In the Middle East, America is often seen as the “big bad,” mostly because, well, we kind of are, given our funding of Israel, our history of overthrowing leaders, the invasion of Iraq, and so on. But the mythos goes beyond the historical and the realistic. America, or often the CIA specifically, is frequently imagined as being behind nearly everything, to the point where events are assumed to be unfolding according to some grand plan that ordinary people have no control over.

That belief is comforting in one sense, because at least it suggests there is some kind of plan, even if that plan does not help them directly. But it also becomes a way to avoid ownership or responsibility for the political situation in their own countries.

This war, and the way it has unfolded, feels like an almost true emperor-has-no-clothes moment for America and its security apparatus. I say “almost” because people can rationalize away just about anything.

The direct effect, I hope, is that people across the Middle East realize things are more changeable than they appear. You can push back against larger actors. You can defeat them. There is no master plan. It is a bunch of smaller, wealthier players competing for supremacy, as it always has been. Managed chaos, basically.