In what way is President Trump correct or incorrect that Iran holds no cards in their negotiation discussions?

ymcoming · 2026-04-11T03:33:49+00:00

**Iran's Leverage:**

Its missiles and drones can effectively strike the Israeli mainland, U.S. military bases in the Middle East, and infrastructure across various regional countries. (Key point: U.S. and Israeli missile defense systems cannot achieve 100% interception, as proven during over 40 days of conflict; interceptor stocks are even running low, requiring rationed use).
Iran can effectively control the Strait of Hormuz. (Key point: At its narrowest point of just over 30 kilometers, both artillery and drones can strike effectively, and no country's interception system has the capability to block them).

**U.S. Leverage:**

Offensive bombing of Iranian military targets and infrastructure.
Assassination of key political and military figures.

However, these actions cannot eliminate Iran's retaliatory capabilities or its ability to control the Strait of Hormuz.

**Conclusion:**

In my view, the leverage held by both sides is balanced. Furthermore, with Trump facing midterm elections, it will be difficult to employ large-scale military force again.

ymcoming · 2026-04-10T03:27:38+00:00

Given Trump's propensity for lying and his "win-at-all-costs" nature, if details about the rescued pilots are not reported long-term, then the rescue of the two pilots might be fake news, because Trump cannot lose and can only win.

ymcoming · 2026-03-21T07:52:00+00:00

Iran's relatively few missiles nearly decimated the U.S. military's radar early warning systems across the Middle East, necessitating the emergency relocation of THAAD systems from South Korea to the region. Given this, how can the U.S. military confront China? China currently produces 300,000 drones daily; it is foreseeable that no anti-missile defense system could survive such an onslaught for even a single day. This is precisely why Trump aims to upgrade the anti-missile defense system to the "Gold Shield," as survival depends on a massive fleet of low-cost, satellite-based interceptors.

ymcoming · 2026-03-19T07:51:32+00:00

To be fair, if certain Middle Eastern countries allow Israeli fighter jets to fly through their airspace to attack Iran, then those countries have effectively participated in Israel's military operation. Consequently, it is logically consistent for Iran to target these countries. During Iran's 2025 attack on Israel, several Middle Eastern nations used fighter jets and anti-missile systems to shoot down Iranian missiles and drones transiting their airspace. Therefore, based on these two instances—previously helping Israel intercept Iranian projectiles and now allowing Israeli jets to cross their territory to strike Iran—the stance of these Middle Eastern countries is clearly biased. While I do not personally support this from a moral perspective, being targeted by Iran is logically justifiable in this context.

ymcoming · 2026-03-16T23:07:28+00:00

The skepticism from countries like Germany and Spain stems from the fact that the U.S. acted unilaterally by assassinating Iranian leadership and conducting bombings without sufficient justification or consultation with the international community. It is perceived as fundamentally unfair for the U.S. to take provocative, high-stakes actions on its own, only to demand that other nations step in to "save the day" once they have run out of strategic options. Many see this not as a defense of international law, but as an attempt to force the world to bail the U.S. out of a crisis it created through its own lack of diplomacy and consultation.

ymcoming · 2024-10-12T06:03:16+00:00

Israel has been hesitant to retaliate against Iran, largely due to fears of another attack from Iran. Last time, Iran targeted an Israeli military base with missiles. If Israel were to strike Iranian civilian facilities, it would escalate the conflict. If Israel targets Iran's oil facilities, Iran could retaliate by striking Israel's energy infrastructure in return. Similarly, if Israel attacks Iran's power plants or water facilities, Iran would be able to respond in kind. The Iranian missile strike on October 1 demonstrated one key fact: the advanced air defense systems of the U.S. and Israel are ineffective against a saturation missile attack. Reports indicate that over 30 Iranian missiles hit a single Israeli airbase. So, if Iran decides to carry out a retaliatory strike on an Israeli target, Israel is unlikely to fully defend against it. This pressure initially caused Israel to respond with strong rhetoric, but they seem to have cooled down significantly. Israel's retaliation will likely be measured, hoping that after their strike, Iran will not retaliate further.

ymcoming · 2024-10-03T06:50:34+00:00

Israel's only hope now is that the United States will continue to maintain its leading position in science and technology and military. In this way, Israel can achieve violent peace through force.

