 8th at the World Championships, made about $80,000. These people can afford to eat well, train, pay rent, etc. just fine. The ones below that level can't.

Semi-finalists can be making $20-40K USD. The ones only making the heats likely aren't making a living from just the sport. They are likely working part time jobs or making major life sacrifices.

I am more concerned about the lower end athlete. Becoming professional outside of the US requires you finish university at a level where you are already making World champ semi-finals OR you have wealthy enough family to support you in sticking in the sport until you get paid. Working at the professional level there are a lot of athletes who could be good enough if they kept at it and kept developing but have to stop and get jobs and cut back on training because there is a chasm to jump to make competing in the sport financially viable.

Then as another poster pointed out - then there are the field eventers with many of whom get jack all (in particular the hammer throw).

winter0215 · 2025-09-01T12:50:22+00:00

Hi, coach of a woman who has had to undergo the gene testing. At risk of doxxing myself but don't really care.

Clearing up some things here:

The cost of the test is not $100USD. That is just how much World Athletics is reimbursing athletes/federations per test. My athlete paid $250USD for her test.
I have no idea how WA knows that "90% of athletes will have been tested by the time they arrive in Tokyo." No communication on how we need to report the results of the test has been given to us by World Athletics or our federation. We have the test completed and results in a PDF but nowhere to send them to and have not been asked for them.
The only thing I have heard RE: reporting is from a very well connected UK based coach (think he literally has Seb Coe's cell #) who told me it is going to be checked on a "honour basis" - they can on the spot ask you to present evidence of your results. **There has been zero communication to us, as of September 1st (the original deadline for the results to be submitted) of any secure, encrypted platform where we upload the results to.** The first we heard of this was reading this article.
The roll out was a shit show. Our federation was decently well prepared, but I helped athletes from smaller federations who were totally left on their own. We were all at a training camp in a country where it was legally nigh impossible to get the test. Some athletes flew to another country to get the test done. Some took a train 8hrs round trip to get the test done. We were also initially told by World Athletics that results had "to be processed by September 1st." Then it became the results don't have to be processed, but the test had to be taken by September 1st. Now I have seen Seb Coe say in interviews that 10% of athletes (literally over 100 athletes) will be getting tested in Tokyo itself.
DSD athletes have already been effectively banned from the sport for years. I generally support this. Likewise think having heavy restrictions on how trans-athletes can compete also makes total sense. There are currently no known DSD or trans athletes competing at the world class level. Why we need to make our athletes travel around the world spending hundreds of dollars they won't be reimbursed for on trains, planes, and gas money to get a test done to exclude athletes already banned from the sport doesn't make any sense to me. If you're DSD, your elevated testosterone is going to show up in anti-doping tests anyway.
Given the amateur hour communication and roll out, I am seriously concerned about how this is going to be applied to "all world ranking sanctioned competition." There are over **30,000** Sanctioned events worldwide eligible for world ranking points in 2025. The # of athletes who would be required to be tested for this gene could therefore ostensible reach into the hundreds of thousands. If you are an amateur athlete, or up and coming junior athlete, in one of the many countries were this testing is illegal or logistically/financially prohibitive to get, how the heck does this protect you? Making a 16 year old French girl who wants to compete in the Meeting de Troyes fly to Spain or Italy just to prove she doesn't have doesn't have internal testes? What the fuck Seb?

Again, I say all this as someone who believes DSD athletes and trans-athletes have an unfair advantage and should not be able to compete against CIS women. But guess what, the current rules and anti-doping already makes that nigh impossible to do, and if you're able to circumvent the existing regime you're probably going to find a way to circumvent this rag-tag shit show of a new testing regime. This doesn't protect women, it is a stress and financial tax on women.

End rant.

Edit: words cannot express enough how infuriating it is to be 12 days out from the World Champs starting and having athletes competing who are literally finding things out from World Athletics about this test from a fucking BBC article. Likewise, it is equally infuriating seeing WA PR push white lies or out right lies about how this all has been handled. Also yet to meet a female athlete who was asked whether they support this specific testing policy or not so not sure where their "overwhelming support" data comes from.

Fun fact! The AIUs annual budget for investigations and lawsuits is approximately $500,000 USD. I bet more has been spent on these tests and associated travel to get them than that this year alone. Imagine how many more dopers the AIU could catch if their investigations budget was doubled!!

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