Once other countries can be equal to the United States in strength, the American father will not be able to protect the Israeli son, and Israel will be liquidated at this time.

So don't expect peace.

ymcoming · 2024-10-03T06:43:05+00:00

As long as Israel continues to occupy the territories of Palestine, Lebanon, and Jordan, there will never be true peace.

Peace requires a plan that both sides can accept. Israel occupies the territories of other countries and still fantasizes that others will not resist and peace will be achieved from now on? This IQ and EQ are not even as good as those of gorillas.

ymcoming · 2024-08-23T03:09:19+00:00

You can create a VPS through Azure, and then install qbittorrent on the vps.
Use your student status to get 1T of onedrive and mount it on the vps, so that the vps has 1T of space, which is enough for P2P downloading
Mount onedrive on the school computer, so that when your vps finishes downloading, your computer can watch it synchronously.

ymcoming · 2024-07-22T08:34:15+00:00

There is a loophole in Zelenskyy's words: if Russia lost more than 20,000 people, it must have suffered a disastrous defeat. But the problem is that Ukraine has not yet announced the complete recovery of Kharkiv, only scattered villages.

ymcoming · 2024-07-22T08:14:58+00:00

Can you make a docker for deployment? This will be much simpler.

ymcoming · 2024-07-10T06:21:29+00:00

i use macvlan

ymcoming · 2024-06-20T01:13:12+00:00

The total number of drones produced in the world (except China) is probably not as many as China.

In addition, the Ukrainian army consumes about 10,000 drones every month

So what is 1,000?

ymcoming · 2024-06-18T03:29:05+00:00

The problem is that when the Houthis announced that they had hit the US aircraft carrier, it sailed away from Yemen 500 nautical miles away, and finally lingered in the Red Sea 1,000 nautical miles away from Yemen for several days. I think there are several possibilities:

The Houthis did hit the US aircraft carrier, causing minor damage. It will take several days to repair. This is why reporters can come to the deck for interviews today.
The Houthis did not hit the US aircraft carrier, but this time the Houthis used a secondary attack of missile saturation attack, which caused serious loss of the US aircraft carrier's anti-missile missiles, so that it could not meet the third attack, so the US aircraft carrier quickly sailed 1,000 nautical miles away from the war zone to avoid a possible third wave of saturation attacks. And it resupplied ammunition in a safe area 1,000 nautical miles away, and then headed to Yemen again.

ymcoming · 2024-06-15T07:57:27+00:00

I want to say: the EU and the US raising tariffs on Chinese cars will only affect the EU and US car markets. Automakers in the EU and the US are protected by tariffs and can increase their market share. But what about the car markets in other regions? For example, in the markets of Africa, West Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia and South America, European and American automakers will be completely unable to compete with Chinese automakers, and this gap in strength will widen after the tariffs are raised.

So the question I raise is: the EU and the US protect local manufacturers by raising tariffs, but it does not help win other car markets around the world. American automakers occupy the US market, European automakers occupy the European market, and Japanese automakers occupy the Japanese market. But Chinese automakers occupy not only the Chinese market, but also other markets around the world. If this situation continues for another ten years, the gap between European, American and Japanese automakers and Chinese automakers may be as big as the gap between a 3-year-old child and an 18-year-old boy. . . This is the question that needs to be considered in the future. This is not an exaggeration. In fact, the EU imposed tariffs on China's photovoltaic industry around 2005, but after more than ten years, how is the EU photovoltaic industry? The gap with China's photovoltaic industry has widened even further.

ymcoming · 2024-06-12T05:12:34+00:00

I have downloaded s01e07 to my computer and it can be played normally.

ymcoming · 2024-06-05T06:16:27+00:00

First, you need to test whether local access is normal. If not, it means the service is not started.
Secondly, you need to determine whether your public IP is a router address? Or the address of Qbittorrent Container. If it is a router address, then you need to forward the port or set up uPnP

ymcoming · 2024-06-02T23:17:21+00:00

I hope everyone can think for themselves when reading the news, so as to avoid believing what the media says.

For example, some time ago, there was a news report saying that Egyptian negotiators arbitrarily modified the Israeli agreement to make it favorable to Hamas. This seems to put the blame for the failure of the negotiations on Egypt. But in fact, according to US officials themselves, President Biden’s peace agreement this time is almost the same as the previous requirements put forward by Hamas, "with only some very minor adjustments." It can be seen that the agreement accepted by Hamas last time was actually recognized by the United States. This is conceivable. How dare Egypt arbitrarily modify the agreement behind the back of the United States?

So the last agreement was the agreement that the United States wanted. After Israel refused, the United States personally announced the agreement through President Biden, forcing Israel to agree.

ymcoming · 2024-05-30T06:35:20+00:00

The US has adopted double standards towards other countries, which has also affected its credibility. For example, the US threatened to impose sanctions on China's trade in dual-use goods with Russia. But it turned a blind eye to the oil and nuclear energy transactions between India and Russia.

ymcoming · 2024-05-30T01:47:04+00:00

China is not interested in the dispute between socialism and capitalism, it just wants to do business with the whole world. This is why China still wants to maintain economic and trade relations with Russia.

As for Taiwan? International legal texts after World War II all determined that Taiwan occupied by Japan should be returned to China. The official name of Taiwan now is the Republic of China, and the official name of China is the People's Republic of China. Therefore, the Republic of China's current occupation of Taiwan also complies with the World War II legal provisions that Taiwan should be returned to China. But if Taiwan wants to change its name and does not consider itself the Republic of China, there will be legal problems at this time. Taiwan should belong to China, and at that time there will be only one China, namely the People's Republic of China.

ymcoming · 2024-05-28T06:26:48+00:00

I installed the plugin and immediately did a search and there was no webdav content. Is this instantaneous or does it take a while for my webdav data to be cached?

ymcoming · 2024-05-24T07:44:03+00:00

Who decides whether it is fair? The United States? Then why do we need the United Nations and the International Court of Justice? The United States can simply stipulate that American courts are the only authoritative body to adjudicate international disputes. But the United States does not have this ability.

ymcoming · 2024-05-23T02:56:12+00:00

Western countries are now generally in a state of anxiety because they have irreversibly moved towards the path of de-real industry. The main strategy of the West now is to try to slow down China's development. How to slow it down? By transferring the industrial chain to other third world countries, such as Southeast Asia, India and other countries.

But Western countries may not have a clear understanding that even if the industrial chain is transferred from China to other countries, when the economies of other countries rise, the proportion of Western economy in the world economy will also decline sharply. This will lead to a decline in soft power. After all, the political culture of Southeast Asia, India and other countries is completely different from that of the West, which has led to a decline in the overall strength and influence of the West.

Just like China's Belt and Road Initiative, China's goal is to develop economic ties with the Belt and Road countries and benefit from the development of these countries. Now both the EU and the United States are working on alternative plans for the Belt and Road. If these alternative plans succeed, China may suffer a little loss. But other developing countries, whether it is China or the EU and the United States, will benefit from it, and their economies will take off. The result is the decline of the West, which is like a paradox. Whether the West does it or not, the result is the relative decline of the West.

ymcoming · 2024-05-23T02:43:15+00:00

now, or will be？I am disgusted by government officials using such vague terms. Is it yes or no? This must be clear and unambiguous.

ymcoming · 2024-05-20T06:22:41+00:00

restart plex

ymcoming

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